Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 1?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1d19d024a541c2c851cfe1279f19d7831b2bd1a2277d5073a90b1fc0e7af452c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $17,067
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,881
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $17,067 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc6a1…b1ecbacked Yes | 38c | 596.22$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.7 | 101 | 20.8%21 W · 80 L | -2.7wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 4c | 380$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.4 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe48b…fdc2backed Yes | 26c | 318.63$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.91 | 619 | 29.1%180 W · 439 L | +21.8wins | +0.04per pick | 26cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed No | 73c | 273.95$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 59c | 238.92$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.07 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2974…e9d8backed Yes | 23c | 225.63$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 233 | 23.6%55 W · 178 L | +5.1wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 28c | 201.27$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.89 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 54c | 200.07$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.22 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 11c | 181.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ddc…a869backed No | 72c | 174.87$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 34 | 50%17 W · 17 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -15%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 55c | 168.73$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.72 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 28c | 134$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.58 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 68c | 128.12$87 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.21 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 41c | 110.65$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.19 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1361…f12bbacked Yes | 31c | 107.03$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.76 | 1,924 | 33.8%651 W · 1,273 L | +29.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd99b…295ebacked Yes | 52c | 106.81$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.85 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.14per pick | 49cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e84…659dbacked No | 46c | 102.67$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.36 | 34 | 73.5%25 W · 9 L | +2.4wins | +0.07per pick | 66cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd354…4d78backed Yes | 37c | 101.82$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.31 | 101 | 32.7%33 W · 68 L | -1.9wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 58c | 99.49$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.07 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ce2…dd34backed Yes | 28c | 99.48$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.85 | 107 | 32.7%35 W · 72 L | -8.9wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…6987backed Yes | 48c | 93.84$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 13 | 69.2%9 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 59cpaid | +11.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 28c | 83.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.18 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 72c | 82.93$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.04 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3556…d33ebacked Yes | 49c | 82.5$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.83 | 33 | 45.5%15 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x906f…371abacked No | 72c | 79.48$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.07 | 2,495 | 69.9%1,744 W · 751 L | +80.3wins | +0.03per pick | 67cpaid | +5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e04…d367backed No | 74c | 77.36$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.84 | 89 | 69.7%62 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 71cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf855…0952backed Yes | 36c | 76.97$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -11%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 43c | 76.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.87 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 63c | 71.83$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.76 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8dc9…dce0backed Yes | 39c | 71.55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.94 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc046…f138backed Yes | 41c | 69.29$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.19 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 68c | 68.01$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 24c | 67.07$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.79 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 36c | 66$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8454…3587backed No | 79c | 64.95$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.71 | 273 | 76.6%209 W · 64 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 76cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 49c | 63.9$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.14 | 81 | 49.4%40 W · 41 L | -8.3wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1746…24a5backed Yes | 32c | 61.02$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.53 | 55 | 20%11 W · 44 L | -1.3wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5b11…2976backed Yes | 50c | 57.36$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.49 | 499 | 41.7%208 W · 291 L | -2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e1…6579backed No | 70c | 57.14$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.14 | 28 | 57.1%16 W · 12 L | +1.5wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b20…62cbbacked No | 74c | 56.69$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.58 | 118 | 74.6%88 W · 30 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 50c | 54$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 74c | 53.23$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.84 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8ada…4908backed Yes | 26c | 52.62$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.74 | 79 | 59.5%47 W · 32 L | +6.4wins | +0.08per pick | 51cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xde5e…cb4ebacked Yes | 30c | 47.57$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca5…32bebacked Yes | 31c | 47.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.38 | 58 | 41.4%24 W · 34 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea0d…c1b6backed No | 75c | 46.6$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 216 | 76.4%165 W · 51 L | +12.5wins | +0.06per pick | 71cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1203…3947backed Yes | 33c | 44.82$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 156 | 39.7%62 W · 94 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -18%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x993f…35cbbacked No | 70c | 42.34$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.87 | 1,842 | 63.5%1,170 W · 672 L | -42.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3007…8f81backed Yes | 45c | 42.19$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 70 | 44.3%31 W · 39 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f44…c470backed Yes | 26c | 41.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.68 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +2.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35e6…7a4dbacked No | 72c | 38.02$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.72 | 1,699 | 60.6%1,029 W · 670 L | -24.7wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbbe8…5ecebacked Yes | 50c | 38$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 40cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a06…15a9backed Yes | 28c | 37.07$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.29 | 567 | 21.3%121 W · 446 L | -25.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe058…cf72backed Yes | 30c | 36.94$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.08 | 26 | 42.3%11 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x356b…1c3fbacked Yes | 33c | 35.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 591 | 25.9%153 W · 438 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ef3…ac46backed No | 53c | 35.96$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.9 | 194 | 49%95 W · 99 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dc…dec3backed No | 76c | 34.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.38 | 1,360 | 69.3%943 W · 417 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 69cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb27…cc9dbacked Yes | 52c | 33.17$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.39 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe78c…6b61backed Yes | 35c | 31.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d47…10b4backed No | 46c | 31.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 223 | 44.8%100 W · 123 L | -7.4wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x286d…825abacked No | 69c | 31.02$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.48 | 625 | 55.2%345 W · 280 L | -12.1wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…e255backed No | 45c | 30.81$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.95 | 119 | 25.2%30 W · 89 L | -14.1wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -37.4%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc24f…81d3backed No | 76c | 30.48$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.33 | 985 | 71%699 W · 286 L | +5.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 56c | 30.43$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82ce…e92abacked No | 62c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 124 | 67.7%84 W · 40 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4bcd…19c2backed No | 70c | 28.56$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.57 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04b4…8d0bbacked No | 73c | 28.23$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.52 | 9 | 88.9%8 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 73cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae47…638dbacked No | 74c | 25.44$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.74 | 525 | 71.2%374 W · 151 L | +4.7wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 58c | 24.82$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x966c…087fbacked No | 50c | 21.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 441 | 47.4%209 W · 232 L | -17.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13f3…d427backed No | 72c | 21.05$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.89 | 326 | 69%225 W · 101 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 72cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…a957backed No | 77c | 20.44$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 39 | 76.9%30 W · 9 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 73cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb9ef…0cf9backed No | 73c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.4 | 64 | 64.1%41 W · 23 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 60cpaid | -4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9770…d57dbacked No | 72c | 19.85$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.61 | 486 | 72%350 W · 136 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 70cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe9da…ed70backed No | 68c | 17.36$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.56 | 763 | 71.4%545 W · 218 L | +11.2wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc7…54abbacked No | 67c | 16.35$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.41 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39fa…0b7dbacked No | 75c | 16$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 407 | 77.1%314 W · 93 L | +28.1wins | +0.07per pick | 70cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…4613backed No | 74c | 15.74$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.09 | 77 | 77.9%60 W · 17 L | +5.1wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 26°C on April 1?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 24°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 25°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 27°C on April 1?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 28°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 29°C on April 1?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 30°C or higher on April 1?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.