Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x935ad6fd604b49f94103ddeea35e6e5ff65b61e6e379106f2512daccc475aa81
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $14,560
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $14,560 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 77 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x78ed…ab3abacked Yes | 45c | 667.66$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.66 | 402 | 26.9%108 W · 294 L | -5.5wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 24c | 583.22$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.18 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 39c | 433.84$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.94 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7615…308abacked No | 5c | 376.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 184 | 41.3%76 W · 108 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -23%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafb8…7451backed Yes | 64c | 311.29$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 93 | 35.5%33 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 35c | 248.89$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.66 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf6be…f6a3backed Yes | 48c | 202.02$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.06 | 299 | 41.1%123 W · 176 L | +20.8wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8370…e1efbacked Yes | 36c | 199.99$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.99 | 265 | 40.8%108 W · 157 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 38cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2acf…f9bbbacked Yes | 35c | 190.39$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.73 | 1,227 | 33.9%416 W · 811 L | +45.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed No | 15c | 187.22$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 14c | 173.11$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.56 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb97f…8648backed No | 67c | 149.91$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -1.9wins | -0.21per pick | 65cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b40…ced4backed No | 38c | 142.18$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.52 | 958 | 52.5%503 W · 455 L | +103.2wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed No | 64c | 139.89$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.23 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed No | 40c | 134.77$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x38e2…2909backed No | 61c | 120.03$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.31 | 3,479 | 53%1,845 W · 1,634 L | +72.1wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdca4…e93dbacked Yes | 50c | 120$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.69 | 2,501 | 45.5%1,138 W · 1,363 L | +26.8wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed No | 64c | 109.68$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x879d…b501backed Yes | 54c | 108.34$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.55 | 605 | 19.7%119 W · 486 L | -5.8wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 36c | 102.61$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.54 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b08…ab3ebacked Yes | 39c | 100.86$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.97 | 116 | 50%58 W · 58 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 60c | 94$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x784a…06c3backed Yes | 54c | 92.53$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.53 | 340 | 50.6%172 W · 168 L | -10.0wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 60c | 91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.77 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 90.88$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.91 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 46c | 89.17$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.67 | 4,547 | 58.4%2,655 W · 1,892 L | -107.5wins | -0.02per pick | 61cpaid | -8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82e7…f552backed No | 64c | 81.8$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.33 | 354 | 41%145 W · 209 L | -19.3wins | -0.05per pick | 46cpaid | -22.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0a5…0a36backed No | 59c | 75.25$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.51 | 2,086 | 51.8%1,080 W · 1,006 L | -45.0wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf73f…ee53backed Yes | 31c | 74.86$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.83 | 2,950 | 33.6%992 W · 1,958 L | +9.9wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd717…3b85backed No | 27c | 68$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 2,050 | 57.4%1,177 W · 873 L | +72.2wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…33c9backed No | 68c | 65$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.21 | 896 | 61.7%553 W · 343 L | +15.2wins | +0.02per pick | 60cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e6f…8cfcbacked Yes | 31c | 64.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.59 | 197 | 34%67 W · 130 L | +2.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 41c | 60$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.4 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x515c…7587backed No | 58c | 56.12$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.66 | 196 | 48%94 W · 102 L | -11.8wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 60c | 52.08$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.25 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ae…f36bbacked No | 60c | 50$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 227 | 46.7%106 W · 121 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc71b…e265backed No | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 481 | 49.5%238 W · 243 L | -26.0wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xda91…d760backed Yes | 42c | 50$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 1,010 | 40.3%407 W · 603 L | +16.9wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5201…34c3backed Yes | 37c | 50$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.5 | 63 | 49.2%31 W · 32 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36ff…f2a6backed Yes | 37c | 48.99$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.07 | 621 | 37.7%234 W · 387 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8971…809dbacked No | 65c | 48$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.2 | 1,959 | 46%901 W · 1,058 L | -51.3wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x96e6…fecebacked Yes | 54c | 46.57$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.57 | 261 | 42.1%110 W · 151 L | +15.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…a959backed No | 60c | 43.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.83 | 8,952 | 26.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L | +120.3wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d8…b90dbacked No | 27c | 41.46$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.39 | 834 | 59.8%499 W · 335 L | +27.5wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 40c | 40.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c47…79f8backed Yes | 34c | 39.95$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.33 | 643 | 33.4%215 W · 428 L | +14.3wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1da4…e65cbacked Yes | 49c | 38.46$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.66 | 130 | 50.8%66 W · 64 L | +6.3wins | +0.05per pick | 46cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe59d…b97bbacked Yes | 39c | 37.5$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.87 | 524 | 46.2%242 W · 282 L | +2.9wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes | 76c | 32.61$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0221…c1a5backed No | 56c | 32.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.07 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -1.5wins | -0.14per pick | 68cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb838…f5d1backed Yes | 50c | 31.83$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.83 | 19 | 73.7%14 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 65cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 65c | 31.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.56 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e41…5e0cbacked Yes | 37c | 31.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.85 | 1,061 | 47.9%508 W · 553 L | +32.9wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1798…1ce9backed No | 64c | 31.08$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2,428 | 44.9%1,091 W · 1,337 L | -31.5wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11a4…f434backed No | 62c | 31$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.22 | 475 | 69.5%330 W · 145 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 68cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x005e…6d8ebacked No | 40c | 30.72$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 2,046 | 57%1,167 W · 879 L | +73.4wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed No | 60c | 30.13$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…6597backed No | 66c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.71 | 995 | 71.1%707 W · 288 L | +22.0wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4eab…2caabacked No | 63c | 27.48$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.19 | 445 | 67%298 W · 147 L | +17.6wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | +5.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x759d…cc80backed No | 54c | 27.28$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.77 | 778 | 51.9%404 W · 374 L | -9.9wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7581…2ca4backed Yes | 39c | 25.51$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.51 | 208 | 33.2%69 W · 139 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb8d…0511backed Yes | 40c | 25$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15 | 36 | 52.8%19 W · 17 L | +3.8wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x86c2…8010backed No | 57c | 24.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.24 | 1,271 | 47.6%605 W · 666 L | -25.1wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ad…9a0dbacked Yes | 58c | 24$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.99 | 234 | 63.7%149 W · 85 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 61cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 49c | 22.51$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x60ce…b36fbacked No | 70c | 22.4$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 38 | 52.6%20 W · 18 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x32b9…9a9cbacked No | 58c | 21.6$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 649 | 60.2%391 W · 258 L | -17.0wins | -0.03per pick | 63cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 56c | 21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e4…b7f1backed Yes | 63c | 21$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.75 | 2,065 | 56.3%1,163 W · 902 L | +56.7wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd521…1889backed No | 71c | 20.61$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.63 | 34 | 70.6%24 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 65c | 20$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe970…1006backed Yes | 56c | 19.17$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.35 | 13 | 92.3%12 W · 1 L | +3.6wins | +0.28per pick | 65cpaid | +61.1%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x12ea…a131backed No | 63c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 985 | 65.1%641 W · 344 L | -13.1wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a9…dcf5backed No | 64c | 16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.16 | 65 | 56.9%37 W · 28 L | -6.8wins | -0.11per pick | 67cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x43df…8d83backed No | 64c | 15.63$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc176…5d01backed Yes | 75c | 14.66$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.66 | 104 | 63.5%66 W · 38 L | +6.1wins | +0.06per pick | 58cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 8?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 26°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 28°C on June 8?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on June 8?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.