TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Diamondbacksof Dodgers, Diamondbacks
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$428,332
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$456,036

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $428,332 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 222 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf29b…dd4cbacked Diamondbacks40c128,888$51,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77,332.7838043.4%165 W · 215 L-5.5wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b1d…74ccbacked Diamondbacks40c88,574$35,429 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53,144.179440.4%38 W · 56 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-5.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ce8…4527backed Dodgers60c59,000$35,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,40044456.5%251 W · 193 L+21.2wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Dodgers55c51,290$28,073 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,073.471,38148.1%664 W · 717 L-13.2wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb1e…88d5backed Dodgers60c38,000$22,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,8007058.6%41 W · 29 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe38e…c29dbacked Dodgers60c30,000$18,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,00048254.4%262 W · 220 L-5.4wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Dodgers60c25,000$15,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15,0007363%46 W · 27 L+4.6wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+10.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb083…b3f0backed Diamondbacks40c20,000$8,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,00060249.5%298 W · 304 L+10.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Dodgers60c16,995$10,197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,197.1330842.9%132 W · 176 L-10.3wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3672…edbdbacked Dodgers79c16,019$12,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,6009146.2%42 W · 49 L-11.7wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-25.9%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x2f09…4632backed Dodgers60c12,892$7,735 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,735.225453.5%136 W · 118 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-4.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb412…3026backed Dodgers60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0008861.4%54 W · 34 L+6.7wins+0.08per pick54cpaid+9.6%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Diamondbacks29c9,231$2,708 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,523.389,72846.3%4,506 W · 5,222 L+32.8wins0.00per pick46cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea64…f2a2backed Diamondbacks22c9,118$1,982 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,136.3838751.9%201 W · 186 L-1.8wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7784…5b6dbacked Dodgers46c6,000$2,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,759.935752.6%30 W · 27 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Diamondbacks40c5,148$2,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,070.5573149.4%361 W · 370 L+23.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+2.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Dodgers76c5,060$3,824 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,823.8478445.3%355 W · 429 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-7.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xacdf…0ec4backed Dodgers60c5,030$3,018 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,018.219452.6%102 W · 92 L-10.9wins-0.06per pick58cpaid-11.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x067f…e041backed Diamondbacks40c5,000$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,999.9493240.5%377 W · 555 L+14.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+2.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Diamondbacks39c4,979$1,942 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,036.9739041%160 W · 230 L-22.2wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-13.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Dodgers60c4,553$2,716 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,715.592,47052.5%1,296 W · 1,174 L+17.7wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d3a…7b63backed Dodgers59c4,444$2,622 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,621.931,35250.8%687 W · 665 L+13.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1642…5988backed Dodgers60c3,500$2,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,10069249%339 W · 353 L-9.9wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-7.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4992…6f5cbacked Dodgers67c3,500$2,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3601361.5%8 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick64cpaid-3.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3151…0977backed Diamondbacks59c3,300$1,935 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,36515353.6%82 W · 71 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick48cpaid-2.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked Dodgers60c3,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,80026453.8%142 W · 122 L+9.5wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dbe…af34backed Dodgers59c2,500$1,475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,474.9856451.1%288 W · 276 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x081c…f010backed Dodgers69c2,491$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,726.577659.2%45 W · 31 L+4.1wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+9.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x1dbb…050cbacked Dodgers59c2,177$1,284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,284.25352.8%28 W · 25 L-3.8wins-0.07per pick60cpaid-12.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5bf6…5200backed Dodgers60c2,000$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2003148.4%15 W · 16 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick50cpaid+0.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3e08…9726backed Diamondbacks41c2,000$820 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1802955.2%16 W · 13 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+8.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked Diamondbacks21c1,884$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,488.871,45642.7%622 W · 834 L-39.7wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-24.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcdc2…8b96backed Diamondbacks41c1,561$640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$920.981136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-13.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd9e0…05f2backed Diamondbacks29c1,557$447 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,109.454,16950.2%2,093 W · 2,076 L+92.5wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x18ca…9bf2backed Diamondbacks40c1,502$601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$901.25851.7%30 W · 28 L+3.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+14.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Dodgers60c1,481$886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$886.4963152.6%332 W · 299 L-0.3wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0a77…9d74backed Dodgers59c1,271$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$749.891,40248.8%684 W · 718 L-11.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e6f…ffaabacked Dodgers60c1,210$726 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7265451.9%28 W · 26 L-1.7wins-0.03per pick55cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5be…46cebacked Diamondbacks12c1,110$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.62313%3 W · 20 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-21%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6777…2612backed Diamondbacks40c1,097$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$653.123351.5%17 W · 16 L+2.1wins+0.06per pick45cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf7c4…5919backed Diamondbacks6c1,088$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,027.981,1807.2%85 W · 1,095 L-13.6wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c85…77c6backed Diamondbacks35c1,050$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$684.192754.9%509 W · 418 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1dc8…4c1dbacked Diamondbacks29c1,020$296 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.231145.7%142 W · 169 L-9.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-5.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6a8…5009backed Diamondbacks33c1,003$334 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$668.442,27443.2%983 W · 1,291 L+43.8wins+0.02per pick41cpaid-8.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3389…62d9backed Dodgers60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6008562.4%53 W · 32 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+12.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x842c…2e53backed Dodgers60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6001838.9%7 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.03per pick42cpaid+3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9375…1dbdbacked Dodgers60c1,000$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60011257.1%64 W · 48 L-0.2wins0.00per pick57cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c4d…168cbacked Diamondbacks41c999.97$410 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$589.9883248%399 W · 433 L+20.0wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3ad…9d38backed Diamondbacks41c975.61$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$575.6117045.3%77 W · 93 L-7.4wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Dodgers73c964.04$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.9612,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf744…7392backed Dodgers68c879.9$599 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59918155.8%101 W · 80 L-11.4wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-11.