Serie A · resolved market
Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8d4f7b2fdbb894d7400bc3482ca2cb3d5d23a6d107cc773270621114210188f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- US Sassuolo Calcioof AC Milan, US Sassuolo Calcio
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $84,827
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $86,277
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $84,827 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked AC Milan | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed AC Milan | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed AC Milan | 0c | 24,997$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 423 | 47.8%202 W · 221 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee19…555ebacked AC Milan | 32c | 4,140$1,325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,324.75 | 60 | 48.3%29 W · 31 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed US Sassuolo Calcio | 78c | 3,177$2,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.36 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd55…c9bfbacked US Sassuolo Calcio | 69c | 1,449$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$449.28 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked US Sassuolo Calcio | 68c | 1,254$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$401.2 | 985 | 44.9%442 W · 543 L | -17.3wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked US Sassuolo Calcio | 68c | 649.89$442 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$207.97 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe94c…1edebacked AC Milan | 32c | 530.19$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.66 | 23 | 47.8%11 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6835…1976backed US Sassuolo Calcio | 69c | 235.43$162 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.98 | 233 | 53.6%125 W · 108 L | +14.7wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed AC Milan | 32c | 214.72$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.71 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed AC Milan | 18c | 199.98$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 204 | 52%106 W · 98 L | +4.1wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked AC Milan | 31c | 190.2$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.96 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc10d…e679backed AC Milan | 32c | 177.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.9 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6e…9bc5backed US Sassuolo Calcio | 69c | 161.22$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.98 | 33 | 57.6%19 W · 14 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 62cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked AC Milan | 15c | 123.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.49 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed AC Milan | 15c | 94.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.67 | 148 | 45.3%67 W · 81 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed AC Milan | 17c | 84.29$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.39 | 162 | 19.1%31 W · 131 L | -10.6wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed US Sassuolo Calcio | 69c | 80.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.38 | 210 | 54.3%114 W · 96 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe253…b9c7backed AC Milan | 34c | 74.32$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1c39…442dbacked AC Milan | 22c | 61.76$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.79 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked US Sassuolo Calcio | 77c | 50$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 467 | 42.8%200 W · 267 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e71…7913backed AC Milan | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +75.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x54a6…7401backed US Sassuolo Calcio | 68c | 33.87$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.84 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +4.0wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x35e7…8331backed AC Milan | 32c | 32.03$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.25 | 34 | 55.9%19 W · 15 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe11…18cfbacked US Sassuolo Calcio | 68c | 31$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 83 | 60.2%50 W · 33 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed US Sassuolo Calcio | 69c | 28.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.99 | 98 | 51%50 W · 48 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x099f…c1e1backed US Sassuolo Calcio | 70c | 24$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 115 | 47.8%55 W · 60 L | -6.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x17b6…af55backed US Sassuolo Calcio | 69c | 20.18$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 67cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…3d0ebacked US Sassuolo Calcio | 78c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.4 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e73…3f4ebacked US Sassuolo Calcio | 79c | 14.58$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.03 | 113 | 60.2%68 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)this page
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-2.5)AC Milan won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.