TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on May 7?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$79,819
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$91,899

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $79,819 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 93 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes0c6,024$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,010.59,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57ee…8112backed No1c3,214$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.521,72718%311 W · 1,416 L+74.3wins+0.04per pick14cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8bad…b337backed No3c3,162$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.3932310.5%34 W · 289 L+15.6wins+0.05per pick6cpaid+54.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1838…29b4backed No1c2,536$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.4896313.7%132 W · 831 L+33.9wins+0.04per pick10cpaid+35.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdafd…2ad4backed No2c2,011$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.1612228.7%35 W · 87 L+9.2wins+0.08per pick21cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x5a8b…808ebacked Yes22c1,359$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,060.95125.5%13 W · 38 L+2.9wins+0.06per pick20cpaid-15.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd06f…6719backed Yes35c1,339$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$865.3492028.7%264 W · 656 L+29.5wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-8.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed No14c1,248$179 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.1459021.7%128 W · 462 L-24.2wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-40.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No14c1,212$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$167.524,10456.6%2,322 W · 1,782 L+50.5wins+0.01per pick55cpaid-6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x828b…87a6backed Yes3c1,031$34 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.327441.9%31 W · 43 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+36.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x94af…e65fbacked Yes68c673.65$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.292740.7%11 W · 16 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-12.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc55…838fbacked Yes21c628.92$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$496.9211753%62 W · 55 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No5c506.9$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.111,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae2e…40adbacked No3c500$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.529520.7%61 W · 234 L+7.8wins+0.03per pick18cpaid+25.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes74c438.83$326 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7611438.6%44 W · 70 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick38cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes24c435.99$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.223836.8%14 W · 24 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick40cpaid+28.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5a2b…c3cbbacked Yes16c318.38$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$268.3814222.5%32 W · 110 L-5.5wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd1a6…1507backed No10c315.35$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.62,62654%1,418 W · 1,208 L-56.4wins-0.02per pick56cpaid-19.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5da…27b7backed No8c307.52$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.876053.3%32 W · 28 L+4.0wins+0.07per pick47cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5264…9a63backed Yes5c299.99$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$285.1474023.9%177 W · 563 L+23.6wins+0.03per pick21cpaid+23.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0eee…74e8backed Yes5c257.66$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$245.1240025.5%102 W · 298 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick24cpaid+2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef98…7926backed Yes10c250$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22542315.4%65 W · 358 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+12.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x73c2…4261backed Yes22c250$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.721723.5%4 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick26cpaid-9.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdedd…17e1backed No45c235.43$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.312,43260.4%1,470 W · 962 L+30.2wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x354d…eb8fbacked No20c228.15$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0470133.5%235 W · 466 L+13.4wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+7.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No43c227.98$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.257,1489.3%666 W · 6,482 L-1,105.8wins-0.15per pick25cpaid-75.9%equal weight33-0.15 edge/pick
0xf8ac…6153backed Yes11c227.75$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$202.53742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick24cpaid+99.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa708…9321backed No33c221.7$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.781,29957.5%747 W · 552 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-9.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4130…2fd6backed Yes12c208.33$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.519832.7%32 W · 66 L+2.3wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed30…87b1backed No10c200.71$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0118549.7%92 W · 93 L+5.0wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5608…c0dbbacked No60c185.15$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.7919160.7%116 W · 75 L+11.6wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+8.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8f34…2f50backed No57c184.83$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.864,12060.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick60cpaid-4.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x82fd…c9a8backed Yes52c168.8$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.064143.9%18 W · 23 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa517…86c8backed No59c168.68$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.96966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick64cpaid+3.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes19c167.79$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.5510642.5%45 W · 61 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2612…5289backed Yes19c150.99$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.153,04840.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L-121.5wins-0.04per pick44cpaid-23.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x96e6…fecebacked Yes7c145.09$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.0926142.1%110 W · 151 L+15.8wins+0.06per pick36cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x59b6…fb20backed No78c144.46$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.681637.5%6 W · 10 L-3.4wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-8.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9f3f…af73backed Yes40c140.52$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.5219848%95 W · 103 L+7.0wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+13.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb40e…7cc9backed No56c139.9$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7812,49819.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L-2,667.3wins-0.21per pick41cpaid-66.8%equal weight26-0.21 edge/pick
