MLB · resolved market
Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0cdf82fc84c790daaddb03d1817deb41b0868bddf44adaed122677f3506e33e8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Houston Astrosof Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,627
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,874
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,627 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 7,199$3,160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,159.97 | 8,086 | 46.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L | +29.9wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x500f…94bfbacked Houston Astros | 65c | 5,856$3,806 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,049.72 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros | 56c | 5,766$3,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565.07 | 10,846 | 51.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L | +137.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 4,213$1,906 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,906.31 | 12,247 | 46.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L | -68.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…2b51backed Detroit Tigers | 22c | 1,391$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -4.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers | 23c | 923.35$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216.7 | 4,279 | 47.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L | -83.5wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a0b…d29dbacked Houston Astros | 63c | 898.59$566 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$332.75 | 181 | 51.9%94 W · 87 L | +4.7wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x82b0…7c38backed Houston Astros | 40c | 750$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros | 44c | 704$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$395.59 | 1,865 | 52%970 W · 895 L | +50.8wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee8…9197backed Houston Astros | 62c | 514.23$319 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.41 | 223 | 50.7%113 W · 110 L | -2.8wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x228b…af4cbacked Detroit Tigers | 31c | 434.75$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.2 | 2,012 | 51.2%1,031 W · 981 L | +43.6wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Houston Astros | 45c | 311.98$139 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.49 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers | 38c | 293.78$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.1 | 11,357 | 52.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L | +209.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 271.09$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.01 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers | 33c | 233$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.52 | 5,127 | 54.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L | +232.0wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros | 42c | 208.76$88 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.46 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf66e…14b7backed Houston Astros | 48c | 206$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$106.11 | 176 | 59.7%105 W · 71 L | +12.0wins | +0.07per pick | 53cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…0796backed Houston Astros | 43c | 180.28$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$103.06 | 204 | 56.9%116 W · 88 L | +10.4wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…8559backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 170$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.9 | 158 | 48.7%77 W · 81 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x551c…fe91backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 168.42$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.35 | 1,218 | 55.6%677 W · 541 L | +94.9wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3162…087bbacked Detroit Tigers | 28c | 161.59$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.9 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.1wins | -0.18per pick | 35cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8bec…7800backed Detroit Tigers | 61c | 142.49$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.92 | 58 | 62.1%36 W · 22 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers | 38c | 140.72$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.1 | 5,786 | 43.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L | -192.2wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x349e…867bbacked Houston Astros | 43c | 139.62$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.68 | 201 | 56.2%113 W · 88 L | +8.3wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf4f8…5bf1backed Detroit Tigers | 55c | 135$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.25 | 777 | 52.1%405 W · 372 L | +36.0wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf213…a627backed Detroit Tigers | 38c | 131.58$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 689 | 42.2%291 W · 398 L | +18.7wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ca3…9613backed Houston Astros | 67c | 125.37$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.37 | 228 | 67.1%153 W · 75 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 68cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers | 37c | 123.86$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Detroit Tigers | 39c | 111.81$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.32 | 2,147 | 50.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L | +27.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc1b5…c8f8backed Detroit Tigers | 45c | 105.96$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.28 | 1,708 | 49.9%852 W · 856 L | -17.8wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb213…49e1backed Houston Astros | 51c | 105.06$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.68 | 129 | 56.6%73 W · 56 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48a4…8c2ebacked Detroit Tigers | 39c | 94.08$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.69 | 80 | 43.8%35 W · 45 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 40cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros | 61c | 92.99$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.89 | 2,800 | 49.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros | 61c | 92.33$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.01 | 6,899 | 50.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L | -7.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 88.58$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 3,457 | 51.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L | +108.1wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c97…5c66backed Houston Astros | 40c | 75$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45 | 50 | 40%20 W · 30 L | -5.8wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3cad…92f0backed Detroit Tigers | 57c | 71.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 475 | 49.7%236 W · 239 L | +17.4wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc593…ea8cbacked Houston Astros | 48c | 64.99$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.48 | 95 | 57.9%55 W · 40 L | +4.2wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Houston Astros | 53c | 47.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.16 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x39fc…e2f2backed Detroit Tigers | 51c | 46.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.72 | 3,208 | 51.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L | +146.6wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x09da…50bcbacked Houston Astros | 42c | 45.16$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.32 | 305 | 54.4%166 W · 139 L | +6.9wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers | 52c | 43.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.51 | 4,478 | 48.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L | -47.7wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5407…5bbdbacked Detroit Tigers | 25c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 778 | 36%280 W · 498 L | -17.2wins | -0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba56…140dbacked Houston Astros | 45c | 40$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.18 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd3e…5a7abacked Detroit Tigers | 55c | 38.35$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.09 | 557 | 58%323 W · 234 L | +24.4wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c3f…e6a2backed Detroit Tigers | 48c | 34.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.91 | 244 | 48.8%119 W · 125 L | -14.9wins | -0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros | 78c | 34.84$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.78 | 4,381 | 44.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L | +77.8wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27b1…6a0bbacked Detroit Tigers | 44c | 31.98$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 469 | 52.5%246 W · 223 L | -4.1wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6dfb…f1b7backed Detroit Tigers | 36c | 29.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 319 | 63%201 W · 118 L | +27.5wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe134…f6dabacked Houston Astros | 77c | 27.14$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.26 | 746 | 57.8%431 W · 315 L | -9.0wins | -0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d0…4a70backed Detroit Tigers | 43c | 27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.61 | 346 | 39.6%137 W · 209 L | -12.9wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d2a…7682backed Houston Astros | 64c | 21.92$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.82 | 69 | 55.1%38 W · 31 L | +3.5wins | +0.05per pick | 50cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros | 63c | 16$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.92 | 1,464 | 63.5%929 W · 535 L | -10.1wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…d276backed Houston Astros | 79c | 15.95$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.39 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)this page
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Detroit Tigers won
- 1st 5 Innings Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersHouston Astros won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: 1st 5 Innings O/U 4.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 11.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 12.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 13.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 7.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 8.5Over won
- Houston Astros vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 9.5Over won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-1.5)Houston Astros won
- Spread: Houston Astros (-2.5)Detroit Tigers won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Houston Astros vs. Detroit TigersNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.