Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaa84d707ce52915f86d452c2b499336667b7af900ead36e284eb8fda78c9604f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $25,556
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $25,951
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $25,556 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 58 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 3,892$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.79 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 2c | 1,196$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae2e…40adbacked Yes | 1c | 1,067$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.53 | 295 | 20.7%61 W · 234 L | +7.8wins | +0.03per pick | 18cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 2c | 750.16$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.27 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbf…0771backed Yes | 3c | 628.88$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.3 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8bca…e136backed Yes | 2c | 585.76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.19 | 445 | 36.2%161 W · 284 L | +13.0wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked Yes | 26c | 347.76$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.12 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 10c | 284.78$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.38 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dd3…ccacbacked Yes | 8c | 280.45$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.37 | 346 | 24.3%84 W · 262 L | +7.0wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6659…b7cabacked Yes | 6c | 278.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 938 | 37.6%353 W · 585 L | -14.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b99…296bbacked Yes | 12c | 265.16$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.15 | 58 | 25.9%15 W · 43 L | -2.8wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 6c | 253.13$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 9c | 214.23$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 14c | 210$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.25 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x73c2…4261backed Yes | 6c | 200.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x044f…d1f1backed No | 61c | 198.33$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$77.08 | 8,162 | 49.4%4,035 W · 4,127 L | +269.7wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe99…9ca7backed Yes | 18c | 166.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 669 | 26.2%175 W · 494 L | -1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 24c | 163.56$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4179…cceebacked No | 75c | 132.59$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.79 | 429 | 76.5%328 W · 101 L | +4.5wins | +0.01per pick | 75cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 11c | 129.11$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 29c | 121.61$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0fac…b5b4backed Yes | 14c | 120.19$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 28 | 7.1%2 W · 26 L | -3.2wins | -0.11per pick | 18cpaid | -82.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1b72…42b9backed Yes | 18c | 116.5$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.35 | 807 | 35.4%286 W · 521 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a19…1e2ebacked No | 76c | 100$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 417 | 67.9%283 W · 134 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 66cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f8…5d56backed Yes | 11c | 99.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b13…62d3backed Yes | 38c | 94.67$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.7 | 1,052 | 31.2%328 W · 724 L | -8.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa98a…a5a8backed Yes | 12c | 87.33$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 2,015 | 67.7%1,365 W · 650 L | +1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 68cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff74…5de4backed Yes | 37c | 85.3$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.66 | 659 | 34.1%225 W · 434 L | +36.6wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 32c | 84.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.4 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 20c | 82.97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.38 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7554…0b84backed Yes | 40c | 71.94$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.1 | 140 | 40.7%57 W · 83 L | +4.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 35c | 70$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdedd…17e1backed No | 76c | 69.97$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.92 | 2,432 | 60.4%1,470 W · 962 L | +30.2wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723a…6a11backed Yes | 15c | 67.47$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x496f…fa5dbacked Yes | 37c | 63.77$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.45 | 4,514 | 52.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L | +47.8wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 31c | 60$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.6 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 67c | 58.28$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.06 | 999 | 63.5%634 W · 365 L | -3.0wins | 0.00per pick | 64cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 53.99$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.88 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9410…9160backed Yes | 36c | 53.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 420 | 49%206 W · 214 L | -15.9wins | -0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5f3e…5337backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 818 | 48.5%397 W · 421 L | +6.6wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 36c | 50$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3da3…0fdcbacked Yes | 47c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 1,024 | 25%256 W · 768 L | +20.4wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x017c…00c3backed Yes | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 250 | 42.4%106 W · 144 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e27…9967backed No | 79c | 47.29$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.95 | 137 | 65.7%90 W · 47 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2656…a5b8backed Yes | 39c | 33.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.17 | 75 | 24%18 W · 57 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.53 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe7f…7428backed Yes | 40c | 32.9$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.16 | 81 | 23.5%19 W · 62 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 35c | 32$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.04 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5e…40fbbacked No | 80c | 31$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.2 | 335 | 61.5%206 W · 129 L | -22.2wins | -0.07per pick | 68cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…69b0backed Yes | 33c | 30.6$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 464 | 44.4%206 W · 258 L | -18.2wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb70d…253abacked Yes | 42c | 27.46$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.63 | 151 | 52.3%79 W · 72 L | +4.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed5…7c3abacked Yes | 43c | 27.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 200 | 37%74 W · 126 L | -3.5wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -10.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5eb6backed No | 80c | 23.52$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.7 | 517 | 62.3%322 W · 195 L | -15.5wins | -0.03per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa1bd…940ebacked No | 62c | 22.76$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.65 | 170 | 71.2%121 W · 49 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 70cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd85…7a3dbacked No | 60c | 21.9$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.75 | 1,050 | 51.2%538 W · 512 L | -99.4wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x8cd6…092abacked No | 60c | 16.8$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.72 | 247 | 36%89 W · 158 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaad7…cf8fbacked No | 78c | 15$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.3 | 861 | 73.2%630 W · 231 L | +13.2wins | +0.02per pick | 72cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd7a…7bfbbacked No | 74c | 14.64$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.83 | 4,961 | 68.3%3,386 W · 1,575 L | +65.6wins | +0.01per pick | 67cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.