Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa28d29a2b55c0d947c78f7b2d0952a00086758e40c94239930d97e909305c6b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $19,637
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $21,857
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $19,637 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0a19…3c95backed No | 77c | 1,091$835 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$835.33 | 428 | 57%244 W · 184 L | +8.9wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed No | 13c | 1,080$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.15 | 618 | 21.2%131 W · 487 L | -34.2wins | -0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -48.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 45c | 701.03$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$385.14 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 24c | 525.35$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$400.87 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 23c | 519.67$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$398.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 62c | 362.79$227 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$136.09 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 36c | 311.72$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.9 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 23c | 240$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.8 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf8a8…d879backed Yes | 25c | 227.14$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.91 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 29c | 215.07$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153.74 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 27c | 201.65$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.21 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 56c | 199.7$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.7 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 196.45$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.84 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8677…9724backed Yes | 47c | 194.21$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.6 | 55 | 40%22 W · 33 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaafc…ec67backed Yes | 63c | 184.69$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.18 | 447 | 57.3%256 W · 191 L | +53.9wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +24%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 7c | 180.34$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.49 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe2fb…1c67backed Yes | 67c | 135.37$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.13 | 98 | 77.6%76 W · 22 L | +16.3wins | +0.17per pick | 61cpaid | +38.3%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 44c | 135.33$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 73c | 113.16$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.16 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 27c | 103.06$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.55 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62e2…1f89backed No | 74c | 99.33$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.96 | 100 | 67%67 W · 33 L | +7.2wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 53c | 97.22$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.28 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 34c | 97.08$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.4 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6372…4a25backed No | 79c | 92.66$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.06 | 410 | 70.5%289 W · 121 L | +7.4wins | +0.02per pick | 69cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…0952backed Yes | 33c | 84.1$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 72c | 81.31$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.38 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked Yes | 22c | 75.86$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.39 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 76c | 73.08$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.54 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa026…734cbacked Yes | 17c | 70.19$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.25 | 46 | 21.7%10 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 53c | 69.95$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.05 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f3c…b4b8backed Yes | 23c | 59.99$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.2 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 36c | 56.01$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.61 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd7ba…1349backed No | 68c | 55.59$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 271 | 67.2%182 W · 89 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 67cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…a01abacked Yes | 69c | 55.51$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.03 | 616 | 59.3%365 W · 251 L | +68.7wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +17%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 54$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed No | 73c | 52.46$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.29 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cb7…1a88backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 999 | 49.5%495 W · 504 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 28c | 49.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.82 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6bac…4e7ebacked Yes | 74c | 49.36$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.84 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +18.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd271…37e0backed Yes | 24c | 48.15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.43 | 310 | 29.7%92 W · 218 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed Yes | 22c | 47.81$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.17 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c23…56ecbacked Yes | 40c | 47.11$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.31 | 301 | 41.2%124 W · 177 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa28…090bbacked Yes | 22c | 46.73$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.68 | 2,239 | 15%335 W · 1,904 L | +54.6wins | +0.02per pick | 13cpaid | +24%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 58c | 44.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…1e41backed Yes | 55c | 43.33$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.45 | 29 | 37.9%11 W · 18 L | -6.1wins | -0.21per pick | 59cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0408…3d68backed Yes | 80c | 42$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 212 | 62.3%132 W · 80 L | +20.9wins | +0.10per pick | 52cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 72c | 38$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xafb1…0329backed No | 70c | 34.63$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.24 | 81 | 60.5%49 W · 32 L | -2.9wins | -0.04per pick | 64cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x36c2…2b8cbacked No | 76c | 33.07$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.22 | 707 | 70.2%496 W · 211 L | -4.2wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 32.02$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.73 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe744…67a8backed No | 72c | 31.81$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 154 | 77.9%120 W · 34 L | +3.7wins | +0.02per pick | 75cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x349d…155cbacked Yes | 47c | 28.16$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 43 | 34.9%15 W · 28 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 39cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f8a…2cbebacked Yes | 44c | 27.94$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.62 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x858b…a2cebacked No | 45c | 27.2$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.29 | 171 | 44.4%76 W · 95 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…25ffbacked No | 77c | 25.26$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 46 | 82.6%38 W · 8 L | +7.8wins | +0.17per pick | 66cpaid | +50.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x0005…d5fdbacked Yes | 50c | 22.91$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 36 | 30.6%11 W · 25 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 70c | 21.36$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2002…996bbacked Yes | 63c | 18.82$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.04 | 65 | 78.5%51 W · 14 L | +6.9wins | +0.11per pick | 68cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x298e…107ebacked No | 72c | 16$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.52 | 261 | 69.3%181 W · 80 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73dc…70b2backed Yes | 76c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +2.8wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1231…f9a5backed No | 74c | 14.01$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.