Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 2?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa5c965ec3376852daec6aa3e396096a5e60cea2687b1329335965895916ea2b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,835
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 75 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc9de…81d9backed Yes | 47c | 509.21$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$267.71 | 420 | 36.4%153 W · 267 L | +12.3wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x46f1…701fbacked No | 42c | 493.37$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.65 | 2,877 | 55.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L | -59.3wins | -0.02per pick | 57cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 20c | 331.34$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.34 | 4,142 | 54.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L | -16.6wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 40c | 321.41$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.26 | 1,280 | 51.2%655 W · 625 L | -33.7wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a21…9318backed No | 20c | 305.88$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.67 | 6,592 | 53.1%3,503 W · 3,089 L | +400.2wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa61f…fa82backed No | 5c | 304$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.88 | 54 | 5.6%3 W · 51 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 60c | 300$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf333…ba41backed No | 39c | 299.6$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.84 | 869 | 49.8%433 W · 436 L | -24.0wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 52c | 293.21$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.89 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a72…a2abbacked No | 39c | 279.6$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.04 | 74 | 43.2%32 W · 42 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b8e…9e2abacked Yes | 74c | 203.97$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.97 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd24b…187dbacked No | 21c | 184.93$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.83 | 613 | 65.3%400 W · 213 L | +43.8wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe695…538ebacked Yes | 62c | 149.5$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.14 | 818 | 55%450 W · 368 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 42c | 125.64$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.75 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5bcd…cf4bbacked No | 39c | 120$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.8 | 360 | 57.5%207 W · 153 L | +21.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8edc…80d8backed Yes | 55c | 109.75$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.35 | 1,179 | 56.4%665 W · 514 L | +19.0wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x069b…3b3bbacked Yes | 59c | 106.53$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.56 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.9 | 4,267 | 53.4%2,279 W · 1,988 L | +156.0wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd9c…f0c8backed Yes | 60c | 90$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 73 | 47.9%35 W · 38 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0947…9e92backed Yes | 56c | 90$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.6 | 581 | 52%302 W · 279 L | +8.3wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbddc…5d4fbacked Yes | 62c | 80.65$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.65 | 644 | 46.4%299 W · 345 L | +19.3wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f2a…3706backed No | 51c | 76.25$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 348 | 53.4%186 W · 162 L | -19.2wins | -0.06per pick | 59cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 22c | 73.96$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.18 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 37c | 73.19$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.01 | 2,262 | 39.6%895 W · 1,367 L | -56.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x37e9…ab9fbacked Yes | 63c | 70$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.9 | 245 | 42.9%105 W · 140 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f30…f8debacked Yes | 65c | 70$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.5 | 3,830 | 47.1%1,805 W · 2,025 L | +63.6wins | +0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46e2…96a8backed Yes | 69c | 69.97$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.97 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe00a…330ebacked Yes | 65c | 61.54$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.54 | 207 | 50.2%104 W · 103 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 34c | 60.85$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf38…c19ebacked Yes | 58c | 60.34$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.34 | 612 | 49.5%303 W · 309 L | +30.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a3…ad9ebacked No | 53c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.5 | 160 | 46.3%74 W · 86 L | -6.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ff2…01b9backed Yes | 73c | 60$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16 | 869 | 52.7%458 W · 411 L | -3.9wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 40c | 60$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.84 | 4,104 | 56.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L | +50.5wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1bf7…40c0backed No | 49c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.46 | 800 | 50.1%401 W · 399 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 34c | 59.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.42 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 72c | 59$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.42 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfbd8…4027backed No | 34c | 58$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.85 | 5,631 | 59.9%3,374 W · 2,257 L | -111.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61f9…8055backed No | 36c | 53.29$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.3 | 905 | 55.6%503 W · 402 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 56cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xefe7…a709backed No | 38c | 51.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed Yes | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.05 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf18c…18c1backed No | 53c | 50$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.5 | 439 | 59.5%261 W · 178 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e48…902dbacked No | 37c | 50$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.5 | 133 | 51.1%68 W · 65 L | -4.2wins | -0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd90…4bfcbacked Yes | 58c | 45.29$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.08 | 577 | 47%271 W · 306 L | +40.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…89d9backed Yes | 61c | 45$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.55 | 293 | 45.1%132 W · 161 L | -10.2wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe422…4d64backed No | 46c | 45$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.7 | 2,065 | 43.6%900 W · 1,165 L | -11.3wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1917…138bbacked No | 40c | 44.82$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 337 | 46.9%158 W · 179 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeff4…88d2backed No | 45c | 44.44$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | -2.8wins | -0.15per pick | 67cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf48c…8ec6backed No | 38c | 43.75$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.61 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a29…3cc9backed Yes | 61c | 41.35$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.13 | 701 | 48.4%339 W · 362 L | -5.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb46…56e7backed Yes | 62c | 40.01$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.01 | 421 | 48%202 W · 219 L | +4.3wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5157…fdbcbacked No | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 533 | 53.1%283 W · 250 L | -8.8wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcb53…fde7backed No | 43c | 40$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.2 | 259 | 54.1%140 W · 119 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 41c | 40$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.4 | 3,057 | 61.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L | -35.2wins | -0.01per pick | 63cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 44c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.6 | 1,722 | 64%1,102 W · 620 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xffd0…cd07backed No | 46c | 39.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 2,311 | 57.7%1,334 W · 977 L | -19.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec62…9191backed Yes | 53c | 37.73$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.73 | 1,102 | 40.7%448 W · 654 L | +18.7wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe128…ccb4backed Yes | 58c | 36.21$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.21 | 25 | 56%14 W · 11 L | -1.3wins | -0.05per pick | 61cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52eb…67acbacked Yes | 57c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.97 | 4,988 | 49.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L | -155.4wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc662…0927backed No | 53c | 32.96$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.47 | 1,190 | 57.9%689 W · 501 L | -5.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 48c | 32.69$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.53 | 1,991 | 52.3%1,042 W · 949 L | -76.1wins | -0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3170…ec92backed Yes | 61c | 31.15$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.15 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb782…aa2dbacked Yes | 65c | 30.75$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.75 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.15per pick | 48cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5647…de1dbacked Yes | 66c | 30.3$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.3 | 479 | 35.3%169 W · 310 L | -6.3wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5,389 | 56%3,017 W · 2,372 L | -120.8wins | -0.02per pick | 58cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x68a8…552fbacked Yes | 62c | 28.81$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.01 | 35 | 65.7%23 W · 12 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbf92…150fbacked Yes | 66c | 28.57$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.71 | 164 | 40.2%66 W · 98 L | -5.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0380…073dbacked No | 41c | 28.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.51 | 4,257 | 65.3%2,779 W · 1,478 L | +17.6wins | 0.00per pick | 65cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d60…a7a5backed No | 39c | 26.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.18 | 425 | 55.1%234 W · 191 L | +13.4wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 55c | 25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55bc…52d8backed Yes | 63c | 22.7$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 68 | 39.7%27 W · 41 L | -3.0wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -21.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa109…7e42backed Yes | 65c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7 | 110 | 68.2%75 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.03per pick | 65cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5bbe…85a3backed Yes | 58c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcc2c…0a2cbacked No | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1,550 | 56.7%879 W · 671 L | -83.2wins | -0.05per pick | 62cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf713…86fdbacked Yes | 72c | 19.53$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.53 | 46 | 45.7%21 W · 25 L | -2.0wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b31…4eb6backed Yes | 71c | 16.69$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.9 | 219 | 64.8%142 W · 77 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 66cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 2?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on July 2?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on July 2?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.