Premier League · resolved market
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x234038dff03849b38fa84f9851d7bcdb886d09d5af4c041e6fc47267fdffd7f7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $129,268
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $141,968
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $129,268 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 73 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x33a7…960dbacked Over | 22c | 44,964$9,993 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$9,992.71 | 239 | 26.4%63 W · 176 L | -10.5wins | -0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x696a…e23abacked Under | 70c | 7,152$5,006 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,145.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 30c | 5,450$1,611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,611.31 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c34…1d5bbacked Over | 8c | 5,300$424 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$423.99 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x985b…f21ebacked Over | 29c | 4,483$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,300 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e60…30eebacked Under | 72c | 2,778$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$777.78 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x678e…63febacked Over | 30c | 1,892$568 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$567.65 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xf42d…b35cbacked Over | 29c | 1,726$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500.55 | 47 | 38.3%18 W · 29 L | -2.5wins | -0.05per pick | 44cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x45d9…a89abacked Over | 24c | 1,700$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e99…e794backed Under | 71c | 1,600$1,136 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$464 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | +2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 30c | 1,500$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ca1…aea0backed Over | 30c | 1,350$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$405 | 90 | 42.2%38 W · 52 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 39cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc893…b19ebacked Under | 72c | 1,079$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$302.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c5b…0584backed Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe19a…abafbacked Under | 70c | 905$634 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.5 | 36 | 41.7%15 W · 21 L | -6.3wins | -0.18per pick | 59cpaid | -27%equal weight | 38-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 11c | 776.55$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.12 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Over | 30c | 750$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Under | 70c | 724.69$507 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.41 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46da…724ebacked Under | 72c | 625$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 62cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1110…0123backed Under | 72c | 609.86$439 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.76 | 65 | 53.8%35 W · 30 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 58cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xede1…8ad7backed Over | 9c | 530.58$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.45 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Over | 32c | 471.88$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151 | 194 | 26.3%51 W · 143 L | +3.9wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0e…2b59backed Under | 70c | 399.97$280 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$119.99 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -2.9wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -14%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed Under | 68c | 386.26$263 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$123.6 | 524 | 54.2%284 W · 240 L | +14.4wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb903…9942backed Under | 72c | 347.24$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.24 | 36 | 44.4%16 W · 20 L | -3.5wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Over | 29c | 344.82$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 277 | 48.7%135 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb1…c109backed Under | 72c | 300$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$84 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Under | 75c | 272$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68 | 137 | 60.6%83 W · 54 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…e7ebbacked Over | 29c | 271.26$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 351 | 34.8%122 W · 229 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc58b…cba8backed Over | 30c | 200$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9013…e7e0backed Over | 30c | 194.9$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.47 | 79 | 31.6%25 W · 54 L | -4.8wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x58f6…13bfbacked Over | 7c | 189.26$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Over | 10c | 180.42$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.62 | 117 | 12%14 W · 103 L | -8.1wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xff79…a52abacked Over | 30c | 166.67$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 306 | 45.8%140 W · 166 L | -11.9wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb11d…3706backed Over | 31c | 162.51$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.38 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 29c | 159.99$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.23 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa35f…b58fbacked Over | 30c | 158.49$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.55 | 234 | 35.9%84 W · 150 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf830…c2dbbacked Over | 32c | 156.25$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 51 | 47.1%24 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 30c | 150$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…8147backed Over | 15c | 145.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.46 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +2.6wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +91.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xae56…8c22backed Over | 35c | 145.65$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.53 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2583…30d5backed Under | 72c | 138.89$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.89 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 60cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 29c | 137.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed Over | 29c | 126.99$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 1,615 | 53%856 W · 759 L | +33.6wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x57e8…9a6fbacked Under | 72c | 125$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86f0…be32backed Under | 71c | 100$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29 | 36 | 69.4%25 W · 11 L | +3.3wins | +0.09per pick | 60cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 29c | 99.99$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Over | 29c | 95$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.55 | 1,212 | 41.7%505 W · 707 L | -1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5ba…960fbacked Under | 72c | 90.28$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.28 | 155 | 58.1%90 W · 65 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 60cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x313c…61d9backed Over | 15c | 88.07$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.55 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | +2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Over | 30c | 87.9$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.37 | 122 | 36.1%44 W · 78 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd01c…7f9dbacked Over | 29c | 78$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.24 | 964 | 43.7%421 W · 543 L | -10.7wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f03…dc32backed Over | 17c | 76.47$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -5.1wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Over | 20c | 70.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 194 | 41.8%81 W · 113 L | -6.7wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6474…7ab8backed Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 85 | 36.5%31 W · 54 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5d…20c8backed Over | 30c | 66.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.17per pick | 50cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc2d7…2b16backed Under | 69c | 57.59$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.85 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +3.2wins | +0.54per pick | 46cpaid | +128.2%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9154…8f2dbacked Over | 21c | 55$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.55 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0919…fcbcbacked Over | 23c | 54.21$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | +3.5wins | +0.16per pick | 43cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x41ac…2de8backed Under | 69c | 51.4$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x69ee…6e35backed Over | 29c | 51.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.01 | 298 | 55%164 W · 134 L | +9.8wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9cd…1e2bbacked Over | 30c | 50.13$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.04 | 16 | 56.3%9 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.13per pick | 43cpaid | +46.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbf07…4a12backed Over | 29c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 135 | 31.1%42 W · 93 L | -12.3wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xffe7…471dbacked Over | 30c | 50$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 250 | 57.6%144 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 58cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe477…e618backed Under | 72c | 50$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 61cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c9f…b8cebacked Under | 72c | 41$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.48 | 38 | 39.5%15 W · 23 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | +11.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0aa…13b3backed Under | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf102…1348backed Over | 28c | 36$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.08 | 541 | 28.3%153 W · 388 L | -7.4wins | -0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc87d…6f31backed Under | 69c | 35.48$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 54cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x816e…2663backed Under | 31c | 34.28$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.65 | 20 | 65%13 W · 7 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e91…ffdfbacked Under | 72c | 26.81$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.51 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 64cpaid | +15%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9930…2afcbacked Under | 70c | 16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 19 | 84.2%16 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.21per pick | 63cpaid | +41.6%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5this page
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Brentford FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Brentford FC won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.