Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 18?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa972b41e8e2f922c6719b8f3801a4622432877076ed9e7c284853781cbcd6f7d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,278
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,569
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,278 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xbbb7…a11abacked Yes | 34c | 1,914$660 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,253.88 | 1,196 | 57.9%693 W · 503 L | +47.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87ec…138fbacked No | 68c | 521.1$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$351.96 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -18.6wins | -0.16per pick | 52cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 35-0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd251…4d37backed Yes | 15c | 494.99$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.74 | 1,697 | 42.4%720 W · 977 L | +56.9wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x95d3…6effbacked Yes | 20c | 350.71$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$280.57 | 317 | 48.6%154 W · 163 L | +16.0wins | +0.05per pick | 44cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 14c | 284.98$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.55 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe40a…e4a2backed No | 65c | 269$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.3 | 1,316 | 56.2%740 W · 576 L | -18.6wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 60c | 247.85$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.83 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8dc…f31fbacked Yes | 37c | 232.27$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.34 | 4,525 | 26.7%1,206 W · 3,319 L | +62.2wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9506…1c4fbacked No | 67c | 215.46$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.36 | 815 | 58.5%477 W · 338 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 57cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed No | 24c | 201.2$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.12 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 79c | 187.16$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.92 | 584 | 22.8%133 W · 451 L | -26.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2572…80dbbacked Yes | 31c | 166.33$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.2 | 144 | 46.5%67 W · 77 L | -3.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked No | 58c | 164.85$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.26 | 771 | 51%393 W · 378 L | +23.7wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x229c…b966backed No | 18c | 157.59$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.3 | 1,567 | 37.2%583 W · 984 L | +243.6wins | +0.16per pick | 22cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x5203…b975backed Yes | 33c | 150$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.59 | 186 | 41.4%77 W · 109 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 68c | 150$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.6 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…fcc1backed Yes | 78c | 146.38$114 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.21 | 240 | 46.7%112 W · 128 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c3a…8792backed No | 59c | 137.5$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.5 | 180 | 45.6%82 W · 98 L | -3.9wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda35…b2dbbacked Yes | 65c | 137.09$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.73 | 462 | 40.5%187 W · 275 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x019c…e8d2backed No | 65c | 135.63$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.91 | 565 | 43.5%246 W · 319 L | -31.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -12%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 77c | 109.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.1 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed No | 66c | 105.88$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.34 | 2,102 | 56.5%1,188 W · 914 L | +61.4wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…9288backed No | 72c | 104.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.14 | 172 | 62.2%107 W · 65 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 64cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf13…b91abacked Yes | 20c | 95.89$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.02 | 264 | 42.4%112 W · 152 L | +12.8wins | +0.05per pick | 38cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9b12…c2d5backed No | 70c | 95.75$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.98 | 2,090 | 56.7%1,186 W · 904 L | +60.1wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x65f7…86ddbacked Yes | 19c | 93$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.6 | 257 | 58%149 W · 108 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x13de…fd91backed No | 80c | 82.38$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.91 | 755 | 46.1%348 W · 407 L | -32.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 77c | 80.25$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7342…d5b4backed No | 71c | 68$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.28 | 159 | 66.7%106 W · 53 L | +8.5wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed No | 54c | 67.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.88 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb32…79aabacked No | 63c | 66.27$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 1,187 | 62.2%738 W · 449 L | +27.8wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…603bbacked Yes | 29c | 59.97$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.86 | 48 | 64.6%31 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa12d…4c1bbacked No | 70c | 59.94$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.96 | 202 | 41.1%83 W · 119 L | -6.2wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked No | 59c | 56.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.37 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked No | 31c | 56.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.64 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 21c | 51.29$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.39 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 57c | 49$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed No | 74c | 48.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.94 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 64c | 45.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.53 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked No | 70c | 43.94$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb84c…e169backed Yes | 31c | 43.1$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.62 | 417 | 52%217 W · 200 L | -11.4wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 56c | 40.03$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.42 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40eb…ade9backed Yes | 57c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.2 | 495 | 47.1%233 W · 262 L | +6.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb58…407abacked Yes | 30c | 38.95$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 2,424 | 26.2%636 W · 1,788 L | +18.0wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed No | 49c | 38.82$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 2,124 | 57.4%1,220 W · 904 L | +69.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xea34…33bcbacked Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.5 | 63 | 61.9%39 W · 24 L | +3.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 35c | 34.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.25 | 982 | 36.7%360 W · 622 L | +37.9wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +9.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed No | 59c | 34.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa328…4977backed No | 63c | 32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.16 | 805 | 60.6%488 W · 317 L | +6.8wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b6e…5848backed No | 69c | 31.38$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.65 | 241 | 41.1%99 W · 142 L | -1.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x351a…f836backed Yes | 61c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.7 | 286 | 49.3%141 W · 145 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…c61bbacked No | 51c | 29.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa047…4ffabacked No | 67c | 29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.34 | 760 | 59.2%450 W · 310 L | -15.6wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 69c | 25.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.52 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 47c | 25.04$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe54c…2c69backed No | 64c | 25$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.95 | 255 | 60.8%155 W · 100 L | +16.2wins | +0.06per pick | 54cpaid | +14%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2688…88c9backed Yes | 55c | 20.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.42 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 62c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.4 | 2,060 | 60%1,235 W · 825 L | +28.9wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb4…c6d7backed No | 56c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 371 | 50.4%187 W · 184 L | +6.3wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 77c | 19.53$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x30fb…7db4backed No | 61c | 18.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 4,117 | 47.6%1,958 W · 2,159 L | -158.0wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa596…9316backed No | 79c | 18.14$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.42 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 74cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf73b…10bfbacked No | 69c | 17$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 283 | 44.5%126 W · 157 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacac…50fbbacked No | 72c | 16.52$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.89 | 283 | 60.4%171 W · 112 L | -8.6wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a3…902dbacked No | 68c | 16.23$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -3.4wins | -0.14per pick | 56cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…db0dbacked No | 80c | 15$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +2.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x863a…a08bbacked No | 77c | 14$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.73 | 25 | 72%18 W · 7 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 69cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 92-93°F on August 18?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 94-95°F on August 18?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 18?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.