Serie A · resolved market
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x10fa47a155362e4fb26f33d378bb91eeea188d787b8b7d8ebfc0fd0f5e669baa
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,643
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $54,123
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,643 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf658…655ebacked Under | 66c | 3,777$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,276.57 | 38 | 63.2%24 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 31c | 2,499$772 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$772.09 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b75…433bbacked Over | 34c | 1,765$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 16c | 981.83$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.34 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 5c | 819$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.56 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5784…6788backed Under | 54c | 498.24$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.24 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc115…9138backed Over | 34c | 426.47$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -2.8wins | -0.11per pick | 42cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aa5…e01bbacked Over | 47c | 425.74$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | -3.1wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x300b…8e51backed Over | 11c | 324.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.25 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9f…557bbacked Over | 19c | 299.79$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.29 | 98 | 26.5%26 W · 72 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 32c | 283.82$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.82 | 687 | 50.8%349 W · 338 L | +3.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb20…3b5cbacked Under | 78c | 256.41$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.41 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | -3.1wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d76…6fd4backed Under | 68c | 161.76$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.76 | 101 | 47.5%48 W · 53 L | +6.9wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6021…4c5cbacked Over | 33c | 150.62$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -29%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b5c…126ebacked Under | 66c | 148.44$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.47 | 215 | 48.4%104 W · 111 L | +11.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…385abacked Under | 68c | 145.59$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -9.1wins | -0.16per pick | 59cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4c…2e02backed Under | 78c | 128.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.21 | 63 | 57.1%36 W · 27 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Under | 68c | 117.65$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.65 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaad3…d0d2backed Under | 50c | 104$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +3.2wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x88a2…68a0backed Over | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4f…9804backed Under | 66c | 99.99$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.5 | 153 | 54.2%83 W · 70 L | +11.3wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Under | 69c | 81.25$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.31 | 411 | 44.3%182 W · 229 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 32c | 77.8$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 249 | 53.8%134 W · 115 L | +20.7wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +12%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 21c | 72.9$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.96 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x958d…3501backed Under | 71c | 71.56$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.56 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | -7.5wins | -0.09per pick | 65cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc311…c154backed Under | 75c | 66.73$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.73 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.17per pick | 71cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Under | 66c | 65$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.1 | 652 | 54.1%353 W · 299 L | +19.2wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8928…2fe5backed Over | 48c | 62.21$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.76 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a67…af26backed Under | 71c | 56.34$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.34 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff2a…bfefbacked Under | 54c | 55.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -45.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8948…7e5ebacked Under | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b7c…4394backed Under | 65c | 46.15$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.15 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.12per pick | 68cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcac6…bdf8backed Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.1wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf255…3561backed Under | 68c | 44.12$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.12 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.20per pick | 55cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x27de…9b6abacked Over | 34c | 40.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.7wins | -0.28per pick | 44cpaid | -73.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6cf7…cb5bbacked Under | 79c | 37.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.97 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.09per pick | 69cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Over | 32c | 34.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.07 | 364 | 56.3%205 W · 159 L | +19.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0524…9dcebacked Under | 61c | 31.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.41 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x976e…8453backed Under | 64c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 23 | 69.6%16 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 70cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 75c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac1…fe20backed Under | 80c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5this page
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-2.5)AC Milan won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.