0x7b99…296bbacked No18c137.02$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.125825.9%15 W · 43 L-2.8wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-58.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x8cd6…092abacked Yes7c136.05$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.9824736%89 W · 158 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick37cpaid+10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4179…cceebacked No75c130.15$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.0442976.5%328 W · 101 L+4.5wins+0.01per pick75cpaid+0.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcfff…673dbacked No54c126$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.573,05761.6%1,883 W · 1,174 L-35.2wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x030d…7ce5backed Yes25c113.49$28 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.232828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+12.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1c6d…8cc4backed Yes14c112.25$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.2527421.9%60 W · 214 L-6.8wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-4.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x764b…6badbacked No32c111$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.813,75561.1%2,293 W · 1,462 L-36.5wins-0.01per pick62cpaid-2.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf17…5c20backed Yes25c100$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.371,78725.7%460 W · 1,327 L+132.5wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+50.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc4f5…ee83backed Yes46c99.13$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.13875%6 W · 2 L+2.1wins+0.26per pick49cpaid+55.7%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3e75…3392backed Yes25c98.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.89683.3%5 W · 1 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick44cpaid+127%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0xc1a7…f77fbacked Yes25c95.28$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.4618038.9%70 W · 110 L+13.2wins+0.07per pick32cpaid+9.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2654…b45fbacked No63c90.38$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.961,08959.4%647 W · 442 L+2.3wins0.00per pick59cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4245…a467backed Yes57c88.53$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.8960739.7%241 W · 366 L+27.7wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+10.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd1fc…d98abacked Yes23c86.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.984060%24 W · 16 L+3.9wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+7.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x804d…cf86backed No33c86.45$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.157552%39 W · 36 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-5.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes51c84.19$43 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.275,83236.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L+211.1wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-24.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xcb26…0e22backed No76c83.55$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.639157%223 W · 168 L-6.0wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-9.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x86bd…2c98backed Yes23c78.86$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.8615131.1%47 W · 104 L-3.8wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa336…43f1backed Yes14c77.36$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.3615047.3%71 W · 79 L+10.5wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+18.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x149f…8527backed Yes52c77.03$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes77c74.48$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.492147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes28c70$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$50.5725946.3%120 W · 139 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9948…5da1backed No29c69.67$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205453.7%29 W · 25 L+1.1wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+10%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x8215…1279backed No49c69.6$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.0138758.7%227 W · 160 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa84…e985backed Yes67c68$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.540739.3%160 W · 247 L-11.2wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x515c…7587backed Yes44c67.57$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$37.5719648%94 W · 102 L-11.8wins-0.06per pick54cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfa96…7c9abacked Yes23c66.51$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.51366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.39per pick28cpaid+103.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf3d2…6efcbacked Yes20c64$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.0821930.1%66 W · 153 L+15.3wins+0.07per pick23cpaid+38.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3887…9496backed No25c62.97$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.6224370%170 W · 73 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick69cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9cb3…1367backed Yes49c62.23$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.871,55433.1%515 W · 1,039 L-66.6wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5964…35dfbacked No39c61.99$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.351,27933.6%430 W · 849 L-6.3wins0.00per pick34cpaid-7.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb732…6900backed No57c60.58$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7541258.3%240 W · 172 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x066a…5f24backed No48c60.49$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0461…fcbcbacked No68c59.99$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.7972466.2%479 W · 245 L+33.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+4.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7c52…1411backed Yes25c55.86$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.894540%18 W · 27 L+3.0wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes55c52.17$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.5742130.4%128 W · 293 L+19.5wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+6.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdee5…67bfbacked No75c51.9$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.931827.8%5 W · 13 L-3.4wins-0.19per pick47cpaid-54.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0ba3…57bcbacked No34c50.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.0239159.8%234 W · 157 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a56…be30backed No20c50$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1046452.2%242 W · 222 L+16.2wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+11.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7650…5099backed Yes63c47.08$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.282544%11 W · 14 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-13.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x52d7…0ff9backed No47c41.73$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.7838258.9%225 W · 157 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-5.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9b72…a958backed Yes25c41.5$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.2568645.8%314 W · 372 L-10.7wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-10.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaaa…da37backed No61c41.4$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3444659%263 W · 183 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9010…df3ebacked Yes54c40$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.5814144%62 W · 79 L+9.0wins+0.06per pick38cpaid+13.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No35c37.2$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1643859.6%261 W · 177 L+4.6wins+0.01per pick59cpaid-3.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4560…8ce8backed No70c36.62$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.6535058.3%204 W · 146 L+4.8wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e53…254cbacked Yes56c36.37$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.874431.8%14 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick38cpaid+11.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cfd…dfe7backed Yes74c33.65$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.7199961.8%617 W · 382 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick60cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e4b…ac6bbacked No48c33$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.8235854.7%196 W · 162 L-13.7wins-0.04per pick59cpaid-11.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ca7…c5b6backed Yes76c27.56$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.567100%7 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+51.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe422…4d64backed No41c25$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.252,06543.6%900 W · 1,165 L-11.3wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x429c…5f41backed Yes57c20.41$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.8810745.8%49 W · 58 L-7.4wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No70c20$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.042,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.