MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa093dee788224a183131f49bb443ae022102c885e575b05f814983930d4c9e5d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $192,780
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $192,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $192,780 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa710…23c4backed Under | 55c | 70,000$38,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31,499.98 | 550 | 53.1%292 W · 258 L | +20.7wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x777d…5143backed Over | 45c | 54,584$24,563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24,562.99 | 88 | 56.8%50 W · 38 L | +6.6wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +20%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe246…dedcbacked Over | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 267 | 53.9%144 W · 123 L | +7.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c6e…271bbacked Over | 0c | 24,530$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 60 | 51.7%31 W · 29 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x829a…a748backed Over | 0c | 17,700$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.7 | 187 | 51.9%97 W · 90 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Under | 54c | 17,044$9,196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,848.43 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x842a…7422backed Over | 46c | 15,000$6,900 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,900 | 595 | 49.7%296 W · 299 L | -3.6wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59d7…f69dbacked Over | 0c | 11,145$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.24 | 91 | 47.3%43 W · 48 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99a…1f3ebacked Over | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.7wins | +0.16per pick | 49cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f5…c669backed Over | 45c | 10,000$4,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,500 | 479 | 53.2%255 W · 224 L | +18.0wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x78b0…9f1abacked Over | 45c | 3,500$1,575 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,575 | 390 | 47.4%185 W · 205 L | -11.5wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 44c | 2,803$1,227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,226.7 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xba67…4727backed Under | 55c | 2,500$1,375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,125 | 750 | 49.7%373 W · 377 L | +7.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc174…b757backed Over | 45c | 2,187$984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$984.02 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | 0%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Under | 55c | 2,043$1,117 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$925.76 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd81f…6b75backed Over | 45c | 1,091$491 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$490.93 | 1,010 | 48.1%486 W · 524 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 55c | 898$491 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$406.86 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf01a…cc6abacked Over | 46c | 713.35$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328.14 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 57c | 685.76$391 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.88 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 46c | 626.36$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.6 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Over | 45c | 481.14$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.34 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 34c | 453.64$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.6 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafca…92b4backed Over | 45c | 444.44$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 181 | 54.7%99 W · 82 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x17d7…9e1ebacked Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1,000 | 58.8%588 W · 412 L | +26.0wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0972…9d1ebacked Over | 46c | 434.78$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 24 | 45.8%11 W · 13 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2714…960fbacked Over | 46c | 400$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184 | 859 | 52.6%452 W · 407 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 53c | 350$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$164.5 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0b…62cdbacked Under | 55c | 254.55$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$114.55 | 795 | 43%342 W · 453 L | -3.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Under | 56c | 252.46$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$110.89 | 128 | 50%64 W · 64 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8001…c76fbacked Over | 46c | 251$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.46 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +4.1wins | +0.07per pick | 50cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe624…2928backed Over | 45c | 232.12$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.94 | 496 | 49.8%247 W · 249 L | +11.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4af7…2381backed Over | 46c | 217.39$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.12per pick | 50cpaid | +23%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x255a…3435backed Over | 37c | 217$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.29 | 1,522 | 34.7%528 W · 994 L | +27.1wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09ee…90a4backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 1,569 | 51.1%801 W · 768 L | +15.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bac…0d22backed Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0fd…e1f5backed Under | 55c | 200$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90 | 116 | 55.2%64 W · 52 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7242…ac6fbacked Over | 46c | 168.88$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.68 | 131 | 52.7%69 W · 62 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 16c | 166.52$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.44 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 43c | 148.19$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.58 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Over | 44c | 113.64$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a2d…4f43backed Over | 45c | 100$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b97…6084backed Over | 46c | 99.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46 | 591 | 50.3%297 W · 294 L | +9.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8059…c043backed Over | 45c | 95.93$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 784 | 54.5%427 W · 357 L | +19.5wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Under | 53c | 94$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.26 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1276…0845backed Under | 56c | 89.29$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.29 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 54c | 85.18$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.18 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5bda…17a8backed Under | 57c | 75$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.25 | 1,753 | 50.8%890 W · 863 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3711…7339backed Over | 46c | 66.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.53 | 27 | 48.1%13 W · 14 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa578…6702backed Over | 44c | 65.72$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.91 | 1,053 | 47.3%498 W · 555 L | -14.7wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 35c | 56.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.7 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0448…5a75backed Over | 45c | 55.56$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 304 | 46.4%141 W · 163 L | -25.6wins | -0.08per pick | 55cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Under | 54c | 55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.05 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5df7…3d27backed Over | 45c | 52.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.56 | 51 | 43.1%22 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2baf…8023backed Over | 45c | 50.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.88 | 85 | 50.6%43 W · 42 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5f5…bb11backed Over | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 559 | 53.1%297 W · 262 L | +10.5wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c9d…cb2cbacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +0.8wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +19.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x239d…daebbacked Under | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 303 | 50.8%154 W · 149 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Under | 57c | 49.56$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.55 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4259…77c1backed Under | 50c | 48.07$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.25 | 2,243 | 57.6%1,293 W · 950 L | +37.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Under | 78c | 47.45$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.44 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 45c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Over | 43c | 37.93$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.31 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 57c | 37.06$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.94 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe00b…256fbacked Over | 45c | 36.53$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.44 | 108 | 50.9%55 W · 53 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Under | 56c | 35.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.74 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ac…8de4backed Under | 55c | 32.95$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.83 | 185 | 51.4%95 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1812…0db6backed Over | 46c | 32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.72 | 36 | 58.3%21 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.09per pick | 49cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Over | 38c | 31.73$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.01 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfab…5ce0backed Under | 55c | 27.27$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.27 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Over | 42c | 27.16$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbaff…eaf6backed Under | 56c | 26.79$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 140 | 47.1%66 W · 74 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e3b…e232backed Under | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 2,947 | 51.9%1,529 W · 1,418 L | -34.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d6a…8addbacked Under | 54c | 24.99$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 113 | 46.9%53 W · 60 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3534…a1b3backed Over | 46c | 23.78$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.94 | 70 | 51.4%36 W · 34 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6df…ec06backed Over | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2da…9385backed Under | 56c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.8 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.44per pick | 56cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0ac…4ec7backed Under | 55c | 18.35$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 1,173 | 29%340 W · 833 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.