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Diamondbacks23c868$203 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.781,51039%589 W · 921 L-16.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-17.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x55d8…b384backed Diamondbacks34c810.07$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$537.7757744.7%258 W · 319 L-6.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b62…6137backed Dodgers60c774.56$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$464.337238.9%28 W · 44 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-9.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5d4…a077backed Diamondbacks40c760.99$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.5950843.3%220 W · 288 L+21.8wins+0.04per pick39cpaid+11.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5bc4…f44fbacked Dodgers59c749.98$442 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$442.4930151.5%155 W · 146 L+4.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb0ed…f1bdbacked Dodgers60c719.87$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.921275%9 W · 3 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick68cpaid+6.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x29c0…efaabacked Dodgers58c716.98$417 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$417.131,21252.1%631 W · 581 L+21.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8fba…d08abacked Dodgers58c675.8$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.9653150.5%268 W · 263 L+19.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+7.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6b02…393ebacked Dodgers56c650.88$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3655341.5%22 W · 31 L-4.3wins-0.08per pick50cpaid-17.3%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1bc…9dc9backed Diamondbacks8c631.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.252931%9 W · 20 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick33cpaid+19.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x20e5…d3bcbacked Dodgers70c609.88$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.934436.4%16 W · 28 L-4.7wins-0.11per pick47cpaid-38.5%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd727…eccebacked Diamondbacks41c599.97$246 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.983,29146.2%1,521 W · 1,770 L+20.9wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ea1…56f2backed Diamondbacks40c595$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35712436.3%45 W · 79 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-8.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c5…9a0ebacked Diamondbacks7c508.47$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$470.6170841.4%293 W · 415 L+8.3wins+0.01per pick40cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xba14…b792backed Diamondbacks40c504$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.444643.3%193 W · 253 L+11.0wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Diamondbacks41c499.99$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.991,36044.3%602 W · 758 L+45.8wins+0.03per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd523…0aa4backed Diamondbacks41c487$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$287.331,29346.6%603 W · 690 L+14.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Dodgers57c473.74$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.031,09750.1%550 W · 547 L+5.9wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x87ea…f625backed Diamondbacks41c469.99$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.9933140.2%133 W · 198 L-8.7wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-6.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7292…6bd3backed Diamondbacks44c459.34$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.345945.8%27 W · 32 L0.0wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e51…9531backed Dodgers67c447.56$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3007358.9%43 W · 30 L+3.8wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x519d…37a1backed Diamondbacks4c436.88$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420.865852.1%12 W · 573 L-1.7wins0.00per pick2cpaid-45.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b4a…4e2dbacked Diamondbacks28c359.29$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$258.6910527.6%29 W · 76 L-3.6wins-0.03per pick31cpaid-7.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x480d…f219backed Diamondbacks28c357.14$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.141,25052.2%653 W · 597 L-5.0wins0.00per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3ec…e987backed Dodgers60c340$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20461346.3%284 W · 329 L+7.3wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf235…366dbacked Diamondbacks41c337.17$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.931,07846.3%499 W · 579 L+0.3wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x089d…c7c9backed Diamondbacks15c317$48 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$269.1910713.1%14 W · 93 L-3.0wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-39.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc417…3ca6backed Dodgers59c300$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17714863.5%94 W · 54 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick63cpaid+1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Diamondbacks34c294.12$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.1217136.8%63 W · 108 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick35cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x81d6…bec9backed Diamondbacks41c292.68$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.686149.2%30 W · 31 L-0.2wins0.00per pick50cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa550…3885backed Diamondbacks41c290.24$119 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.245238.5%20 W · 32 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19fe…33debacked Diamondbacks37c267.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$168.11136.4%4 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick36cpaid-10.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x20b9…9110backed Dodgers75c266.45$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20021656%121 W · 95 L-8.4wins-0.04per pick60cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe797…2b36backed Dodgers60c250$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504753.2%25 W · 22 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+10.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…95a1backed Diamondbacks41c243.9$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$143.940144.1%177 W · 224 L-17.0wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Dodgers57c241.35$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.3231547.3%149 W · 166 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-14.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b0d…ddd7backed Dodgers59c233.59$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.822864.3%18 W · 10 L+1.4wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4fec…fc7bbacked Diamondbacks7c231.82$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.821022.9%3 W · 99 L-4.1wins-0.04per pick7cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x481b…74c1backed Diamondbacks28c214.14$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.2179740.4%322 W · 475 L-19.1wins-0.02per pick43cpaid-15.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3dd4…1b50backed Diamondbacks42c214$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.122,04553.8%1,100 W · 945 L+32.7wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x49ad…3d9cbacked Diamondbacks42c210.49$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.082429.2%7 W · 17 L-3.2wins-0.13per pick43cpaid-22.3%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x434f…580bbacked Diamondbacks41c203.02$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.78250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+22%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5284…27f5backed Dodgers68c200$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13610352.4%54 W · 49 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd287…7485backed Diamondbacks41c195.12$80 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.1254352.3%284 W · 259 L+27.4wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+10.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0944…6771backed Dodgers60c183.33$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1104944.9%22 W · 27 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d74…2759backed Diamondbacks6c182.06$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$170.9223545.1%106 W · 129 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3088…ec44backed Dodgers60c175$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1054040%16 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa5dc…ec43backed Dodgers58c172.41$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10040753.6%218 W · 189 L-7.7wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2359…f72bbacked Dodgers59c171.37$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.111637.5%6 W · 10 L-2.5wins-0.16per pick53cpaid-32%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.