TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Baltimore Oriolesof Houston Astros, Baltimore Orioles
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$589,752
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$589,595

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $589,752 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 226 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x777d…5143backed Baltimore Orioles56c144,548$80,947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63,601.148856.8%50 W · 38 L+6.6wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+20%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Houston Astros0c109,310$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.3194648.9%463 W · 483 L+4.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a7…fc82backed Houston Astros44c99,999$44,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43,999.5614248.6%69 W · 73 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf46b…c51dbacked Houston Astros0c53,340$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3452449%257 W · 267 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+5.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1117…3532backed Baltimore Orioles56c43,699$24,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,344.5260451%308 W · 296 L-2.3wins0.00per pick51cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x16bb…8492backed Houston Astros44c38,570$16,971 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16,970.8688349.3%435 W · 448 L-4.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6815…9edbbacked Houston Astros0c24,990$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.9944744.1%197 W · 250 L-6.5wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3982…2befbacked Houston Astros0c13,920$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.9241847.6%199 W · 219 L+0.4wins0.00per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa975…42eebacked Houston Astros0c13,340$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3437747.2%178 W · 199 L-10.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Houston Astros42c13,272$5,557 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,556.724,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Baltimore Orioles56c13,070$7,319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,750.771,68150.1%842 W · 839 L-22.7wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc75b…3ea7backed Houston Astros0c11,480$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.481,21250%606 W · 606 L+5.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9703…69c2backed Houston Astros44c10,544$4,639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,639.283,50951%1,789 W · 1,720 L+53.3wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3df…82fabacked Houston Astros38c10,149$3,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,873.8948850.2%245 W · 243 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Houston Astros44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,40012457.3%71 W · 53 L+7.7wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+13.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5f28…707dbacked Houston Astros44c10,000$4,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,399.991656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.12per pick45cpaid+25.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x842a…7422backed Baltimore Orioles56c8,786$4,920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,865.7159549.7%296 W · 299 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Houston Astros44c7,075$3,088 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,088.455,47150.5%2,763 W · 2,708 L+21.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Houston Astros23c5,888$1,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,380.1810544.8%47 W · 58 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-18%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9495…9a27backed Baltimore Orioles72c4,766$3,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,343.782,29348.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L-24.0wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Baltimore Orioles55c4,545$2,499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,045.0377153.8%415 W · 356 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4699…5051backed Houston Astros21c4,543$977 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$976.5617014.1%24 W · 146 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x021c…232fbacked Baltimore Orioles56c4,100$2,296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,80417853.4%95 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58b9…ee8bbacked Houston Astros44c3,500$1,540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,539.9975248.8%367 W · 385 L-1.9wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed Houston Astros44c3,369$1,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,482.4331149.2%153 W · 158 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+4.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Houston Astros25c3,268$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.862,38943.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L-25.4wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros12c2,184$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256.081,87452%975 W · 899 L+51.6wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros25c2,181$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$552.78,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Houston Astros27c2,073$552 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$551.616,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x255a…3435backed Houston Astros10c2,065$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.481,52234.7%528 W · 994 L+27.1wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee0b…e9f4backed Baltimore Orioles56c2,000$1,120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8804757.4%27 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xadfb…c2efbacked Houston Astros44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8802,40748.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L-62.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-4.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed Houston Astros44c2,000$880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88027751.6%143 W · 134 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf0ac…4ec7backed Houston Astros8c2,000$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.571,19429%346 W · 848 L-0.9wins0.00per pick29cpaid-6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb58f…a45cbacked Houston Astros10c1,930$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200180%0 W · 18 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3920…23e7backed Houston Astros44c1,761$775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77525149.8%125 W · 126 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdcad…df78backed Houston Astros28c1,737$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.2110930.3%33 W · 76 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-15.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Baltimore Orioles77c1,706$1,316 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.4512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a47…235bbacked Houston Astros13c1,538$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200429.5%4 W · 38 L-2.9wins-0.07per pick16cpaid-80.1%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5f8d…8b2cbacked Houston Astros18c1,528$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$277.7413818.8%26 W · 112 L-17.2wins-0.12per pick31cpaid-46.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x5ee3…cab9backed Houston Astros13c1,400$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17816232.1%52 W · 110 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick29cpaid+2.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7760…21f0backed Houston Astros45c1,392$626 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$626.42,37547.3%1,123 W · 1,252 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8180…208bbacked Houston Astros44c1,261$555 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55518151.4%93 W · 88 L+5.3wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+8.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ad…bfb7backed Baltimore Orioles78c1,248$973 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$275.381,52059.1%899 W · 621 L+78.6wins+0.05per pick54cpaid-1.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xae51…0d08backed Houston Astros23c1,237$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.5636440.1%146 W · 218 L+9.4wins+0.03per pick38cpaid+6.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Houston Astros44c1,185$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.4757744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf971…0a57backed Houston Astros24c1,180$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.519538.9%37 W · 58 L-4.3wins-0.05per pick43cpaid-17.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfed7…e405backed Baltimore Orioles77c1,171$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$273.2180159.2%474 W · 327 L+7.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-3.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26d6…caccbacked Houston Astros25c1,145$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.951,15342.8%494 W · 659 L-37.8wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-25.