Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf017430e8320f25cf8555b1fbb35de552cbd41757d9e2805161dca8d0da1b08a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $38,848
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $36,608
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $38,848 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 63 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8103…23a1backed Yes | 1c | 4,059$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 576 | 14.9%86 W · 490 L | +14.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed Yes | 1c | 3,192$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.3 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x57ee…8112backed Yes | 1c | 1,560$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.19 | 1,727 | 18%311 W · 1,416 L | +74.3wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes | 3c | 991.58$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 9,799 | 44.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L | +256.4wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbda1…827fbacked No | 78c | 777.33$608 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.05 | 309 | 19.4%60 W · 249 L | -17.1wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8fb4…b9edbacked Yes | 4c | 543.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.3 | 421 | 30.4%128 W · 293 L | +19.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2612…5289backed No | 73c | 395.4$289 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.88 | 3,048 | 40.5%1,234 W · 1,814 L | -121.5wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 6c | 365.09$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.56 | 1,554 | 33.1%515 W · 1,039 L | -66.6wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1735…0319backed Yes | 14c | 252.06$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.68 | 1,480 | 15.6%231 W · 1,249 L | +26.5wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc55…838fbacked Yes | 42c | 249.72$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 117 | 53%62 W · 55 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbc4…35e3backed Yes | 9c | 208.49$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.27 | 114 | 38.6%44 W · 70 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ac…6153backed Yes | 24c | 205.06$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.58 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 24cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…74e8backed Yes | 25c | 199.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 400 | 25.5%102 W · 298 L | +4.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b5d…57d3backed Yes | 32c | 186.82$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.9 | 743 | 38.2%284 W · 459 L | +17.8wins | +0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2dbb…f7ffbacked Yes | 27c | 180$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.29 | 38 | 36.8%14 W · 24 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4dc9…b10bbacked Yes | 21c | 176.87$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.68 | 73 | 28.8%21 W · 52 L | -4.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -22%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x57b9…05a0backed Yes | 14c | 163.91$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.92 | 181 | 6.1%11 W · 170 L | -14.8wins | -0.08per pick | 14cpaid | -69.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 13c | 152.13$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.46 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x2a87…a55abacked Yes | 32c | 150.99$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.88 | 1,112 | 35.1%390 W · 722 L | -13.2wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0bd…fe2abacked Yes | 29c | 149.72$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 106 | 42.5%45 W · 61 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 16c | 129.8$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.08 | 4,347 | 29.7%1,293 W · 3,054 L | +19.8wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.6%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 74c | 119.98$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.74 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa28…c37ebacked Yes | 34c | 116.51$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.41 | 3,939 | 35.3%1,392 W · 2,547 L | +35.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 65c | 107.12$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.3 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x354d…eb8fbacked Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 701 | 33.5%235 W · 466 L | +13.4wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa498…727bbacked Yes | 26c | 92$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.08 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf5dd…a04ebacked Yes | 35c | 86.4$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 50 | 48%24 W · 26 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52d7…0ff9backed No | 71c | 84.27$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.37 | 382 | 58.9%225 W · 157 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb06a…52f5backed Yes | 13c | 84.19$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 5,832 | 36.7%2,138 W · 3,694 L | +211.1wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4245…a467backed Yes | 35c | 80.03$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.83 | 607 | 39.7%241 W · 366 L | +27.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a94…c0dcbacked Yes | 31c | 79.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2936…6c5fbacked No | 66c | 75.72$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.58 | 342 | 50.6%173 W · 169 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86bd…2c98backed Yes | 21c | 72.73$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 151 | 31.1%47 W · 104 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xae8f…c820backed Yes | 30c | 70.78$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 635 | 38.1%242 W · 393 L | +6.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 16c | 70.42$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b42…9fc4backed Yes | 16c | 65$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.17 | 259 | 46.3%120 W · 139 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 71c | 64.44$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.77 | 391 | 58.1%227 W · 164 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d6f…0e20backed Yes | 31c | 64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 914 | 44.7%409 W · 505 L | +16.7wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | +4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4aa1…596cbacked Yes | 21c | 60$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.75 | 214 | 48.6%104 W · 110 L | +4.5wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6aab…ead7backed Yes | 33c | 59.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 101 | 41.6%42 W · 59 L | -8.3wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdbff…06d2backed Yes | 22c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.97 | 99 | 32.3%32 W · 67 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x00d7…a7fdbacked Yes | 28c | 55$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 79c | 54.14$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.31 | 446 | 59%263 W · 183 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe18c…dfa5backed Yes | 43c | 53.31$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfe2b…a481backed Yes | 39c | 51.54$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb29…0171backed Yes | 34c | 51.02$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.1 | 53 | 43.4%23 W · 30 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3f…af73backed Yes | 30c | 49.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 198 | 48%95 W · 103 L | +7.0wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 68c | 45.89$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.74 | 438 | 59.6%261 W · 177 L | +4.6wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d34…a917backed Yes | 34c | 40$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 55 | 34.5%19 W · 36 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb684…343cbacked No | 61c | 39.26$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.31 | 169 | 68%115 W · 54 L | +7.9wins | +0.05per pick | 63cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x149f…8527backed Yes | 40c | 37.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6fe…7e71backed Yes | 40c | 37.66$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 55 | 43.6%24 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5608…c0dbbacked No | 65c | 36.55$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.68 | 191 | 60.7%116 W · 75 L | +11.6wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f5…ee83backed Yes | 41c | 36.23$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +55.7%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xaa84…e985backed Yes | 36c | 34.35$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.33 | 407 | 39.3%160 W · 247 L | -11.2wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xeb54…d452backed No | 59c | 33$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 4,525 | 65.6%2,967 W · 1,558 L | -134.0wins | -0.03per pick | 69cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed No | 77c | 32$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.49 | 503 | 73.2%368 W · 135 L | +25.3wins | +0.05per pick | 68cpaid | +7.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xedbd…dd60backed No | 75c | 29.13$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.23 | 3,301 | 65%2,147 W · 1,154 L | -38.5wins | -0.01per pick | 66cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd34c…f04cbacked No | 71c | 28.2$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.26 | 673 | 36.1%243 W · 430 L | -48.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcb26…0e22backed No | 80c | 26.88$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.45 | 391 | 57%223 W · 168 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17e0…64e7backed No | 73c | 26.74$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.16 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7cab…7ff6backed No | 69c | 23.03$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.03 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -1.7wins | -0.25per pick | 68cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 67c | 15.28$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.01 | 391 | 59.8%234 W · 157 L | +3.8wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 18°C on May 7?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 17°C or below on May 7?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 19°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 20°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 21°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 22°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 23°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 24°C on May 7?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 25°C on May 7?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.