Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8eb91acf2283429209e0352826d5070e00b6d6db5695805d19fc9bf48a2557e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $42,974
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $44,916
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $42,974 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 70 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 1c | 3,024$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.67 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 24c | 2,109$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,600.88 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 2c | 1,294$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,267.82 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x438a…61c4backed Yes | 2c | 1,032$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,009.74 | 231 | 43.3%100 W · 131 L | +19.0wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +36.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 10c | 868.12$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.13 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff7…82c5backed No | 9c | 744.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.4 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 600.57$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576.75 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 11c | 429.69$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.74 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2d4…028ebacked Yes | 65c | 362.15$237 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.41 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 13c | 361.89$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.67 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 21c | 327.52$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.5 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 9c | 322.17$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.78 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 52c | 308.59$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.97 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 5c | 307.05$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$291.24 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x83bd…a2a0backed Yes | 3c | 297.7$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.57 | 37 | 13.5%5 W · 32 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed Yes | 35c | 270.85$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.23 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 45c | 214.92$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.34 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4ddc…b4f0backed Yes | 18c | 197.71$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.71 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 13cpaid | +88.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 6c | 190.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf143…b143backed Yes | 57c | 181.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 110 | 69.1%76 W · 34 L | +5.2wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x64ba…e04abacked No | 31c | 178.91$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.66 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 9c | 177.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$162.28 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 9c | 173.77$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$158.77 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xef98…b586backed Yes | 7c | 168$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.82 | 907 | 34.5%313 W · 594 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 21c | 154.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.7 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x488c…8c1cbacked No | 14c | 151.31$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.18 | 375 | 32.8%123 W · 252 L | +36.4wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +109.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 14c | 150.9$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130.39 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x589b…0381backed No | 9c | 149.4$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 30 | 43.3%13 W · 17 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 13c | 148.29$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.29 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 48c | 138$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.62 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef14…3edabacked Yes | 11c | 135.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.51 | 177 | 44.6%79 W · 98 L | -10.1wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 70c | 127.03$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.42 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ef2…faa5backed Yes | 43c | 115.53$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.2 | 428 | 49.5%212 W · 216 L | +45.8wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +23%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xe985…8cc8backed Yes | 11c | 114.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.52 | 83 | 25.3%21 W · 62 L | -2.4wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -41.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2751…d0b1backed No | 13c | 112.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.68 | 43 | 46.5%20 W · 23 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked No | 42c | 108.28$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.53 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 11c | 107$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.14 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 40c | 100.69$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.49 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 29c | 100$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.64 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd456…8a8bbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.31 | 45 | 42.2%19 W · 26 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -31.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2845…b637backed Yes | 23c | 95.51$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.34 | 853 | 30.7%262 W · 591 L | +28.2wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 11c | 92$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.62 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 25c | 90$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.43 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe25c…7908backed Yes | 48c | 81.63$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.77 | 228 | 57.5%131 W · 97 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 15c | 80.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc987…123abacked No | 75c | 80.1$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 46 | 63%29 W · 17 L | +3.0wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 21c | 71.01$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd23…fababacked No | 15c | 67$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 157 | 22.9%36 W · 121 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 55c | 66.1$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.42 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 54c | 64.3$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.01 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 66c | 63$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.63 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e04…3475backed No | 21c | 59.84$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -4.7wins | -0.20per pick | 64cpaid | -35.5%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…0087backed Yes | 71c | 59.01$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.01 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 36c | 55$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.22 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb801…369bbacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.3 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +130.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86ea…8800backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.65 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 32c | 48$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.82 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2654…b45fbacked Yes | 69c | 46.08$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.31 | 1,089 | 59.4%647 W · 442 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 59cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x437b…1840backed No | 47c | 46.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.57 | 39 | 59%23 W · 16 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 42c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.69 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6e69…6e36backed No | 77c | 38.73$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.6wins | -0.78per pick | 78cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 53c | 36.23$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.09 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…2236backed Yes | 36c | 30.3$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 70 | 47.1%33 W · 37 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 73c | 28.26$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.63 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 27.13$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.73 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f25…bee4backed Yes | 55c | 21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.45 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe91a…a33ebacked No | 76c | 19.62$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.11per pick | 61cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked Yes | 59c | 18.96$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.77 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb8b…8e96backed Yes | 80c | 16.29$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.29 | 32 | 68.8%22 W · 10 L | +1.6wins | +0.05per pick | 64cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.