TailMyPicks
Market

MLB · resolved market

Pirates vs. Reds

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Piratesof Pirates, Reds
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$288,623
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$296,234

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $288,623 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 469 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa6a8…5009backed Reds41c30,348$12,405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,405.392,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Reds45c28,057$12,544 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,543.741,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5f2…0234backed Reds52c25,000$13,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,999.9826949.4%133 W · 136 L+1.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Pirates48c22,831$10,959 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,872.344456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2f1f…f9c9backed Reds53c7,653$4,056 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,055.91450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-1.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Pirates53c7,203$3,805 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,397.2739041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2ea8…1fbfbacked Reds31c7,157$2,226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,226.427341.1%30 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-26.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Pirates47c7,000$3,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,709.9434245%154 W · 188 L-1.4wins0.00per pick45cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb786…b18dbacked Reds40c5,867$2,324 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,323.61,59150.3%801 W · 790 L+68.9wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+1.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Reds48c5,797$2,783 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,782.5235854.5%195 W · 163 L+7.3wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Pirates49c5,149$2,534 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,615.5569249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Pirates46c4,838$2,221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,617.2573149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5d57…d7ffbacked Pirates48c4,708$2,260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,448.165850%29 W · 29 L+2.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+7.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Reds53c4,437$2,337 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,337.4463152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Pirates67c3,724$2,485 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,238.8738751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x438f…28fabacked Pirates47c3,652$1,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,935.545756.1%32 W · 25 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick55cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb40e…20e2backed Reds54c3,652$1,972 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9721250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+3.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6ab4…bfdbbacked Pirates58c3,448$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,448.362630.8%8 W · 18 L+0.6wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-18.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Pirates41c3,341$1,386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,955.2154941%225 W · 324 L-15.1wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-22.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfefb…4b5dbacked Pirates43c3,203$1,391 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,812.5246239.6%183 W · 279 L-17.5wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-25.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5383…cb45backed Reds51c2,991$1,539 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,538.926048.3%29 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd267…9dc6backed Pirates46c2,944$1,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,589.7638949.1%191 W · 198 L+12.4wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+5.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pirates44c2,733$1,191 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,542.061,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2509…e4dbbacked Pirates60c2,350$1,402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$948.0725551%130 W · 125 L-10.1wins-0.04per pick55cpaid-9.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdd8e…f023backed Pirates70c2,129$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$629.445959.3%35 W · 24 L+2.4wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x075f…833cbacked Pirates47c2,015$947 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,067.931233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-32.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Reds53c2,000$1,065 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,064.622142.1%93 W · 128 L-16.1wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x64b5…7543backed Pirates46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,08071751%366 W · 351 L+9.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c9d…d327backed Pirates45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,10032042.8%137 W · 183 L-23.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-13.9%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Reds42c1,944$813 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$812.951,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb033…bedbbacked Reds70c1,869$1,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,308.4813359.4%79 W · 54 L-2.8wins-0.02per pick62cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Reds33c1,460$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.188,19246.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L+38.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xdf2e…ddecbacked Reds52c1,405$730 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$730.431,53050.5%772 W · 758 L+20.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Pirates43c1,403$599 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$803.7278445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc8a4…9e63backed Reds69c1,304$900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9002958.6%17 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.11per pick47cpaid+27.4%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xcec6…47c1backed Reds46c1,304$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6006440.6%26 W · 38 L-10.5wins-0.16per pick57cpaid-30.5%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xdda3…d55fbacked Pirates78c1,300$1,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28510636.8%39 W · 67 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-11.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x781c…db68backed Pirates48c1,256$604 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.8596133.9%326 W · 635 L-38.9wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-31.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Reds43c1,198$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$520.154,18750.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L+94.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Reds23c1,139$267 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.2512,32846.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L-66.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xafba…e61bbacked Pirates46c1,119$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$604.1213246.2%61 W · 71 L-8.1wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-13.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Pirates47c1,100$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5823,30346.3%1,528 W · 1,775 L+22.6wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf898…e720backed Pirates35c1,054$373 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$680.16,30548.2%3,042 W · 3,263 L+181.6wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Reds51c1,030$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.324436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Pirates48c999.99$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$519.9983248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6ef2…c877backed Reds52c960$499 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Reds52c957.41$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50057744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ba9…bfaebacked Reds53c943.4$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50023060%138 W · 92 L-1.1wins0.00per pick60cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285f…2c03backed Pirates64c935.12$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$335.121361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.4wins+0.11per pick51cpaid+10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Reds55c850.86$470 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$469.779146.2%42 W · 49 L-11.