Premier League · resolved market
Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab21da520513f31640a465f475685e0520717e1f59cb0d38dfee2bd87556f4f2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Brentford FCof Arsenal FC, Brentford FC
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $24,619
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $24,702
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $24,619 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 16 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 10,608$1,516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,515.71 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x27c3…301fbacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 2,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 16 | 6.3%1 W · 15 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 16cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 1,876$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.44 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Arsenal FC | 15c | 1,500$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Arsenal FC | 15c | 1,499$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce24…6239backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 500$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | +4.8wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Arsenal FC | 9c | 435.69$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.21 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d0b…0eb7backed Arsenal FC | 13c | 382.69$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.75 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.3wins | -0.19per pick | 49cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0ccc…dbcdbacked Arsenal FC | 4c | 332.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.32 | 101 | 24.8%25 W · 76 L | -12.0wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x4fd9…b161backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 293$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.88 | 62 | 38.7%24 W · 38 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc8…f45bbacked Arsenal FC | 16c | 250$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 181 | 24.9%45 W · 136 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1420…9daabacked Arsenal FC | 14c | 226.25$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.12 | 106 | 36.8%39 W · 67 L | -7.7wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8b9d…9b0ebacked Arsenal FC | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -3.4wins | -0.10per pick | 36cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa07d…a037backed Arsenal FC | 14c | 99.72$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.29 | 515 | 16.1%83 W · 432 L | -49.9wins | -0.10per pick | 26cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2eae…a25fbacked Arsenal FC | 16c | 93.75$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 360 | 36.1%130 W · 230 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60c2…8052backed Arsenal FC | 16c | 62.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 93 | 39.8%37 W · 56 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)this page
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Brentford FC won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.