Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xef87b6027cc0ea6f4444c4b1dbe4fc9a0c85ee559d7b3489145eefb05e38b361
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $12,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $12,283
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $12,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9d6a…819ebacked Yes | 10c | 312.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf56c…ad84backed Yes | 4c | 299.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 507 | 3.4%17 W · 490 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 41c | 269.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36f6…ae14backed No | 68c | 259$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.35 | 116 | 63.8%74 W · 42 L | +7.0wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfd36…a832backed Yes | 36c | 254.55$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.62 | 650 | 43.4%282 W · 368 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked Yes | 24c | 248.04$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.13 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8209…62b6backed No | 61c | 164.63$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.5 | 96 | 25%24 W · 72 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b3e…f290backed Yes | 40c | 146.81$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 40c | 143.71$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.17 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 20c | 137.95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.23 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf2a…e862backed No | 61c | 127.87$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.62 | 68 | 61.8%42 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29df…aeecbacked Yes | 34c | 120$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 140 | 43.6%61 W · 79 L | -4.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae68…064abacked No | 77c | 103.26$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.44 | 2,555 | 63.8%1,631 W · 924 L | +38.4wins | +0.02per pick | 62cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83cd…e218backed Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 94 | 48.9%46 W · 48 L | -3.4wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 38c | 100$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 63c | 95.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.44 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…e5debacked Yes | 22c | 93.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.24 | 312 | 19.9%62 W · 250 L | -40.4wins | -0.13per pick | 33cpaid | -59.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 60c | 93.98$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.74 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc327…d803backed Yes | 23c | 88.2$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 401 | 32.9%132 W · 269 L | +24.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x048e…0087backed Yes | 41c | 76.6$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.27 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 60c | 75.3$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.81 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 76c | 75.02$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.14 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 70c | 72.43$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.44 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0db3…5704backed Yes | 38c | 67$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 190 | 22.1%42 W · 148 L | -6.7wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 60c | 66$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.4 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 30c | 65.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2e…889fbacked Yes | 32c | 65.59$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 405 | 25.2%102 W · 303 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x567f…94b9backed Yes | 21c | 65.52$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.93 | 489 | 19.2%94 W · 395 L | -38.7wins | -0.08per pick | 27cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed Yes | 39c | 65.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.6 | 287 | 37.6%108 W · 179 L | -13.6wins | -0.05per pick | 42cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f26…93bcbacked Yes | 39c | 65$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.35 | 56 | 41.1%23 W · 33 L | -2.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x463d…abb2backed No | 60c | 63.43$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.37 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -7.3wins | -0.18per pick | 57cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x1b98…c0cebacked Yes | 41c | 60.98$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 51 | 35.3%18 W · 33 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 39c | 60.87$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf82…7513backed Yes | 27c | 60.46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.07 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x22a4…13e5backed Yes | 38c | 60$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 85 | 43.5%37 W · 48 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 65c | 57.55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.14 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a6c…6ad3backed Yes | 40c | 57$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.8 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 38c | 52.38$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.9 | 3,366 | 31.1%1,047 W · 2,319 L | -34.1wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 38c | 51.59$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 59c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.5 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8473…5511backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 91 | 28.6%26 W · 65 L | +5.6wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3f0d…0b2fbacked Yes | 31c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1d48…ba3cbacked Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 43 | 37.2%16 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xff06…c7d5backed No | 69c | 49.38$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 112 | 58.9%66 W · 46 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfc3e…0ac4backed Yes | 28c | 45.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -2.5wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -42.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x41dd…aaa2backed No | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf237…f6a5backed No | 61c | 40.06$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.79 | 30 | 76.7%23 W · 7 L | +4.3wins | +0.14per pick | 62cpaid | +24%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 57c | 39.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.19 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x070f…e902backed No | 75c | 39.56$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.89 | 114 | 59.6%68 W · 46 L | +2.7wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +10%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9892…fd59backed Yes | 38c | 39.47$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 60 | 45%27 W · 33 L | -3.2wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa4b5…73eebacked Yes | 29c | 38.4$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.28 | 10 | 80%8 W · 2 L | +1.7wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x52dc…33c9backed Yes | 39c | 38.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 769 | 36.3%279 W · 490 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x01a6…59b0backed No | 76c | 38.17$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.98 | 1,679 | 61.7%1,036 W · 643 L | +6.3wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e0…9796backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…0b0fbacked Yes | 40c | 35$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 41c | 32.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.26 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…9575backed Yes | 31c | 31.76$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 46 | 32.6%15 W · 31 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 74c | 30.48$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.98 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 65c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.5 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcca4…abb1backed Yes | 43c | 30$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 38cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 69c | 30$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.32 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1103…57e3backed No | 61c | 26.79$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.45 | 63 | 55.6%35 W · 28 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 56c | 26.75$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.77 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c93…8967backed No | 60c | 25.15$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.16 | 444 | 48.6%216 W · 228 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 63c | 24$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.88 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x558b…f41bbacked No | 70c | 22$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.61 | 286 | 60.8%174 W · 112 L | -15.8wins | -0.06per pick | 66cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 62c | 21.59$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.2 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 68c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.4 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x746d…2db5backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 74 | 67.6%50 W · 24 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 73cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c1…690cbacked No | 61c | 18.88$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.37 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 75c | 18.77$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.72 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6409…9411backed No | 71c | 18.57$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.39 | 825 | 62.2%513 W · 312 L | -23.9wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfaf3…782cbacked No | 63c | 18$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.66 | 1,876 | 63%1,181 W · 695 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 63cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 80c | 17.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.6 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.27 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24ac…c567backed No | 60c | 16.93$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.77 | 42 | 31%13 W · 29 L | -3.2wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 72c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.67 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 36°C on June 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C or below on June 2?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 35°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 38°C on June 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on June 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.