TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

MLB · resolved market

Spread: Detroit Tigers (-1.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Houston Astrosof Detroit Tigers, Houston Astros
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$39,627
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$39,874

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,627 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 54 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in MLB
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Detroit Tigers44c7,199$3,160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,159.978,08646.1%3,728 W · 4,358 L+29.9wins0.00per pick46cpaid-7.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x500f…94bfbacked Houston Astros65c5,856$3,806 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,049.72850%4 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Houston Astros56c5,766$3,201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,565.0710,84651.6%5,594 W · 5,252 L+137.6wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-0.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Detroit Tigers45c4,213$1,906 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,906.3112,24746.4%5,687 W · 6,560 L-68.6wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd995…2b51backed Detroit Tigers22c1,391$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300220%0 W · 22 L-4.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x224a…a3d5backed Detroit Tigers23c923.35$217 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$216.74,27947.3%2,024 W · 2,255 L-83.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-6.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a0b…d29dbacked Houston Astros63c898.59$566 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.7518151.9%94 W · 87 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x82b0…7c38backed Houston Astros40c750$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$450875%6 W · 2 L+2.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+38.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Houston Astros44c704$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$395.591,86552%970 W · 895 L+50.8wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfee8…9197backed Houston Astros62c514.23$319 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.4122350.7%113 W · 110 L-2.8wins-0.01per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x228b…af4cbacked Detroit Tigers31c434.75$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.22,01251.2%1,031 W · 981 L+43.6wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-6.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x189e…5aaebacked Houston Astros45c311.98$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.497568%51 W · 24 L+10.6wins+0.14per pick54cpaid+25.7%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x5268…135dbacked Detroit Tigers38c293.78$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.111,35752.9%6,003 W · 5,354 L+209.9wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xebe6…9278backed Detroit Tigers38c271.09$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.012,10451.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L+11.9wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc546…058ebacked Detroit Tigers33c233$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.525,12754.7%2,805 W · 2,322 L+232.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+7.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc365…2e53backed Houston Astros42c208.76$88 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.461,60753.2%855 W · 752 L+74.2wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf66e…14b7backed Houston Astros48c206$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.1117659.7%105 W · 71 L+12.0wins+0.07per pick53cpaid+13.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x14f3…0796backed Houston Astros43c180.28$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$103.0620456.9%116 W · 88 L+10.4wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+8.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdaee…8559backed Detroit Tigers57c170$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.915848.7%77 W · 81 L0.0wins0.00per pick49cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x551c…fe91backed Detroit Tigers51c168.42$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.351,21855.6%677 W · 541 L+94.9wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+13.4%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x3162…087bbacked Detroit Tigers28c161.59$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.9616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.18per pick35cpaid-70.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8bec…7800backed Detroit Tigers61c142.49$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.925862.1%36 W · 22 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick57cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xda77…683fbacked Detroit Tigers38c140.72$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.15,78643.6%2,524 W · 3,262 L-192.2wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-19.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x349e…867bbacked Houston Astros43c139.62$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.6820156.2%113 W · 88 L+8.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4f8…5bf1backed Detroit Tigers55c135$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.2577752.1%405 W · 372 L+36.0wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf213…a627backed Detroit Tigers38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5068942.2%291 W · 398 L+18.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1ca3…9613backed Houston Astros67c125.37$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41.3722867.1%153 W · 75 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick68cpaid-0.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x84cf…2f63backed Detroit Tigers37c123.86$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.834,55349.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L-9.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a4…3a31backed Detroit Tigers39c111.81$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.322,14750.2%1,078 W · 1,069 L+27.8wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Detroit Tigers45c105.96$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.281,70849.9%852 W · 856 L-17.8wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb213…49e1backed Houston Astros51c105.06$53 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.6812956.6%73 W · 56 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48a4…8c2ebacked Detroit Tigers39c94.08$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.698043.8%35 W · 45 L+3.0wins+0.04per pick40cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa3c2…df3dbacked Houston Astros61c92.99$57 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.892,80049.3%1,381 W · 1,419 L+0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Houston Astros61c92.33$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.016,89950.4%3,478 W · 3,421 L-7.1wins0.00per pick51cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6b23…04a3backed Detroit Tigers43c88.58$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.093,45751.3%1,772 W · 1,685 L+108.1wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+1.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8c97…5c66backed Houston Astros40c75$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455040%20 W · 30 L-5.8wins-0.12per pick52cpaid-23.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3cad…92f0backed Detroit Tigers57c71.93$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4147549.7%236 W · 239 L+17.4wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+8.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc593…ea8cbacked Houston Astros48c64.99$32 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.489557.9%55 W · 40 L+4.2wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ad5…62ffbacked Houston Astros53c47.52$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.161,14731.6%362 W · 785 L-97.5wins-0.09per pick40cpaid-27.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x39fc…e2f2backed Detroit Tigers51c46.5$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.723,20851.2%1,642 W · 1,566 L+146.6wins+0.05per pick47cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x09da…50bcbacked Houston Astros42c45.16$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.3230554.4%166 W · 139 L+6.9wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdb83…1e50backed Detroit Tigers52c43.49$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.514,47848.8%2,186 W · 2,292 L-47.7wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5407…5bbdbacked Detroit Tigers25c40$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1077836%280 W · 498 L-17.2wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-5.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xba56…140dbacked Houston Astros45c40$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.18666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.14per pick52cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd3e…5a7abacked Detroit Tigers55c38.35$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.0955758%323 W · 234 L+24.4wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+6.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c3f…e6a2backed Detroit Tigers48c34.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.9124448.8%119 W · 125 L-14.9wins-0.06per pick55cpaid-17.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Houston Astros78c34.84$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.784,38144.9%1,966 W · 2,415 L+77.8wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x27b1…6a0bbacked Detroit Tigers44c31.98$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.0746952.5%246 W · 223 L-4.1wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6dfb…f1b7backed Detroit Tigers36c29.05$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.3431963%201 W · 118 L+27.5wins+0.09per pick54cpaid+8.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe134…f6dabacked Houston Astros77c27.14$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.2674657.8%431 W · 315 L-9.0wins-0.01per pick59cpaid-5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d0…4a70backed Detroit Tigers43c27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6134639.6%137 W · 209 L-12.9wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1d2a…7682backed Houston Astros64c21.92$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.826955.1%38 W · 31 L+3.5wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+8.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf766…9251backed Houston Astros63c16$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.921,46463.5%929 W · 535 L-10.1wins-0.01per pick64cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a49…d276backed Houston Astros79c15.95$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.392846.4%13 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.