Premier League · resolved market
Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7c4ade5e82b6ca3371d10f124a7a2d80f62cb1853400714eb85802654c80c366
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Premier Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $34,443
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,106
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $34,443 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Premier League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Premier League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x35a6…cb8fbacked Over | 15c | 2,771$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.65 | 60 | 43.3%26 W · 34 L | +5.4wins | +0.09per pick | 34cpaid | +20%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Over | 14c | 2,227$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.82 | 2,661 | 45.5%1,210 W · 1,451 L | -11.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Over | 13c | 1,500$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.01 | 850 | 48.4%411 W · 439 L | +12.5wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…3facbacked Over | 14c | 1,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 607 | 28%170 W · 437 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0775…eca8backed Over | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 174 | 28.2%49 W · 125 L | -11.3wins | -0.06per pick | 35cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8429…8e64backed Over | 9c | 791$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.19 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7236…c20dbacked Over | 15c | 666.67$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 99 | 29.3%29 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2668…2c56backed Over | 15c | 666.07$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.91 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 27cpaid | -75.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Over | 11c | 663.12$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.26 | 1,934 | 42.4%820 W · 1,114 L | -43.1wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Over | 2c | 609.85$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.18 | 4,744 | 41.8%1,983 W · 2,761 L | +28.2wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed Over | 14c | 395.98$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.4 | 1,264 | 33.7%426 W · 838 L | +13.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82c0…02fdbacked Over | 15c | 353.33$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcbec…d33bbacked Over | 15c | 269.2$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.2wins | -0.15per pick | 28cpaid | -79.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Over | 15c | 266.67$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 353 | 28.6%101 W · 252 L | -6.1wins | -0.02per pick | 30cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5a50…ea80backed Over | 15c | 194.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.23 | 122 | 36.1%44 W · 78 L | +8.4wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +29.7%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Over | 14c | 167.25$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 6,117 | 45.8%2,803 W · 3,314 L | -28.6wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf497…5ce0backed Over | 15c | 126.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 118 | 39.8%47 W · 71 L | -6.7wins | -0.06per pick | 45cpaid | -21%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd610…4c9abacked Over | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 224 | 48.7%109 W · 115 L | +6.4wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f62…76f6backed Over | 15c | 95$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.95 | 1,224 | 42.3%518 W · 706 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Premier League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 4.5this page
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to ScoreYes won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 1.5Over won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 2.5Under won
- Brentford FC vs. Arsenal FC: O/U 3.5Under won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-1.5)Brentford FC won
- Spread: Arsenal FC (-2.5)Brentford FC won
- Spread: Brentford FC (-1.5)Arsenal FC won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.