MLB · resolved market
Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa97934d52ccd58ff40f1dbe7e5827c301766b2710b9b305f58b2beecd447c6cd
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Baltimore Oriolesof Baltimore Orioles, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,069
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $17,817
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,069 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles | 72c | 1,042$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$288.67 | 338 | 64.2%217 W · 121 L | +23.1wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros | 61c | 919.17$561 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.69 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles | 64c | 919.07$593 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$326.35 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee0b…e9f4backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 900$351 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549 | 47 | 57.4%27 W · 20 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f8e…3082backed Houston Astros | 33c | 592.65$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.57 | 781 | 46.4%362 W · 419 L | +11.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Baltimore Orioles | 67c | 565.44$378 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.02 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 34c | 528.94$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.51 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 505.13$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.13 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 27c | 500$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd52c…6c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 384.62$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.62 | 293 | 31.7%93 W · 200 L | -11.7wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros | 46c | 330.79$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.23 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…3c1ebacked Houston Astros | 62c | 329.99$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.59 | 483 | 54.7%264 W · 219 L | +20.8wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Houston Astros | 38c | 322$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.36 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros | 62c | 291$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.42 | 2,369 | 47.4%1,122 W · 1,247 L | -11.6wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4483…c565backed Baltimore Orioles | 66c | 227.88$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.88 | 257 | 51.8%133 W · 124 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Houston Astros | 26c | 188$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.78 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Houston Astros | 35c | 185.15$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.48 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros | 29c | 139.7$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.45 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 138.26$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.72 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cc0…7faabacked Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 126.18$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.97 | 213 | 47.9%102 W · 111 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d00…7507backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 120.51$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.51 | 96 | 42.7%41 W · 55 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 113.51$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.44 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x695b…36c8backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 100$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +45.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…3652backed Houston Astros | 62c | 62.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.53 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0905…e5c0backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 60$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.2 | 1,661 | 43.5%722 W · 939 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Baltimore Orioles | 39c | 54.68$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.35 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0271…5673backed Houston Astros | 37c | 54.05$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -72%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7307…b257backed Baltimore Orioles | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 81 | 58%47 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 50$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 40c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Baltimore Orioles | 60c | 46$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 45.02$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.91 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Baltimore Orioles | 54c | 39$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.94 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Baltimore Orioles | 38c | 32.61$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.22 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3169…6dccbacked Baltimore Orioles | 48c | 31.25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.25 | 150 | 45.3%68 W · 82 L | -3.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36aa…a683backed Houston Astros | 62c | 17.34$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 443 | 47.9%212 W · 231 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7198…4213backed Houston Astros | 62c | 17$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.54 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Baltimore Orioles | 62c | 16.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.37 | 2,583 | 61.4%1,587 W · 996 L | +70.9wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)this page
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.