Tennis · resolved market
Targu Mures: Mili Poljicak vs Sumit Nagal
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa94dbd8e35cf59238eb7caa1d92591c5e38fa82eacbb1178b52448abd1ec1377
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Sumit Nagalof Mili Poljicak, Sumit Nagal
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tennisevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,923
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $32,581
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,923 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tennis is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tennis | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Mili Poljicak | 65c | 4,861$3,179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,179.17 | 1,365 | 43.3%591 W · 774 L | -26.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x08a3…8666backed Mili Poljicak | 67c | 2,248$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,500 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84ad…bfb7backed Sumit Nagal | 54c | 1,800$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$819.94 | 4,533 | 67.7%3,071 W · 1,462 L | +306.6wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Sumit Nagal | 38c | 1,489$572 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$916.75 | 11,435 | 43.4%4,959 W · 6,476 L | +17.8wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb4d2…ce99backed Sumit Nagal | 33c | 1,455$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$974.79 | 4,921 | 38.7%1,905 W · 3,016 L | -20.0wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6485…a265backed Sumit Nagal | 55c | 1,137$630 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$506.45 | 2,281 | 52%1,187 W · 1,094 L | +82.3wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Mili Poljicak | 50c | 1,026$510 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$509.59 | 8,217 | 45.5%3,737 W · 4,480 L | +166.6wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Mili Poljicak | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 359 | 55.7%200 W · 159 L | +20.3wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Mili Poljicak | 63c | 820.25$517 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$516.76 | 4,934 | 41.5%2,048 W · 2,886 L | -77.0wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6553…7a71backed Sumit Nagal | 50c | 606.16$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$304.64 | 1,125 | 51.1%575 W · 550 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x42c9…9623backed Sumit Nagal | 51c | 420.48$215 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.13 | 4,703 | 49.4%2,323 W · 2,380 L | +166.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c3…700cbacked Sumit Nagal | 48c | 375.08$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.09 | 1,688 | 45.4%766 W · 922 L | -10.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Sumit Nagal | 44c | 325.83$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.84 | 4,185 | 44.7%1,871 W · 2,314 L | +14.9wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c9…6686backed Mili Poljicak | 33c | 303.39$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.6 | 1,337 | 46%615 W · 722 L | +23.1wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98db…dd17backed Sumit Nagal | 40c | 276.98$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.45 | 5,350 | 56.4%3,016 W · 2,334 L | +228.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x92c8…45f6backed Sumit Nagal | 44c | 252.08$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.33 | 225 | 44.4%100 W · 125 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91b6…4b40backed Sumit Nagal | 19c | 205.42$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.42 | 306 | 25.8%79 W · 227 L | -28.6wins | -0.09per pick | 35cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x86b1…c094backed Sumit Nagal | 14c | 199.99$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.99 | 580 | 21.9%127 W · 453 L | +2.5wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52be…801ebacked Mili Poljicak | 53c | 188.68$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 307 | 49.8%153 W · 154 L | -6.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x489d…f6e3backed Sumit Nagal | 57c | 179.99$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.98 | 1,831 | 53%971 W · 860 L | -45.3wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x990e…cecfbacked Mili Poljicak | 71c | 176.06$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.3 | 23 | 60.9%14 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.08per pick | 69cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce7…3150backed Sumit Nagal | 50c | 169$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.5 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | +14.0wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…d474backed Mili Poljicak | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 889 | 35.2%313 W · 576 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5929…4684backed Sumit Nagal | 58c | 161.38$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.78 | 3,677 | 54.8%2,015 W · 1,662 L | +107.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Sumit Nagal | 45c | 151.78$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.04 | 8,828 | 36.1%3,190 W · 5,638 L | -193.3wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa42f…5f5abacked Mili Poljicak | 56c | 148.15$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.64 | 1,010 | 39.2%396 W · 614 L | -23.0wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e7…bf64backed Sumit Nagal | 46c | 146.99$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.8 | 1,094 | 52.4%573 W · 521 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6770…5bdfbacked Sumit Nagal | 66c | 134.28$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.66 | 969 | 45.9%445 W · 524 L | +7.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x775d…6bebbacked Mili Poljicak | 60c | 130.18$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.75 | 1,767 | 52.1%920 W · 847 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x365f…706abacked Sumit Nagal | 56c | 120.83$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.34 | 1,795 | 46.6%837 W · 958 L | +20.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe89c…9c72backed Sumit Nagal | 57c | 110$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.85 | 430 | 54.9%236 W · 194 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4fe…601fbacked Sumit Nagal | 57c | 107.72$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.59 | 6,449 | 46.3%2,987 W · 3,462 L | -42.9wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -13%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Sumit Nagal | 51c | 101.46$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.8 | 1,228 | 23.1%284 W · 944 L | -164.0wins | -0.13per pick | 36cpaid | -47%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xfe99…506bbacked Sumit Nagal | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.04 | 678 | 52.1%353 W · 325 L | -2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd034…eecebacked Mili Poljicak | 49c | 98.04$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.04 | 2,735 | 34%931 W · 1,804 L | -13.2wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b6b…ec86backed Sumit Nagal | 43c | 97.07$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.33 | 1,062 | 31.8%338 W · 724 L | -27.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Mili Poljicak | 31c | 96.