NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab6c1a23bcc9980fa5e065b23700c4ad57bce5575dfedf280c8e398b70e541ba
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Buccaneers, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,263
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $4,478
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,263 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Buccaneers | 50c | 3,586$1,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,810 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Falcons | 49c | 2,373$1,170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,202.81 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfe…ed69backed Falcons | 51c | 360$184 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$176.4 | 242 | 43.4%105 W · 137 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5a93…32a0backed Falcons | 50c | 300$150 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$150 | 115 | 45.2%52 W · 63 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Falcons | 49c | 250.5$123 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.76 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x281d…814fbacked Falcons | 49c | 198.11$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$101.03 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe0db…f44ebacked Buccaneers | 45c | 114.18$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.38 | 152 | 52.6%80 W · 72 L | +4.2wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2123…8d70backed Falcons | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 117 | 40.2%47 W · 70 L | -10.0wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcd53…a861backed Falcons | 52c | 83$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.84 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +3.0wins | +0.18per pick | 47cpaid | +46.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a2…9b3fbacked Falcons | 55c | 63.64$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.64 | 36 | 75%27 W · 9 L | +6.9wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +43.1%equal weight | 63+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x8d67…cf38backed Falcons | 53c | 60$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.2 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x581b…0290backed Falcons | 53c | 55$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.25per pick | 50cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe0c7…5861backed Falcons | 55c | 54.55$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.55 | 40 | 40%16 W · 24 L | -5.1wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9d30…2645backed Falcons | 52c | 33$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.84 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f2c…ac5ebacked Falcons | 52c | 30$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.4 | 20 | 50%10 W · 10 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x19fe…dbd8backed Buccaneers | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -2.4wins | -0.48per pick | 48cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab0…8383backed Buccaneers | 48c | 27$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.96 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8204…61d9backed Buccaneers | 48c | 26$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.48 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Falcons won
- Cade Otton: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Falcons vs. BuccaneersFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-7.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.