La Liga · resolved market
Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd2b399f6262daca090cff21a1adc81533e75b0f89d1dc6822725df5f9917d11d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- La Ligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,861
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,155
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,861 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in La Liga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in La Liga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 30c | 4,741$1,399 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,398.69 | 4,740 | 47%2,230 W · 2,510 L | -23.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7b2c…af48backed Under | 36c | 901.12$324 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.12 | 640 | 46.9%300 W · 340 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under | 35c | 612.8$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.3 | 2,343 | 48.5%1,137 W · 1,206 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Under | 35c | 315.38$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.38 | 387 | 29.5%114 W · 273 L | +10.1wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8942…1e76backed Over | 65c | 307.69$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.69 | 43 | 67.4%29 W · 14 L | +5.0wins | +0.12per pick | 56cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2060…9186backed Over | 66c | 301.91$199 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.65 | 193 | 44.6%86 W · 107 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2d7…ba47backed Under | 36c | 250.15$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.05 | 72 | 50%36 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed Under | 19c | 248.9$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.29 | 69 | 29%20 W · 49 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00fe…eff7backed Over | 65c | 158$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.3 | 35 | 37.1%13 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x671e…7d17backed Over | 65c | 148.48$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.97 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa354…b85fbacked Over | 65c | 130$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.73 | 75 | 73.3%55 W · 20 L | +20.9wins | +0.28per pick | 45cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 73+0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x3a09…f9f7backed Under | 35c | 122$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 240 | 47.9%115 W · 125 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…5d17backed Over | 65c | 119$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.65 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Under | 10c | 116.33$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.91 | 3,449 | 43%1,484 W · 1,965 L | +32.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57d5…0bbdbacked Under | 16c | 105.47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.21 | 100 | 39%39 W · 61 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4289…3df1backed Over | 65c | 93.2$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.62 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f72…2fbfbacked Over | 65c | 80.96$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.96 | 116 | 51.7%60 W · 56 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over | 65c | 76.31$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.71 | 317 | 45.7%145 W · 172 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bc…cab7backed Over | 66c | 71.73$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.39 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +51.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0eb8…753bbacked Over | 65c | 69.23$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.23 | 104 | 16.3%17 W · 87 L | -10.2wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Over | 65c | 53$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.55 | 42 | 54.8%23 W · 19 L | +2.4wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Under | 31c | 45.7$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 572 | 52.1%298 W · 274 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ad…2c48backed Under | 35c | 45$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b59…a1cdbacked Over | 66c | 41.69$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc49c…6dcabacked Over | 65c | 40$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4cdb…ae41backed Under | 35c | 34$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0156…588cbacked Over | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -60.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x380c…1099backed Over | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.77 | 223 | 66.8%149 W · 74 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6894…59d8backed Under | 37c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd17…77fdbacked Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb7…8745backed Under | 35c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a98…1071backed Over | 66c | 24.24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.24 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaab6…607ebacked Over | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 245 | 46.9%115 W · 130 L | -8.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c50…ab35backed Over | 66c | 19.14$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.51 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +65%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xece5…43cfbacked Over | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 60cpaid | +56.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in La Liga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 1.5this page
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5Over won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 3.5Under won
- Rayo Vallecano de Madrid vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.