Champions League · resolved market
Will Sporting CP beat Arsenal?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8dc96421055dba1fe74373b86415e4332ffba25ab4408fb4faf18c96b8e9ec3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $10,602
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,593
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,602 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked No | 71c | 1,959$1,394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$565.08 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaeb5…58e2backed Yes | 31c | 1,633$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 138 | 47.1%65 W · 73 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 1,583$1,138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.96 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 69c | 1,359$938 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$421.44 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 75c | 1,359$1,015 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$343.92 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x93bc…8ca3backed Yes | 27c | 1,000$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 239 | 42.7%102 W · 137 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed Yes | 29c | 999.98$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$289.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b32…5950backed No | 71c | 552$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.08 | 154 | 42.9%66 W · 88 L | +7.3wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked Yes | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d97…fbd8backed Yes | 2c | 500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -43%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50ef…3abdbacked Yes | 27c | 459.26$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05ad…72d7backed Yes | 27c | 410.12$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.73 | 29 | 48.3%14 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked Yes | 6c | 408.42$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf3a9…f104backed Yes | 30c | 334.17$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked Yes | 27c | 299.4$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.4 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed No | 72c | 249.99$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.2 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb26…8251backed Yes | 22c | 231.48$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed Yes | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked Yes | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xaeed…074bbacked No | 71c | 165$117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.85 | 86 | 53.5%46 W · 40 L | +4.5wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x37b9…3390backed Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 42 | 35.7%15 W · 27 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +35.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x087a…9d64backed Yes | 30c | 148.94$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes | 31c | 145.16$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaacf…5f84backed No | 71c | 142.25$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.25 | 206 | 67.5%139 W · 67 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 64cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2fe6…ab9dbacked No | 73c | 114.81$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x628d…bf43backed Yes | 32c | 109.38$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x649f…993ebacked No | 71c | 105.15$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +2.6wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe48e…8f7dbacked Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 70c | 99.99$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea4…e097backed Yes | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 31 | 51.6%16 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 55cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed Yes | 24c | 70$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.8 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41a5…dcc0backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e09…fd64backed Yes | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe220…f862backed No | 71c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.95 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9977…3020backed No | 70c | 55$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +3.3wins | +0.23per pick | 41cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec6…3a21backed Yes | 30c | 55$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9b35…a749backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -3.5wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b0…19dbbacked Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa319…bd72backed Yes | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked No | 70c | 46.68$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe947…2cf3backed No | 71c | 42.25$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 78 | 76.9%60 W · 18 L | +9.4wins | +0.12per pick | 65cpaid | +23%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x54e7…e35fbacked No | 72c | 41$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.68 | 57 | 64.9%37 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x44a2…5374backed Yes | 27c | 40.74$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 31c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xec76…01c4backed Yes | 30c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1266…cd8cbacked No | 71c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.25 | 97 | 52.6%51 W · 46 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Sporting CP beat Arsenal?this page
- Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP?Yes won
- Will the match between Sporting CP and Arsenal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.