TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Weather · resolved market

Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 33°C on June 30?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$10,411
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$11,489

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $10,411 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 46 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Weather
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc5f5…5d54backed Yes1c2,081$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.428324.7%70 W · 213 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-22.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8fbd…a959backed Yes26c1,115$285 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.38,95226.7%2,392 W · 6,560 L+120.3wins+0.01per pick25cpaid-2.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c63…93d4backed No76c308.04$234 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.2510,35437.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L+417.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid+16.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa61f…fa82backed Yes5c200.09$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.93545.6%3 W · 51 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick5cpaid-6.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a8d…50f9backed Yes22c194.36$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.699,79944.6%4,367 W · 5,432 L+256.4wins+0.03per pick42cpaid+12.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No80c193.12$154 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.344,14254.1%2,241 W · 1,901 L-16.6wins0.00per pick55cpaid-10.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x73d2…f9b7backed No76c149.99$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361,08265.6%710 W · 372 L-15.8wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-2.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0fc1…a3bbbacked Yes28c142.85$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4087629.2%256 W · 620 L-53.7wins-0.06per pick35cpaid-17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8e7d…b30ebacked No72c139.49$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$39.491643.8%7 W · 9 L+0.9wins+0.06per pick38cpaid-6.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x802d…d59abacked Yes27c120$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.81,29841.7%541 W · 757 L+53.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x607c…8e7ebacked Yes14c107.53$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.796015%144 W · 816 L+9.2wins+0.01per pick14cpaid+4.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes23c90.06$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.069,49045.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L-278.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7328…dbffbacked Yes28c85.49$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.521,12224.4%274 W · 848 L+24.8wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+6.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x496f…fa5dbacked No72c80.69$58 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.474,51452.9%2,389 W · 2,125 L+47.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+2.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x46f1…701fbacked Yes26c79.36$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.862,87755.3%1,590 W · 1,287 L-59.3wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe01…87d3backed Yes30c72.18$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.4430332.3%98 W · 205 L-6.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-16.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x077c…8b1fbacked No77c68.52$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.6953855%296 W · 242 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e48…902dbacked No72c65$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.213351.1%68 W · 65 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick54cpaid-12.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked No74c62.93$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.362,26239.6%895 W · 1,367 L-56.8wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-10.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8edc…80d8backed No73c62.85$46 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16.971,17956.4%665 W · 514 L+19.0wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe92e…7cfcbacked Yes23c58.92$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8254335%190 W · 353 L+7.1wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x52eb…67acbacked No77c53.99$42 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.424,98849.8%2,485 W · 2,503 L-155.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8ad3…e651backed No76c52.35$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.3533351.7%172 W · 161 L-7.3wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-3.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fa…4531backed Yes28c52.05$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.3331936.1%115 W · 204 L+6.4wins+0.02per pick34cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d77…a694backed No80c49.99$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$101,16057.3%665 W · 495 L+20.1wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+2.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes22c49.23$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.846,78739.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L+256.4wins+0.04per pick35cpaid-20.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a0c…a853backed No71c42.4$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.412,24934.2%769 W · 1,480 L+11.6wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd489…7f08backed No80c41.81$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.369566.3%63 W · 32 L-9.2wins-0.10per pick76cpaid-16.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x5edc…bbadbacked No72c40$29 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.244366.1%293 W · 150 L+19.8wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x61f9…8055backed Yes27c40$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.690555.6%503 W · 402 L-1.3wins0.00per pick56cpaid-1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4149…44c4backed Yes26c39$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.215449.4%76 W · 78 L+4.5wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+9.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6424…2718backed No77c31.04$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.1442754.6%233 W · 194 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick55cpaid-0.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No72c30$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.42,01061.5%1,237 W · 773 L-1.1wins0.00per pick62cpaid-2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x15e1…1b3dbacked No69c30$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.31952.6%10 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick63cpaid-14.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe9b1…79d7backed No71c28.95$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.488973.2%651 W · 238 L+20.3wins+0.02per pick71cpaid+1.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f12…59ddbacked No72c28$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.8494066.4%624 W · 316 L+3.4wins0.00per pick66cpaid+0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa760…2c51backed No72c27.75$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.7721264.6%137 W · 75 L+14.6wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+14.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xb8b6…3b38backed No74c27.06$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0647175.6%356 W · 115 L+2.1wins0.00per pick75cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6282…aaabbacked No74c27.03$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.0342151.8%218 W · 203 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-2.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadda…684cbacked No79c24.61$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.178580%68 W · 17 L+5.4wins+0.06per pick74cpaid+6.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x1f85…7b02backed No77c21.99$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.022,06855.9%1,156 W · 912 L+44.2wins+0.02per pick54cpaid-5.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc05…9a76backed No79c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.228455.6%158 W · 126 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b59…9db6backed No72c18.53$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.191,90155.6%1,057 W · 844 L+7.7wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xea83…7393backed No72c16.09$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.511,44560.1%868 W · 577 L+5.0wins0.00per pick60cpaid-0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3d1d…9e61backed No78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.352,87064.8%1,860 W · 1,010 L-32.8wins-0.01per pick66cpaid-3.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3880…db44backed No78c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.317165.5%112 W · 59 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick67cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.