Chess · resolved market
FIDE World Cup 2025 Quarterfinals - Shankland vs Esipenko (Advances)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa2249af58b62ac377205e33f763ac747945bdf45076ea8c57c0c4ae19cb96be
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Esipenkoof Shankland, Esipenko
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Chessevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $3,444
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $3,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $3,444 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Chess is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Chess | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfa01…f0a7backed Esipenko | 58c | 885.6$514 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.87 | 74 | 41.9%31 W · 43 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd986…1320backed Shankland | 41c | 590.69$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.98 | 52 | 32.7%17 W · 35 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Shankland | 23c | 233$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09f0…5991backed Esipenko | 58c | 166.31$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +71.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36bf…2864backed Esipenko | 54c | 109$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.61 | 116 | 31%36 W · 80 L | +7.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Shankland | 42c | 100$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Esipenko | 54c | 100$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 77 | 35.1%27 W · 50 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 38cpaid | -29.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6149…8a58backed Shankland | 39c | 73.64$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.72 | 45 | 53.3%24 W · 21 L | +2.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed Esipenko | 62c | 72.25$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.22 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfa6c…e935backed Esipenko | 59c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.7 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8936…d010backed Esipenko | 54c | 48.27$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.2 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd17c…b09cbacked Shankland | 47c | 42.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 55cpaid | -40%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Esipenko | 52c | 40.36$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.37 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6236…6881backed Shankland | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.36 | 35 | 31.4%11 W · 24 L | -4.7wins | -0.13per pick | 45cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0f75…dc70backed Esipenko | 60c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Esipenko | 59c | 38.75$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.9 | 87 | 32.2%28 W · 59 L | -10.8wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xae50…0119backed Esipenko | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b9…3058backed Esipenko | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.14per pick | 61cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Chess and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.