Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x98a7b667b4f40b1584bb63a599bf49c145960e41417afb33a5423dc5665995b1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,253
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,851
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,253 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 79 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x938d…8674backed Yes | 46c | 1,086$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$588.67 | 467 | 33.4%156 W · 311 L | +21.4wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0249…5b4bbacked No | 67c | 743.96$498 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$498.45 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x01eb…b04abacked Yes | 52c | 620.75$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.46 | 93 | 41.9%39 W · 54 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 22c | 604.91$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.27 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda33…007ebacked Yes | 76c | 568.64$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$138.19 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 470$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.63 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd53b…fc94backed Yes | 68c | 456.03$310 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$146.16 | 25 | 60%15 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed Yes | 36c | 364.99$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.11 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 26c | 264.37$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$196.87 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf7f4…1e34backed No | 30c | 228.16$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.41 | 1,312 | 45%590 W · 722 L | +33.6wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed No | 72c | 186.05$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.41 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd1b…da1ebacked Yes | 26c | 159.22$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$117.23 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | -7.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 71c | 153.78$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.33 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 44c | 151.9$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.27 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd487…5f32backed No | 44c | 134.9$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 66 | 47%31 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…eb02backed Yes | 49c | 134$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.18 | 348 | 46.6%162 W · 186 L | +14.6wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef0…62e0backed No | 41c | 121$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 190 | 52.1%99 W · 91 L | -5.5wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 33c | 112.98$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.13 | 617 | 52.8%326 W · 291 L | -1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x10e0…92e4backed Yes | 41c | 103.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.16 | 277 | 44%122 W · 155 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ae4…fc82backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 2,530 | 50.4%1,275 W · 1,255 L | -48.9wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 53c | 95.16$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.86 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2be…ff33backed Yes | 47c | 88.56$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.71 | 1,203 | 48.9%588 W · 615 L | -24.7wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1abc…45e7backed Yes | 69c | 86.77$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.21 | 2,099 | 58.3%1,224 W · 875 L | +83.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 55c | 85$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.5 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 21c | 84.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.32 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 66c | 83.33$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 5,897 | 49.4%2,913 W · 2,984 L | -103.3wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 39c | 81.5$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.97 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1c73…c731backed No | 43c | 81.21$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.6wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9acf…0cc2backed Yes | 51c | 80$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.2 | 229 | 45.4%104 W · 125 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…e0dbbacked No | 68c | 74.62$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.74 | 104 | 45.2%47 W · 57 L | +2.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cd0…c747backed No | 68c | 73.03$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.35 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 59c | 66.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.52 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed Yes | 53c | 65.46$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.46 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 37c | 62.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.05 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x937d…ec25backed Yes | 51c | 62.5$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.62 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 41c | 61.32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed Yes | 33c | 60.6$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.6 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 56c | 60.29$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.51 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc0…cc78backed No | 23c | 56.5$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 67c | 55$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 2,075 | 58.9%1,223 W · 852 L | +102.1wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f88…da69backed Yes | 73c | 54.58$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 179 | 49.2%88 W · 91 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b8b…2512backed Yes | 69c | 53.18$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 2,093 | 57.1%1,196 W · 897 L | +71.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87d8…ccf3backed Yes | 51c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -4.0wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 35c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.5 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f1d…8de2backed No | 38c | 47.39$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.22 | 1,543 | 60.5%934 W · 609 L | -19.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed Yes | 32c | 47.2$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.2 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed No | 73c | 47.02$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.22 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7df0…0dfebacked No | 71c | 44.02$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.42 | 3,642 | 65.9%2,400 W · 1,242 L | +33.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f5…923abacked Yes | 44c | 43.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 37 | 40.5%15 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbe…a4dfbacked Yes | 49c | 43.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.23 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 56cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f19…d595backed No | 37c | 42.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 62cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 886 | 50.2%445 W · 441 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed Yes | 66c | 37.74$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.88 | 841 | 24%202 W · 639 L | -35.9wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeaef…d242backed Yes | 66c | 34.69$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.89 | 32 | 56.3%18 W · 14 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97bd…f2adbacked No | 58c | 32.71$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.97 | 45 | 68.9%31 W · 14 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 66cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 55c | 31.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.98 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed No | 57c | 30.95$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4174…18fabacked No | 34c | 30.24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.21 | 1,079 | 61.2%660 W · 419 L | -5.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a56…be30backed No | 67c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 464 | 52.2%242 W · 222 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3d01…85c3backed No | 41c | 29.44$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…462ebacked No | 53c | 28.3$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 87.5%7 W · 1 L | +2.9wins | +0.36per pick | 51cpaid | +86.9%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcd91…32b8backed No | 51c | 27.77$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.16 | 1,428 | 52.1%744 W · 684 L | -21.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 46c | 27$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x62a8…2132backed No | 72c | 27$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.44 | 714 | 64.3%459 W · 255 L | -37.4wins | -0.05per pick | 70cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x948a…e7a0backed Yes | 42c | 24.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.49 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.18per pick | 43cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4676…b720backed No | 47c | 24.62$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 981 | 60.6%594 W · 387 L | +9.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d46…f816backed Yes | 51c | 24.08$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.79 | 58 | 51.7%30 W · 28 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb1a…1e6dbacked No | 67c | 24$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.08 | 1,359 | 30.2%411 W · 948 L | -92.9wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x57c5…76c2backed No | 70c | 22.85$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.99 | 68 | 52.9%36 W · 32 L | -7.5wins | -0.11per pick | 64cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcf16…3a05backed No | 54c | 21.76$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.75 | 106 | 67%71 W · 35 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 49c | 21.44$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.46 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9da…aa1cbacked No | 75c | 21.2$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.9 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 69cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 53c | 20.11$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.58 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf891…89aebacked Yes | 50c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8f9…e151backed Yes | 77c | 17.71$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.16 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7603…2276backed No | 70c | 17.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.17 | 146 | 74.7%109 W · 37 L | +9.5wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed Yes | 69c | 16.89$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.24 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf651…86b1backed Yes | 65c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 61 | 57.4%35 W · 26 L | -3.4wins | -0.06per pick | 63cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 30°C or higher on June 4?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 27°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 28°C on June 4?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 29°C on June 4?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.