MLB · resolved market
Marlins vs. White Sox
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa275d6645991600c9b12b1de3b2d35f5fa2d1eedabbb5f8f7d6031c52619d3c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Marlinsof Marlins, White Sox
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $43,593
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $49,837
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $43,593 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 51 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7ba5…aaf1backed White Sox | 61c | 15,866$9,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,639.76 | 540 | 48.3%261 W · 279 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6a8…5009backed Marlins | 36c | 6,735$2,425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,309.97 | 2,274 | 43.2%983 W · 1,291 L | +43.8wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -8.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x24df…e8b2backed Marlins | 47c | 4,477$2,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,391.42 | 1,203 | 44.2%532 W · 671 L | +20.5wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…d0d5backed White Sox | 66c | 3,719$2,463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,463.17 | 213 | 56.3%120 W · 93 L | -6.5wins | -0.03per pick | 59cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1608…a990backed Marlins | 37c | 2,511$919 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,592.68 | 312 | 48.4%151 W · 161 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a2…3b96backed Marlins | 50c | 2,000$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,000 | 54 | 61.1%33 W · 21 L | +3.8wins | +0.07per pick | 54cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfba6…375cbacked Marlins | 33c | 1,599$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,071.32 | 867 | 51.8%449 W · 418 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 52cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x674d…def3backed White Sox | 49c | 1,168$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.34 | 144 | 44.4%64 W · 80 L | -5.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…f219backed Marlins | 51c | 1,000$510 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490 | 1,250 | 52.2%653 W · 597 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed White Sox | 60c | 923.19$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$550.2 | 4,169 | 50.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L | +92.5wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef75…5d78backed Marlins | 37c | 555.04$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.49 | 1,358 | 45.9%624 W · 734 L | +41.5wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xde04…fa37backed Marlins | 35c | 555$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$358.49 | 1,510 | 39%589 W · 921 L | -16.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Marlins | 49c | 362.04$177 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.64 | 2,470 | 52.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe98f…a7b9backed White Sox | 62c | 300$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked White Sox | 43c | 228.28$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.83 | 639 | 42.7%273 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed White Sox | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1,435 | 50%717 W · 718 L | +25.8wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x067f…e041backed White Sox | 51c | 200$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102 | 932 | 40.5%377 W · 555 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a9e…f27abacked White Sox | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 48 | 54.2%26 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8b7e…6a9fbacked White Sox | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,033 | 52.4%1,066 W · 967 L | -35.5wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc4b…5a92backed White Sox | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2,267 | 53.3%1,208 W · 1,059 L | -12.4wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc91a…c6b8backed White Sox | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 107 | 46.7%50 W · 57 L | +4.4wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0df8…b67ebacked Marlins | 50c | 194$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97 | 92 | 45.7%42 W · 50 L | -3.7wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -12%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…2bc1backed Marlins | 40c | 125$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75 | 65 | 24.6%16 W · 49 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -36.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x63ed…92bebacked Marlins | 32c | 124.24$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84.24 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa44f…38b7backed Marlins | 51c | 100$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.8wins | +0.25per pick | 46cpaid | +53.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…72f7backed White Sox | 51c | 98.04$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.4wins | -0.10per pick | 46cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb786…b18dbacked Marlins | 33c | 91.89$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.57 | 1,591 | 50.3%801 W · 790 L | +68.9wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9d16…8444backed Marlins | 50c | 89.86$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.86 | 35 | 68.6%24 W · 11 L | +3.0wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9418…4f2abacked White Sox | 51c | 79.65$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.62 | 493 | 48.3%238 W · 255 L | +15.7wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1803…772ebacked White Sox | 51c | 78.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 20 | 60%12 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x817a…d5d7backed White Sox | 68c | 73.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf520…0637backed Marlins | 33c | 61.45$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 979 | 50.2%491 W · 488 L | +49.6wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb97…add3backed Marlins | 51c | 52.43$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.69 | 71 | 42.3%30 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf898…e720backed Marlins | 53c | 52.12$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.65 | 6,303 | 48.2%3,041 W · 3,262 L | +181.4wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13d…2e90backed Marlins | 48c | 51.92$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 686 | 56.4%387 W · 299 L | +38.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ed5…e9bfbacked White Sox | 59c | 50.85$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 177 | 44.1%78 W · 99 L | -6.9wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xef63…96cbbacked White Sox | 52c | 50$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 467 | 53.7%251 W · 216 L | -11.0wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa337…9e54backed White Sox | 51c | 49.02$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 944 | 55.3%522 W · 422 L | -2.9wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0869…3e89backed White Sox | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x964e…a040backed Marlins | 50c | 43$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +100%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bae…2e92backed White Sox | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5efc…ee80backed Marlins | 50c | 39.9$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.9 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 45cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x76b5…c1cebacked Marlins | 51c | 39.22$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.22 | 91 | 57.1%52 W · 39 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b3d…25b7backed White Sox | 52c | 38.1$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb14…5358backed White Sox | 50c | 35$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 163 | 47.2%77 W · 86 L | -5.1wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe401…7b88backed Marlins | 45c | 34.75$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.17 | 9,728 | 46.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L | +32.8wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69a8…fb9dbacked Marlins | 78c | 34.45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.45 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -4.6wins | -0.29per pick | 48cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3539…b17bbacked Marlins | 37c | 33.77$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.14 | 29 | 62.1%18 W · 11 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 53cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd4…1b50backed White Sox | 51c | 30.39$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.5 | 2,045 | 53.8%1,100 W · 945 L | +32.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5f…84bfbacked Marlins | 51c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1,051 | 50.4%530 W · 521 L | -9.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc026…3584backed White Sox | 51c | 22.55$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 52cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.