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5e4a…eee7backed Houston Astros44c1,136$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9930844.2%136 W · 172 L-10.4wins-0.03per pick48cpaid-7.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Houston Astros44c1,126$496 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.533852.7%178 W · 160 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+4.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Baltimore Orioles73c1,111$810 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$300.8711,51952.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L+213.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22da…2866backed Baltimore Orioles56c1,088$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$478.721,79750.4%906 W · 891 L-1.6wins0.00per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros10c1,074$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.7510,97951.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L+139.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f3…ac83backed Houston Astros29c1,034$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad7f…d0d4backed Baltimore Orioles75c1,010$752 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.553246.9%15 W · 17 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-27.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x695d…60d5backed Baltimore Orioles52c1,010$525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$484.83167.7%21 W · 10 L+5.6wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+33.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xd81f…6b75backed Houston Astros44c1,001$441 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.611,01048.1%486 W · 524 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04b9…79e0backed Houston Astros44c1,000$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44055052.4%288 W · 262 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8753…85adbacked Baltimore Orioles56c940$526 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$413.61,92253.4%1,027 W · 895 L+28.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Houston Astros14c900$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13094734.4%326 W · 621 L-0.7wins0.00per pick35cpaid-4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x986c…3180backed Houston Astros44c881.45$388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$387.8452347.2%247 W · 276 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick47cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Baltimore Orioles79c822.3$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.85,14954.7%2,815 W · 2,334 L+231.2wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Baltimore Orioles55c799.95$443 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.316,99950.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L+2.7wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x782b…ff64backed Houston Astros22c750$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16550860.2%306 W · 202 L+29.7wins+0.06per pick54cpaid+6.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf01a…cc6abacked Baltimore Orioles57c712.7$406 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$306.461050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x424e…263bbacked Houston Astros44c653.57$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$287.571,76951.6%912 W · 857 L+16.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Baltimore Orioles56c625$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2751,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x161a…4103backed Baltimore Orioles74c617.31$458 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.974,08757.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L+66.3wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c55…97d4backed Baltimore Orioles56c594.64$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.6413655.1%75 W · 61 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8bac…0d22backed Baltimore Orioles57c592.98$338 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.98955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd51b…9606backed Houston Astros44c570$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$250.822548.4%109 W · 116 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x62c0…db73backed Baltimore Orioles75c517.12$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.353256.3%18 W · 14 L-2.1wins-0.06per pick63cpaid-12.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x775d…6bebbacked Houston Astros18c480$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.9128952.6%152 W · 137 L+6.8wins+0.02per pick50cpaid-5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ddc…e874backed Houston Astros22c472.75$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.0319442.3%82 W · 112 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-20.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8345…5cadbacked Houston Astros44c444$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.366152.5%32 W · 29 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad88…3c1ebacked Houston Astros45c438.66$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.448354.7%264 W · 219 L+20.8wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Baltimore Orioles57c400$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17285952.6%452 W · 407 L+7.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x39eb…0e4cbacked Houston Astros23c400$92 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.957350.7%37 W · 36 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6804…29e2backed Baltimore Orioles76c391.45$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.361,37950.6%698 W · 681 L-2.4wins0.00per pick51cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2dc0…e57dbacked Houston Astros10c361.61$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3526315.6%41 W · 222 L-11.9wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-49.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf6c4…df5fbacked Baltimore Orioles56c350$196 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15439850.3%200 W · 198 L+0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xddb6…b9b3backed Houston Astros16c348$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.0632751.7%169 W · 158 L+4.1wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b15…fa73backed Baltimore Orioles70c343.53$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.3433864.2%217 W · 121 L+23.1wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+11.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe624…2928backed Baltimore Orioles55c323.18$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.4349649.8%247 W · 249 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa1ab…3ebdbacked Houston Astros16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Houston Astros36c300$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10922848.2%110 W · 118 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d9a…05e6backed Houston Astros23c283.83$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.8939640.9%162 W · 234 L-25.4wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-31.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x3368…4f90backed Houston Astros45c251.11$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1134936.7%18 W · 31 L-5.0wins-0.10per pick47cpaid-25.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7d7f…86d2backed Houston Astros23c246.35$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.1750337.2%187 W · 316 L-42.3wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-28.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x009b…e769backed Baltimore Orioles56c246$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.2412262.3%76 W · 46 L+8.4wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+14.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9087…9532backed Houston Astros4c232$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102646.2%12 W · 14 L+1.7wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+31.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc278…a116backed Houston Astros43c227.29$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.7884840.2%341 W · 507 L-3.2wins0.00per pick41cpaid-4.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Houston Astros44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10066645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe649…4e37backed Houston Astros44c227.27$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10056946.9%267 W · 302 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59b6…307fbacked Houston Astros45c222.22$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10081657.1%466 W · 350 L-2.4wins0.00per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5647…7cbebacked Houston Astros45c217.78$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick42cpaid-19%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Houston Astros22c203.28$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.1733515.5%52 W · 283 L-12.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-32.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Houston Astros45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8992…ed1fbacked Houston Astros45c200$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$901435.7%5 W · 9 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick46cpaid-17.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.