MLB · resolved market
Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab2a1c3887306584c3d8f6325de94676af05f09bbee7c5b51a5bbec816c48313
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Houston Astros, Detroit Tigers
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,573
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $33,672
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,573 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa0f2…1848backed Detroit Tigers | 50c | 15,689$7,918 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,918.41 | 820 | 42.6%349 W · 471 L | -12.6wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Houston Astros | 50c | 9,527$4,766 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,760.5 | 4,368 | 47.4%2,070 W · 2,298 L | -79.9wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 49c | 5,271$2,602 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,669.82 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Detroit Tigers | 57c | 2,544$1,447 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.01 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Detroit Tigers | 53c | 2,000$1,057 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,057.4 | 2,093 | 51.1%1,070 W · 1,023 L | +44.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Houston Astros | 47c | 1,321$623 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$698.5 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Houston Astros | 56c | 1,241$690 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.08 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Houston Astros | 49c | 900.5$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.94 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 68c | 899$611 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.68 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros | 23c | 761.93$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.94 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x48ec…8f36backed Detroit Tigers | 30c | 500$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 98 | 37.8%37 W · 61 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x32ed…f960backed Detroit Tigers | 40c | 498.04$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.22 | 6,123 | 55.4%3,390 W · 2,733 L | +346.0wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 28c | 495$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356.4 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Detroit Tigers | 32c | 395.19$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.46 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4be6…b010backed Houston Astros | 34c | 283.94$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.4 | 267 | 47.9%128 W · 139 L | -6.8wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Detroit Tigers | 66c | 283.94$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.4 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff34…694bbacked Houston Astros | 68c | 255.99$175 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.46 | 5,234 | 56.8%2,971 W · 2,263 L | +130.4wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +2.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Houston Astros | 69c | 221.49$153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.66 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x93ac…2761backed Detroit Tigers | 42c | 214.17$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.95 | 2,588 | 61.5%1,591 W · 997 L | +72.3wins | +0.03per pick | 59cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc85f…15f8backed Houston Astros | 76c | 206.11$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.73 | 75 | 57.3%43 W · 32 L | -2.8wins | -0.04per pick | 61cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Houston Astros | 69c | 205$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.55 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd73a…0f4ebacked Detroit Tigers | 49c | 200$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98 | 411 | 52.3%215 W · 196 L | -13.0wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Houston Astros | 69c | 144$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.64 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Detroit Tigers | 44c | 125$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1a01…1a3cbacked Detroit Tigers | 32c | 101.09$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.35 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | -2.1wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Houston Astros | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.99 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…087bbacked Detroit Tigers | 50c | 90.41$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.93 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2bf3…4f00backed Houston Astros | 69c | 89.45$62 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.73 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Detroit Tigers | 73c | 81.71$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.92 | 765 | 58%444 W · 321 L | -7.2wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Houston Astros | 69c | 61.59$42 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.09 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Houston Astros | 68c | 54.46$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.43 | 313 | 54.6%171 W · 142 L | +7.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 51c | 53.94$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.75 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Houston Astros | 58c | 48.75$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.54 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Houston Astros | 69c | 41$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.71 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb0f4…6fa9backed Houston Astros | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10 | 1,777 | 58.4%1,037 W · 740 L | +91.8wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2ecb…7645backed Detroit Tigers | 46c | 40$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.4 | 449 | 45.9%206 W · 243 L | -1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x066f…b576backed Houston Astros | 33c | 38$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.46 | 3,841 | 42.2%1,622 W · 2,219 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e6f…f8e8backed Detroit Tigers | 67c | 38$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.46 | 44 | 70.5%31 W · 13 L | +7.2wins | +0.16per pick | 54cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…fe2fbacked Houston Astros | 68c | 36$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.52 | 151 | 43.7%66 W · 85 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 52cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe83a…8355backed Houston Astros | 69c | 34.78$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.78 | 135 | 58.5%79 W · 56 L | +5.6wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe5b1…30b2backed Houston Astros | 69c | 32$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 267 | 51.7%138 W · 129 L | +6.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Houston Astros | 56c | 32$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Houston Astros | 50c | 29.99$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.04 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x19e5…dd71backed Houston Astros | 69c | 29.51$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.15 | 128 | 55.5%71 W · 57 L | +7.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +12.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc93d…23d5backed Houston Astros | 45c | 29.09$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.06 | 197 | 56.9%112 W · 85 L | +7.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7f04…2392backed Houston Astros | 51c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 105 | 57.1%60 W · 45 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea10…a070backed Houston Astros | 68c | 17.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.75 | 300 | 48%144 W · 156 L | -7.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.