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 483 | 55.1%266 W · 217 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2326…b627backed Sumit Nagal | 72c | 84.35$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.87 | 1,256 | 65.4%821 W · 435 L | +11.4wins | +0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Sumit Nagal | 32c | 83.57$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.83 | 5,416 | 48.6%2,633 W · 2,783 L | +14.5wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x133a…504abacked Mili Poljicak | 35c | 80$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 3,424 | 39.1%1,338 W · 2,086 L | -12.3wins | 0.00per pick | 39cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa461…878abacked Mili Poljicak | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | +10.1wins | +0.05per pick | 60cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x629d…756cbacked Mili Poljicak | 61c | 68$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.35 | 2,082 | 52.3%1,088 W · 994 L | +19.0wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8bb…7cefbacked Sumit Nagal | 48c | 62.57$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.58 | 367 | 43.6%160 W · 207 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Sumit Nagal | 51c | 62.12$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.44 | 3,256 | 48.2%1,570 W · 1,686 L | -53.4wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x076d…8d4cbacked Sumit Nagal | 52c | 61.63$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.89 | 4,241 | 52.6%2,232 W · 2,009 L | +65.0wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed Mili Poljicak | 56c | 61.54$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.4 | 6,720 | 36.9%2,479 W · 4,241 L | -95.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd1e…4754backed Sumit Nagal | 49c | 61.11$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.42 | 434 | 44.9%195 W · 239 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeea3…a6a2backed Mili Poljicak | 49c | 58.19$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.51 | 3,068 | 57.3%1,757 W · 1,311 L | +173.3wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xabb3…f5b0backed Mili Poljicak | 49c | 58.02$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.33 | 469 | 57.6%270 W · 199 L | +32.0wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32b4…8b21backed Sumit Nagal | 52c | 57.65$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.67 | 3,605 | 42.4%1,530 W · 2,075 L | -43.2wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Sumit Nagal | 55c | 53$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.85 | 925 | 48.8%451 W · 474 L | +20.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…33c9backed Mili Poljicak | 48c | 51.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.99 | 1,300 | 36.9%480 W · 820 L | -34.2wins | -0.03per pick | 40cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ba4…6de0backed Sumit Nagal | 55c | 51.02$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.75 | 280 | 48.9%137 W · 143 L | -14.9wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xab9f…75f1backed Sumit Nagal | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 514 | 45.5%234 W · 280 L | -2.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9af…359cbacked Mili Poljicak | 44c | 45$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 514 | 57.2%294 W · 220 L | +29.3wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f6a…9888backed Sumit Nagal | 63c | 43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 1,222 | 55%672 W · 550 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef3b…5af6backed Mili Poljicak | 47c | 42.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Mili Poljicak | 45c | 42$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.87 | 1,725 | 52.2%901 W · 824 L | -8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf970…f7f6backed Mili Poljicak | 49c | 41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.09 | 2,485 | 35.9%893 W · 1,592 L | -28.5wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9825…9ffcbacked Sumit Nagal | 49c | 40.82$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 499 | 43.5%217 W · 282 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2846…267fbacked Mili Poljicak | 47c | 40.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 53 | 56.6%30 W · 23 L | -1.9wins | -0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…1071backed Mili Poljicak | 47c | 40.4$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.94 | 40 | 47.5%19 W · 21 L | -4.0wins | -0.10per pick | 58cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x32cc…68b3backed Mili Poljicak | 47c | 38.3$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,678 | 50.8%852 W · 826 L | +30.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f3…d6dcbacked Sumit Nagal | 58c | 34.98$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.72 | 870 | 60.2%524 W · 346 L | +28.4wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Mili Poljicak | 58c | 33.75$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.41 | 1,062 | 42%446 W · 616 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26bd…a06dbacked Mili Poljicak | 65c | 30.77$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 56.5%13 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Mili Poljicak | 35c | 29.91$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 3,220 | 40.5%1,305 W · 1,915 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c99…0c88backed Mili Poljicak | 43c | 26.35$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 9,286 | 44.3%4,110 W · 5,176 L | -245.7wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Mili Poljicak | 56c | 24.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 2,044 | 53.8%1,100 W · 944 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd100…853dbacked Mili Poljicak | 47c | 24.43$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.58 | 604 | 46.7%282 W · 322 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5b…3b06backed Sumit Nagal | 44c | 24.2$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.57 | 86 | 54.7%47 W · 39 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Mili Poljicak | 52c | 24.1$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.62 | 8,505 | 42.6%3,619 W · 4,886 L | -166.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde2f…ad33backed Mili Poljicak | 54c | 24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 253 | 36.4%92 W · 161 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x692b…b4f2backed Mili Poljicak | 48c | 21.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.33 | 457 | 44.2%202 W · 255 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x80d8…b703backed Sumit Nagal | 51c | 20.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.96 | 4,765 | 47%2,238 W · 2,527 L | -82.2wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba6e…bc14backed Sumit Nagal | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.63 | 30 | 53.3%16 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df7…1ec1backed Mili Poljicak | 69c | 15.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 1,853 | 57.7%1,069 W · 784 L | +106.8wins | +0.06per pick | 52cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x88f9…5c03backed Sumit Nagal | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.25 | 365 | 57.3%209 W · 156 L | +16.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tennis and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.