MLB · resolved market
Blue Jays vs. Mariners Series Winner
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa8f7858acb5219a96caaf3524daf3df731a4523b5f9b71d06f6a2c7455a5654c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Blue Jaysof Blue Jays, Mariners
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,228
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $18,511
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,228 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 28 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0f58…0ff0backed Blue Jays | 3c | 4,989$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,833.14 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +2.3wins | +0.38per pick | 28cpaid | +899.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70cf…f6cebacked Blue Jays | 32c | 2,441$787 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,654.93 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 32cpaid | -71.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Mariners | 44c | 1,862$825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$825.24 | 784 | 45.3%355 W · 429 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6be…fcfebacked Mariners | 68c | 1,728$1,169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,168.8 | 133 | 53.4%71 W · 62 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…ba8abacked Mariners | 51c | 1,263$647 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$646.88 | 64 | 15.6%10 W · 54 L | -8.0wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -47.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12e8…1f6ebacked Blue Jays | 29c | 529.59$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$377.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +73.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9efd…1880backed Blue Jays | 29c | 517.24$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.24 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe880…de2dbacked Blue Jays | 50c | 400$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$200 | 84 | 54.8%46 W · 38 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 60cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6256…7181backed Mariners | 50c | 400$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb7d1…4cb7backed Blue Jays | 23c | 257.56$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$198.69 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.5wins | +0.29per pick | 51cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1f1…2d5fbacked Blue Jays | 17c | 184.79$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.79 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +162.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f79…cccdbacked Blue Jays | 55c | 180.66$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.66 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +109%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc71f…bd62backed Mariners | 45c | 151$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.48 | 138 | 43.5%60 W · 78 L | -5.0wins | -0.04per pick | 47cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x531b…0c94backed Blue Jays | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.93 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb0b…e2a3backed Blue Jays | 57c | 105.91$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.91 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.9wins | +0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +34%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb708…354ebacked Blue Jays | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.45 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Blue Jays | 10c | 100$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 25 | 24%6 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98d…3560backed Blue Jays | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9998…e858backed Blue Jays | 14c | 88.97$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.87per pick | 14cpaid | +640.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c4e…b978backed Blue Jays | 35c | 79.2$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.16 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.09per pick | 16cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3483…e33abacked Mariners | 30c | 71.43$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.43 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.16per pick | 44cpaid | +23.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa57…bddbbacked Blue Jays | 56c | 62.74$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.74 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.48per pick | 52cpaid | +91.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Mariners | 44c | 55.91$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.6 | 84 | 64.3%54 W · 30 L | +8.7wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1302…a062backed Blue Jays | 29c | 51.59$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.69 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +32%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x54e4…ece5backed Blue Jays | 49c | 50.51$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.76 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a4c…6e7abacked Blue Jays | 43c | 46.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.51 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Mariners | 76c | 24.17$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.37 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Mariners | 48c | 23.3$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.15 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.