Champions League · resolved market
Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0bd2607021db3c4797a9d7d71b5c33fe6d3c5e4158fb629e1098ca35210cc553
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,075
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $40,107
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,075 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 54c | 7,805$4,195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,194.89 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked Yes | 46c | 7,429$3,405 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,023.81 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9ccb…0a10backed No | 55c | 4,797$2,633 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,633.25 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +47.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 55c | 3,456$1,901 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,900.78 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0b6a…4873backed Yes | 45c | 3,348$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,848.38 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.9wins | +0.17per pick | 47cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…37ddbacked No | 35c | 1,560$551 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.9 | 111 | 32.4%36 W · 75 L | -5.0wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -23.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2769…fe74backed No | 33c | 1,439$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Yes | 45c | 1,250$563 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$687.5 | 115 | 48.7%56 W · 59 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ed6…da8abacked Yes | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +35.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe807…7c26backed Yes | 48c | 1,108$532 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.33 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +39.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…aeb9backed Yes | 44c | 1,083$475 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$608.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.56per pick | 44cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca95…fc40backed Yes | 46c | 1,003$461 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.65 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 40cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x09df…5ca9backed No | 55c | 999.96$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.98 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed No | 56c | 999.93$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.96 | 196 | 45.4%89 W · 107 L | -6.0wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5de…df2abacked Yes | 43c | 897.83$386 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$511.76 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2ec…3344backed Yes | 47c | 851.06$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$451.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0781…11cdbacked No | 55c | 668$367 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$367.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2a0…3d33backed Yes | 48c | 648.67$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$337.31 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.32per pick | 48cpaid | +69.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 5c | 589.74$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.08 | 257 | 35%90 W · 167 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8889…a9d1backed No | 57c | 583.92$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$332.83 | 164 | 47.6%78 W · 86 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac97…a99ebacked No | 54c | 500$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 47 | 51.1%24 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9541…3b71backed No | 55c | 485.65$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a67…dc7cbacked Yes | 44c | 463.64$206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$257.64 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe256…12f8backed Yes | 48c | 445.33$214 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.57 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x700f…62d8backed Yes | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 152 | 50.7%77 W · 75 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +13.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9ac5…6a3dbacked Yes | 46c | 394.1$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.82 | 53 | 52.8%28 W · 25 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +15%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4488…e319backed Yes | 45c | 273.33$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150.33 | 36 | 61.1%22 W · 14 L | +4.7wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +52.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf534…b055backed Yes | 47c | 255.06$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$135.18 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +26.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9bad…74a7backed Yes | 44c | 250$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +34.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c5c…2d34backed Yes | 44c | 236.36$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.36 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 42cpaid | +39.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6b…57c5backed Yes | 44c | 227.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.27 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.47per pick | 53cpaid | +93%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbac1…ce0ebacked Yes | 45c | 222.22$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.22 | 123 | 33.3%41 W · 82 L | -5.2wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4114…b9acbacked No | 56c | 209.15$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.12 | 110 | 36.4%40 W · 70 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaff0…3e1fbacked Yes | 44c | 207.95$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.45 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed Yes | 45c | 200$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110 | 244 | 55.7%136 W · 108 L | -7.9wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x047b…ef6fbacked Yes | 66c | 200$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe939…2af4backed Yes | 48c | 180$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.6 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | -2.0wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3486…49eebacked No | 46c | 153.2$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 286 | 39.9%114 W · 172 L | -4.7wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc2e7…35b1backed Yes | 47c | 150$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.5 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -17.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13ce…35f0backed No | 53c | 148.11$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.5 | 28 | 78.6%22 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.08per pick | 70cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcee6…b3b7backed Yes | 45c | 144.44$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.44 | 70 | 41.4%29 W · 41 L | +3.1wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1208…1feabacked Yes | 44c | 136.37$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.37 | 51 | 33.3%17 W · 34 L | -3.4wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdbf…c88ebacked No | 57c | 127.37$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 31 | 29%9 W · 22 L | -2.5wins | -0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3b7…520dbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 107 | 43%46 W · 61 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4687…c40ebacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33bc…37dcbacked No | 56c | 100$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 291 | 38.1%111 W · 180 L | -4.5wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x664b…8509backed No | 53c | 99.99$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x362c…ac6ebacked Yes | 58c | 94.78$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.78 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe227…55d8backed No | 57c | 87.72$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 40 | 45%18 W · 22 L | -3.5wins | -0.09per pick | 54cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f41…83f5backed No | 50c | 76.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.98 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1306…c689backed Yes | 44c | 68.18$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 62 | 54.8%34 W · 28 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8a27…fe44backed Yes | 45c | 66.67$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +3.5wins | +0.19per pick | 36cpaid | +59.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2b52…b641backed Yes | 44c | 56.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.82 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 57cpaid | +46%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb701…7cf6backed Yes | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.56 | 84 | 33.3%28 W · 56 L | +3.5wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +35%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74f1…16a8backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 55 | 29.1%16 W · 39 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -18%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x538a…bd78backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5e1d…6e74backed Yes | 45c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 62cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad9d…9b95backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 65 | 46.2%30 W · 35 L | -1.7wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xed1f…3462backed Yes | 44c | 45.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.45 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca4b…9e65backed Yes | 47c | 40$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.2 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83cc…bd5cbacked No | 54c | 37.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 53cpaid | +69.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f1d…32f3backed No | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 47c | 34.48$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.21 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1872…1962backed No | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5138…1d4dbacked Yes | 44c | 34.09$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bb4…64a0backed Yes | 47c | 31.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe90…4774backed Yes | 44c | 30.23$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.93 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.0wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +69.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2399…2332backed Yes | 47c | 30$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c05…fc5ebacked Yes | 48c | 28.94$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.05 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd629…58cbbacked No | 57c | 22.79$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 64cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Arsenal beat Sporting CP?this page
- Will Sporting CP beat Arsenal?No won
- Will the match between Sporting CP and Arsenal end in a draw?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.