Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa9c914a31f284aff3fdf493fe669a1b6a9350fdf2b5a67fa7ecfd48f811cb756
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,255
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,255 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 69 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 2c | 20,237$409 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$409.32 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 65c | 487.01$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.84 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 76c | 385$291 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.84 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6973…b296backed Yes | 34c | 242.92$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.83 | 137 | 28.5%39 W · 98 L | +10.4wins | +0.08per pick | 21cpaid | +52.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked Yes | 18c | 226.69$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8882…03fbbacked Yes | 39c | 202.73$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.23 | 517 | 33.3%172 W · 345 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed Yes | 20c | 195.07$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 21c | 192.03$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.71 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 26c | 191$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked Yes | 49c | 164.46$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.27 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 63c | 151.9$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.95 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 46c | 144.69$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.25 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3507…71d7backed No | 76c | 130.99$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.99 | 333 | 73%243 W · 90 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 73cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xedba…002dbacked No | 65c | 112.72$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.95 | 96 | 79.2%76 W · 20 L | +5.4wins | +0.06per pick | 74cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8023…cfd4backed Yes | 27c | 104.97$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.59 | 73 | 38.4%28 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +63.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…c876backed Yes | 42c | 92.11$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.67 | 38 | 34.2%13 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 61c | 86.45$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.96 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 85.98$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.06 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 37c | 85.24$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.75 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 23c | 79.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.51 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf352…a070backed Yes | 19c | 78.12$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.71 | 35 | 25.7%9 W · 26 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 69c | 73.52$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.79 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5e5d…9491backed No | 70c | 71.42$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.43 | 308 | 59.1%182 W · 126 L | -10.3wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb25e…a93bbacked Yes | 39c | 69$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 234 | 36.3%85 W · 149 L | +5.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 42c | 66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.52 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 38c | 64.82$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.54 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x932b…a773backed No | 64c | 64.67$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.55 | 228 | 53.1%121 W · 107 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 36c | 62.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.61 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 40c | 62.59$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed Yes | 31c | 58.6$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…7b02backed No | 61c | 57.93$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.43 | 2,068 | 55.9%1,156 W · 912 L | +44.2wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 35c | 56.41$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.81 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0484…4830backed No | 58c | 54.15$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.92 | 5,186 | 47.2%2,447 W · 2,739 L | +66.7wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 39c | 53.13$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.72 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 62c | 52$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.76 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 44c | 50.06$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.01 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 31c | 45.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 55c | 42.97$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.24 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 78c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1aa…7429backed Yes | 29c | 39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.31 | 94 | 26.6%25 W · 69 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x361c…99d4backed No | 64c | 38.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.92 | 119 | 65.5%78 W · 41 L | -5.9wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 38.38$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.31 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…e151backed No | 79c | 38.02$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.02 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6c2a…b7b5backed Yes | 31c | 37.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 50cpaid | +30%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…917cbacked Yes | 40c | 37$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 155 | 58.7%91 W · 64 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed Yes | 38c | 36.88$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x69f0…fb27backed Yes | 31c | 34.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 2,118 | 58.2%1,233 W · 885 L | +78.8wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 32c | 33.71$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 78c | 32.99$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.26 | 284 | 56%159 W · 125 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 65c | 30.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb00c…231abacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98e9…bf91backed Yes | 34c | 30$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 58c | 27.77$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.66 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 71c | 27.06$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.92 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9cfd…dfe7backed No | 64c | 26.76$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.63 | 999 | 61.8%617 W · 382 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b18…2639backed Yes | 46c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.96 | 438 | 42%184 W · 254 L | -14.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…e7a0backed Yes | 41c | 25.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.24 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x41fa…7cc4backed No | 62c | 24.38$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.25 | 792 | 55.2%437 W · 355 L | +9.3wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7082…3a10backed Yes | 46c | 24$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 35 | 28.6%10 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bbb…d419backed No | 65c | 24$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 19 | 78.9%15 W · 4 L | +1.6wins | +0.08per pick | 71cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1d…9e61backed No | 74c | 21.21$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 2,870 | 64.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L | -32.8wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…47aabacked Yes | 49c | 20.52$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 164 | 32.9%54 W · 110 L | +12.7wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbc…bd73backed No | 64c | 20.02$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.21 | 918 | 61.5%565 W · 353 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4526…2d4bbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 91 | 59.3%54 W · 37 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 78c | 17$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.74 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 65c | 15.71$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.51 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.