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x9dd9…08bdbacked Pirates54c843.99$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$388.3747745.7%218 W · 259 L+7.6wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-17.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pirates71c807.88$572 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$235.626,12355.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L+346.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+8.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Reds51c796.62$409 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$409.2451334.5%177 W · 336 L-31.2wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-19.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xb3ad…9d38backed Reds52c769.22$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.9917045.3%77 W · 93 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Reds15c650$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1002931%9 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf92…7e3fbacked Reds53c566.04$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.21per pick54cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7f65…d7aebacked Reds16c552.78$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.5195930%288 W · 671 L-24.4wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-15.7%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Pirates46c544.26$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.91,08646.2%502 W · 584 L-0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bbc…f458backed Reds43c539.74$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.0620747.8%99 W · 108 L-11.6wins-0.06per pick53cpaid-15.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa5c…be69backed Reds58c529.32$305 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30514047.9%67 W · 73 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+3.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3d64…01fabacked Pirates46c525.1$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.5551347%241 W · 272 L+32.0wins+0.06per pick41cpaid+14.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbdb3…2d43backed Reds58c517.24$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3003040%12 W · 18 L-2.8wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-13.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa6e5…5677backed Pirates48c500$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2601100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Pirates47c500$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2651,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33bc…37dcbacked Pirates46c499.99$230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27021538.6%83 W · 132 L-8.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-15.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2714…1666backed Reds55c486.84$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Reds21c472.57$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x363d…fe75backed Reds54c462.96$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25021242.5%90 W · 122 L-13.7wins-0.06per pick49cpaid-7.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x089d…c7c9backed Reds25c443.99$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.8510713.1%14 W · 93 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Reds17c435.3$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.1810527.6%29 W · 76 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd52d…412dbacked Pirates60c421.85$254 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$167.916558.5%38 W · 27 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0adb…7693backed Reds5c400$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20857.1%6 W · 79 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick10cpaid-80.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6692…1125backed Reds53c400$212 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21213242.4%56 W · 76 L-14.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-22%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Reds52c384$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.681,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe53f…62d7backed Reds16c355.44$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.8721146.4%98 W · 113 L+13.0wins+0.06per pick40cpaid+15.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x6282…e8f2backed Reds22c355$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.537427%20 W · 54 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x151f…807dbacked Pirates45c326.08$146 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.441250%6 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-3.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5961…f0d5backed Pirates49c323$158 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8992…b25dbacked Pirates49c315$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$160.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc57b…baa0backed Pirates49c310$152 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$158.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x384a…39c0backed Reds48c305.99$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.286163.9%39 W · 22 L+5.0wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+19.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7c7d…423fbacked Reds23c303.95$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6911141.4%46 W · 65 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+3.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d01…0ab1backed Pirates47c300$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15966751.9%346 W · 321 L+30.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5693…71fdbacked Pirates57c287.26$164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.526544.6%29 W · 36 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-9.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0396…b3babacked Pirates48c280$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.62100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+98.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee1d…7a12backed Reds54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503141.9%13 W · 18 L-2.4wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-22.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xc9d1…2b9ebacked Pirates38c263.16$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.1611446.5%53 W · 61 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-8.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5e5b…590dbacked Reds54c250$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13566645.5%303 W · 363 L-4.8wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe066…794abacked Pirates48c248.92$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+31.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Reds17c235.95$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Pirates38c230.99$87 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.8631145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x897e…6040backed Pirates48c230$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.6785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick59cpaid+56.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0b28…15d7backed Pirates79c226.76$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.675100%5 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+52.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd39f…d494backed Pirates49c226.53$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.532025%5 W · 15 L-4.0wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Pirates60c224.03$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.570841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41e3…1962backed Reds25c222.07$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5557545.9%264 W · 311 L+0.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4eff…8490backed Reds50c221.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.315060%30 W · 20 L+3.8wins+0.08per pick52cpaid+19.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4487…08c6backed Reds61c217.77$133 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$132.849551.6%49 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb853…0d33backed Pirates47c212.77$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7763052.7%332 W · 298 L+13.9wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xefaf…26a1backed Pirates52c209.4$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.5123938.5%92 W · 147 L-9.6wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.