Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xec6e4b93fa74d65cfbcfd75d51191f7e5d88694dd5010cd656eab39ff947ca30
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,880
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,880 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8d09…143fbacked Yes | 4c | 404.44$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 288 | 29.5%85 W · 203 L | +32.9wins | +0.11per pick | 18cpaid | +101.6%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed Yes | 8c | 215.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 13c | 189.26$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.2 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 9c | 178.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 12c | 148.18$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3e…f290backed Yes | 36c | 148.11$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 66c | 139$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 12c | 136.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.27 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 26c | 127.51$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.15 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 75c | 123.98$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.53 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 68c | 122.85$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.31 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 77c | 118$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.39 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Yes | 28c | 102$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.06 | 273 | 28.6%78 W · 195 L | -10.4wins | -0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 21c | 98.64$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.64 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e16…27c0backed Yes | 33c | 91.74$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 297 | 48.5%144 W · 153 L | +18.2wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb9cc…744abacked Yes | 28c | 81$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | -2.2wins | -0.08per pick | 33cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc482…3145backed Yes | 16c | 79.94$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.49 | 42 | 21.4%9 W · 33 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e52…91d6backed Yes | 27c | 75.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 605 | 23.3%141 W · 464 L | -21.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…0ac4backed Yes | 30c | 73.27$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.76 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 14c | 72$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 69.43$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.01 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6584…3f95backed No | 73c | 67.67$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.27 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -3.5wins | -0.12per pick | 68cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 69c | 67.05$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 16c | 67$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 35c | 65$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.75 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 29c | 65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.1 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 28c | 63.92$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.18 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 20c | 62.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.42 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9008…09f0backed Yes | 23c | 56.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.86 | 119 | 39.5%47 W · 72 L | +8.7wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 63c | 50$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 67c | 50$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.5 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 32c | 50$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6c…6ad3backed Yes | 34c | 49.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.82 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 72c | 47.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.38 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 71c | 44.26$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.74 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 71c | 42.36$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.3 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6248…27f6backed No | 76c | 42.01$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.23 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 61cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed Yes | 36c | 41.43$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…3a35backed No | 73c | 41.29$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 105 | 36.2%38 W · 67 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 26c | 38.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 80c | 35.62$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.12 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 31c | 33.85$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.64 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 73c | 33.77$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.12 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 71c | 29.48$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.46 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbb…d419backed No | 72c | 21.98$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.16 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 73c | 21.8$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 19.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf97a…3269backed No | 76c | 18.8$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.51 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -17%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 76c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.42 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x94b1…27cbbacked No | 80c | 18.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.75 | 975 | 70.6%688 W · 287 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 74c | 18.3$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed No | 71c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.93 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 73c | 16.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.54 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9c96…42efbacked No | 79c | 16.42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.45 | 31 | 83.9%26 W · 5 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 70cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.