NHL · resolved market
Devils vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaae0ea4e98847bf0a66e87badee0c248a9e2e8156e19a5e7e0c17c865720ac55
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $31,638
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $31,638
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $31,638 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9e5e…fd91backed Under | 57c | 28,583$16,293 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12,290.85 | 24 | 62.5%15 W · 9 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 52cpaid | +19.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd696…8a49backed Over | 43c | 17,326$7,450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,450 | 514 | 52.3%269 W · 245 L | +17.1wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +7.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3450…6793backed Over | 43c | 7,751$3,333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,333 | 68 | 33.8%23 W · 45 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2652…2a1dbacked Over | 43c | 3,564$1,532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,532.1 | 1,679 | 54.4%914 W · 765 L | +36.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x30ef…70dfbacked Over | 43c | 1,400$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602 | 533 | 37.5%200 W · 333 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2fd1…8257backed Under | 57c | 1,048$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.64 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3505…f7a3backed Under | 56c | 893.1$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$389.96 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | -5.7wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -19.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 57c | 500$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$215 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b3a…2841backed Over | 44c | 340$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.6 | 764 | 50.4%385 W · 379 L | +7.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b20…99e9backed Over | 44c | 204.55$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90 | 1,093 | 51.8%566 W · 527 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +3.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 41c | 132.27$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.74 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc079…8881backed Over | 43c | 116.28$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 36 | 55.6%20 W · 16 L | +1.7wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +12%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x34fa…f491backed Over | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43 | 599 | 50.4%302 W · 297 L | +20.0wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1600…5a08backed Under | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41 | 127 | 35.4%45 W · 82 L | -9.0wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 55c | 86$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.7 | 61 | 50.8%31 W · 30 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70af…bcf2backed Over | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5abb…061bbacked Over | 43c | 69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.67 | 181 | 48.6%88 W · 93 L | +0.7wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a32…0086backed Under | 58c | 60.1$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.24 | 130 | 49.2%64 W · 66 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Over | 46c | 57$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.22 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x79c3…81e3backed Under | 58c | 51.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.72 | 68 | 45.6%31 W · 37 L | -5.3wins | -0.08per pick | 53cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7399…fe96backed Over | 45c | 50$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.5 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -2.7wins | -0.16per pick | 51cpaid | -27%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6919…d27bbacked Over | 42c | 49.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 134 | 53%71 W · 63 L | +6.7wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e2c…6aaebacked Over | 44c | 43.55$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.16 | 26 | 46.2%12 W · 14 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb4c6…75adbacked Under | 54c | 40$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.4 | 401 | 52.4%210 W · 191 L | +21.2wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e32…f244backed Under | 56c | 38$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.72 | 24 | 58.3%14 W · 10 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa521…4599backed Under | 57c | 37$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.91 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bd…d82dbacked Over | 45c | 36$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.2 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 50cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bd2…2b28backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 50 | 44%22 W · 28 L | -3.6wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Over | 42c | 28.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 740 | 54.5%403 W · 337 L | +22.6wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Devils vs. Islanders: O/U 6.5this page
- Devils vs. IslandersIslanders won
- Devils vs. Islanders: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Devils (-1.5)Islanders won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.