Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa06e63fddd626bc43ebb197d519bc3199710710860b5c3eb9f0066f767c89b5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $6,545
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $6,537
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $6,545 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6bee…7e78backed Yes | 7c | 355.46$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.76 | 1,076 | 23.5%253 W · 823 L | +69.1wins | +0.06per pick | 17cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…c1a5backed No | 60c | 297$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.8 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 10c | 262.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.58 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb90b…ca12backed Yes | 66c | 256.83$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.29 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 39c | 199.98$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.2 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 40c | 187.5$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 15c | 151.07$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.94 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked Yes | 25c | 131.35$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.99 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x081e…1e4ebacked Yes | 48c | 129.41$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.23 | 321 | 47.4%152 W · 169 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb49f…1821backed Yes | 41c | 121.54$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1,061 | 53.2%564 W · 497 L | +33.5wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68db…44f0backed No | 58c | 119.7$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.62 | 191 | 48.2%92 W · 99 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 56c | 118.1$66 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.63 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x75cc…6b15backed Yes | 61c | 117.42$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.84 | 1,181 | 49.4%583 W · 598 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed Yes | 36c | 106.97$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.03 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b72…dc2ebacked Yes | 33c | 99.39$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.03 | 284 | 41.5%118 W · 166 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0ecc…c745backed No | 48c | 96.87$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.38 | 179 | 47.5%85 W · 94 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 61c | 91$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.59 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 44c | 90.72$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked Yes | 23c | 87.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.47 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 40c | 85.5$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 79.99$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.8 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 44c | 77.7$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.29 | 3,474 | 33.9%1,177 W · 2,297 L | -175.6wins | -0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c3…20e0backed No | 59c | 65$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.65 | 637 | 57.6%367 W · 270 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 77c | 60$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.96 | 3,755 | 61.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L | -36.5wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09c2…8210backed Yes | 51c | 57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.81 | 541 | 54%292 W · 249 L | +13.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 58c | 55$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.9 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 36c | 53.35$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 35c | 51.34$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.09 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfb85…f401backed Yes | 44c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 311 | 24.1%75 W · 236 L | -8.2wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 41c | 50$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 50c | 50$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 38c | 49.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 34c | 49.83$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 39c | 49.62$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.35 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…c430backed No | 57c | 48$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.84 | 34 | 41.2%14 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2429…02d9backed No | 44c | 46.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.5 | 177 | 47.5%84 W · 93 L | +4.6wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked Yes | 54c | 45$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 52c | 45$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.59 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 37c | 39.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 59c | 38.98$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.98 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 41c | 36.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 59c | 32.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.39 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 62c | 32.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 64c | 31.81$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.35 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 35c | 30$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.5 | 1,586 | 61.9%982 W · 604 L | +20.2wins | +0.01per pick | 61cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 35c | 29.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.49 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 66c | 25.39$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.52 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x978d…f975backed Yes | 47c | 25.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.23per pick | 68cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d10…a713backed Yes | 44c | 25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 143 | 32.2%46 W · 97 L | +14.7wins | +0.10per pick | 22cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x5278…5306backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 149 | 41.6%62 W · 87 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…f395backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 25$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 50c | 24.12$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.12 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a0c…a853backed No | 64c | 23.43$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.43 | 2,249 | 34.2%769 W · 1,480 L | +11.6wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3e4…f053backed No | 47c | 22.8$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.98 | 180 | 46.1%83 W · 97 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeb68…e362backed No | 73c | 19$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.06 | 2,118 | 59.1%1,251 W · 867 L | +107.9wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 68c | 16.5$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.28 | 1,525 | 52.6%802 W · 723 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.