MLB · resolved market
Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdbc8d1f92a73404976d8d900a3147f18d84f5cf58522f801a343a36cf1bcfdd5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,299
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $11,177
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,299 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 53 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Over | 56c | 3,732$2,093 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,093.34 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Under | 44c | 1,998$880 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,118.91 | 5,401 | 50.5%2,726 W · 2,675 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f08…5afbbacked Under | 42c | 1,730$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,003.38 | 143 | 40.6%58 W · 85 L | -6.6wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x28e8…6080backed Under | 42c | 879.35$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$510.02 | 473 | 50.7%240 W · 233 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xadfb…c2efbacked Under | 45c | 741.63$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.29 | 2,407 | 48.5%1,167 W · 1,240 L | -62.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58b9…ee8bbacked Under | 42c | 611.51$257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$354.67 | 752 | 48.8%367 W · 385 L | -1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Under | 59c | 439.17$258 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.4 | 6,116 | 55.3%3,385 W · 2,731 L | +344.6wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Under | 49c | 410.68$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$209.97 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Over | 61c | 350.65$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$212.57 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe0d2…ad14backed Over | 58c | 330$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.4 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x424e…263bbacked Under | 45c | 320$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176 | 1,769 | 51.6%912 W · 857 L | +16.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Under | 41c | 280.43$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.17 | 95 | 38.9%37 W · 58 L | -4.3wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…9a27backed Over | 53c | 253.01$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.1 | 2,293 | 48.1%1,103 W · 1,190 L | -24.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…a9e7backed Over | 27c | 239.97$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.06 | 2,389 | 43.4%1,037 W · 1,352 L | -25.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Over | 40c | 198$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.2 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8508…c22fbacked Over | 58c | 189.66$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 1,000 | 52.4%524 W · 476 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2d14…ff3ebacked Over | 55c | 183.29$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 45.3%58 W · 70 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Over | 57c | 178$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.88 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x068c…582ebacked Over | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 384 | 55.2%212 W · 172 L | +9.9wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Under | 57c | 158.97$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.55 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Over | 40c | 149.38$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.83 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Over | 42c | 105.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.99 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x292b…697dbacked Over | 55c | 90.91$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a22…3652backed Over | 58c | 86.21$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf593…9553backed Under | 44c | 77.97$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 2,945 | 47.6%1,401 W · 1,544 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8890…cefbbacked Over | 57c | 68.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.23 | 509 | 62.9%320 W · 189 L | +8.3wins | +0.02per pick | 61cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8a3d…316cbacked Under | 46c | 66$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.64 | 722 | 47.6%344 W · 378 L | -12.4wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca2d…39edbacked Under | 44c | 63.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.7 | 232 | 48.7%113 W · 119 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Under | 60c | 62.05$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.83 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2f26…0d8fbacked Under | 38c | 61.13$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.9 | 1,843 | 43.6%804 W · 1,039 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7fee…3d67backed Over | 54c | 55.28$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.85 | 59 | 47.5%28 W · 31 L | +1.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0954…012abacked Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1,197 | 53.9%645 W · 552 L | +42.4wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6495…6cd7backed Over | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 68 | 55.9%38 W · 30 L | +5.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x96c1…2c59backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 1,498 | 45.3%678 W · 820 L | -8.7wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1101…5de1backed Over | 42c | 48.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15ee…512dbacked Under | 43c | 47$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 213 | 53.5%114 W · 99 L | +4.7wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xddb6…b9b3backed Over | 53c | 42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.34 | 327 | 51.7%169 W · 158 L | +4.1wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1a…26c0backed Under | 62c | 40.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.48 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Under | 38c | 39.66$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.59 | 1,723 | 50.3%867 W · 856 L | +55.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe90e…107abacked Under | 41c | 39.39$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.24 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Over | 40c | 38.15$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.3 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5628…abbcbacked Over | 49c | 37.96$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.66 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | -15.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca20…7b68backed Under | 57c | 37.55$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.97 | 371 | 43.9%163 W · 208 L | -21.4wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc6…b20dbacked Over | 57c | 35.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 619 | 48.6%301 W · 318 L | +5.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe33d…9512backed Over | 54c | 31.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 172 | 44.2%76 W · 96 L | -7.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 41c | 27.68$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.35 | 1,057 | 50.2%531 W · 526 L | +23.4wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c8…d506backed Over | 57c | 26.32$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12b4…a662backed Under | 66c | 26.05$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.74 | 1,133 | 57.2%648 W · 485 L | +35.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0570…5200backed Under | 65c | 20.83$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.27 | 91 | 52.7%48 W · 43 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9555…889abacked Over | 58c | 20.28$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 1,001 | 57.3%574 W · 427 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Under | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.45 | 4,035 | 57.7%2,330 W · 1,705 L | +72.2wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2528…b77dbacked Under | 60c | 19$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 1,630 | 55.2%899 W · 731 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked Over | 54c | 18.69$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.09 | 143 | 53.1%76 W · 67 L | -4.7wins | -0.03per pick | 56cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 8.5this page
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesBaltimore Orioles won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 6.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5Under won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-1.5)Baltimore Orioles won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-2.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Baltimore Orioles (-3.5)Houston Astros won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Baltimore OriolesYes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.