Serie A · resolved market
US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd460545315e141e1b6f5dfbc58d14e260a0178dfdfee9848b0d1e77be54b5b57
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Serie Aevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $54,198
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $55,268
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $54,198 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Serie A is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Serie A | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 0c | 25,000$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 460 | 47.4%218 W · 242 L | +10.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 0c | 20,570$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.57 | 385 | 47.8%184 W · 201 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x479e…91c3backed Under | 75c | 5,197$3,902 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,294.95 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +56.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 20c | 2,082$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.01 | 2,538 | 45.9%1,164 W · 1,374 L | +13.8wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 27c | 1,689$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.16 | 910 | 43.3%394 W · 516 L | -14.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 27c | 1,562$419 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.85 | 1,981 | 39.8%788 W · 1,193 L | -7.5wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Over | 18c | 310.51$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.69 | 317 | 38.8%123 W · 194 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9567…e505backed Under | 75c | 218.69$164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.86 | 26 | 61.5%16 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x133b…5856backed Over | 16c | 169.24$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x397e…3d84backed Over | 16c | 169.23$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.08 | 298 | 62.4%186 W · 112 L | +34.5wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3a5a…3427backed Under | 73c | 110$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.8 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddc…e874backed Over | 26c | 96.57$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.4 | 41 | 56.1%23 W · 18 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +17%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6a3c…84c5backed Under | 79c | 93.67$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.67 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 66cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6e5b…bb9abacked Over | 17c | 88.24$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xef18…4d70backed Over | 16c | 65.45$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 95 | 61.1%58 W · 37 L | +14.4wins | +0.15per pick | 46cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 19c | 62.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.08 | 217 | 48.8%106 W · 111 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a76…b30fbacked Over | 30c | 46.67$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 31 | 41.9%13 W · 18 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4060…e63cbacked Under | 72c | 41.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.67 | 19 | 31.6%6 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 42cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d50…d283backed Over | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 48cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x00fa…9af5backed Under | 77c | 39.99$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 68 | 60.3%41 W · 27 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb964…927fbacked Under | 76c | 25.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.98 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Serie A and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 4.5this page
- Spread: AC Milan (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: AC Milan (-2.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-1.5)US Sassuolo Calcio won
- Spread: US Sassuolo Calcio (-2.5)AC Milan won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 1.5Over won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 2.5Under won
- US Sassuolo Calcio vs. AC Milan: O/U 3.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.