Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd15570969b01e2a3b08570d31b6ab2a4385e2938f618fa11aa8f1350b031bafe
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $13,683
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $13,295
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $13,683 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 59 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x89f6…9914backed No | 73c | 545.46$398 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.46 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 17c | 391.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.78 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 14c | 390.07$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.61 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 75c | 259.85$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.33 | 2,010 | 61.5%1,237 W · 773 L | -1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 9c | 193.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd721…57a7backed Yes | 10c | 168$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.26 | 451 | 27.1%122 W · 329 L | +7.1wins | +0.02per pick | 25cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 16c | 166.87$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 12c | 156.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.15 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0af…cc7dbacked No | 47c | 152.89$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.3 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | +2.4wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 15c | 149.67$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8c…7b0dbacked Yes | 45c | 146.7$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.17 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…0087backed Yes | 69c | 145.43$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 11c | 142.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.68 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 30c | 142.64$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 74c | 139$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.92 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 75c | 133.35$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 44c | 121.56$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.91 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 20c | 110.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.04 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…0ac4backed Yes | 36c | 108.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.01 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9006…9fb8backed Yes | 26c | 108$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.41 | 270 | 37.4%101 W · 169 L | +12.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 14c | 106.93$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 13c | 105.22$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.24 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 11c | 104.57$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 15c | 102.51$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.48 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2109…58b3backed No | 48c | 92$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.12 | 53 | 37.7%20 W · 33 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc120…a7e3backed No | 75c | 90$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 1,299 | 54.1%703 W · 596 L | +24.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb385…3824backed Yes | 18c | 83.33$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 41 | 36.6%15 W · 26 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 14c | 81.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.16 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8db2…d0f5backed Yes | 17c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.6 | 721 | 25.5%184 W · 537 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2833…015ebacked Yes | 14c | 78.79$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.42 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 53c | 75.89$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161c…9f62backed Yes | 52c | 71$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 28cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 15c | 70.47$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed Yes | 15c | 69.23$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 72c | 64.3$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked No | 38c | 57.68$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.55 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 40c | 53.19$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.85 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 61c | 53.02$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.9 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 46c | 43.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55da…74efbacked Yes | 52c | 38.81$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 78c | 38.46$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.47 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3a0…b7a2backed No | 47c | 36.77$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.55 | 45 | 46.7%21 W · 24 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x164c…3e39backed Yes | 37c | 36$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.36 | 1,034 | 51.3%530 W · 504 L | +69.5wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +14%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 79c | 35.09$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 73c | 32$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.64 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 40c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed No | 56c | 28.51$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.4 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…e43ebacked No | 74c | 27.79$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 180 | 60%108 W · 72 L | -21.2wins | -0.12per pick | 72cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 50c | 25.01$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7deb…fd8abacked Yes | 69c | 24.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xebdb…5ac4backed Yes | 59c | 24.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 850 | 49.8%423 W · 427 L | -10.4wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea43…13babacked Yes | 54c | 24.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.05 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.12per pick | 48cpaid | -39.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 49c | 21.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.23 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93f0…b231backed No | 75c | 21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 64cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8786…6884backed No | 56c | 20.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.93 | 97 | 61.9%60 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 51c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.