NFL · resolved market
Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9d1cf815ab9bf2f7a3fb37f459b1dd5f4fe3009b8f30cbedc403722fc42e1312
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Overof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $116,927
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $121,151
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $116,927 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1d1a…0df6backed Under | 51c | 31,000$15,810 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15,809.98 | 168 | 60.7%102 W · 66 L | +18.7wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xcc3f…5c6fbacked Over | 48c | 21,000$10,080 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,920 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68dd…f0b2backed Over | 49c | 20,000$9,800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,200 | 160 | 51.9%83 W · 77 L | +5.2wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11e2…26ccbacked Under | 51c | 15,000$7,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,650 | 94 | 42.6%40 W · 54 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1117…3532backed Under | 52c | 14,258$7,414 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,414.16 | 312 | 40.7%127 W · 185 L | -22.0wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8f03…64d6backed Under | 51c | 11,054$5,638 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,637.63 | 249 | 57%142 W · 107 L | +12.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b88…5d08backed Over | 49c | 10,876$5,329 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,546.51 | 186 | 50%93 W · 93 L | +9.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Over | 49c | 10,000$4,900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,099.99 | 513 | 52.2%268 W · 245 L | +16.0wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +12.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7ca…a175backed Under | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 257 | 44.4%114 W · 143 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2734…6d9ebacked Over | 51c | 5,886$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,886.47 | 56 | 58.9%33 W · 23 L | +5.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 50c | 5,754$2,856 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,856.42 | 1,196 | 49.9%597 W · 599 L | +1.4wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x827a…8a2bbacked Under | 50c | 5,193$2,595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,594.67 | 155 | 55.5%86 W · 69 L | +7.2wins | +0.05per pick | 51cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x87b6…4ababacked Over | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 44 | 52.3%23 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x606f…b3b5backed Over | 49c | 4,896$2,399 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,496.71 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e1…5ad0backed Over | 50c | 4,444$2,222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,222 | 240 | 56.7%136 W · 104 L | +19.3wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaf9f…f6a3backed Over | 50c | 3,500$1,750 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,750 | 94 | 44.7%42 W · 52 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b22…c59cbacked Over | 49c | 3,500$1,715 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,785 | 49 | 49%24 W · 25 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a77…9d74backed Over | 48c | 3,462$1,662 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,800.56 | 373 | 50.9%190 W · 183 L | +12.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4db0…d3eabacked Under | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -2.1wins | -0.21per pick | 51cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 49c | 2,961$1,448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,447.78 | 865 | 47.9%414 W · 451 L | -6.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa840…f2e7backed Over | 50c | 2,700$1,350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,350 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | 0%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf9fe…366bbacked Under | 52c | 2,100$1,092 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,092 | 362 | 46.7%169 W · 193 L | -7.7wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd092…342abacked Over | 51c | 1,569$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$768.63 | 25 | 44%11 W · 14 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 54cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9267…0f9abacked Under | 50c | 1,400$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 246 | 52%128 W · 118 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14cf…0856backed Under | 53c | 1,134$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 84 | 51.2%43 W · 41 L | +1.9wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +7.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c6f…014ebacked Under | 52c | 991$515 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.32 | 62 | 33.9%21 W · 41 L | -6.4wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3e14…fb6bbacked Under | 52c | 791.02$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$411.33 | 39 | 51.3%20 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cc7…cf77backed Over | 49c | 680.27$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346.94 | 81 | 44.4%36 W · 45 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde46…a7afbacked Over | 49c | 612.24$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$312.24 | 117 | 48.7%57 W · 60 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3349…c0b8backed Over | 49c | 500$245 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 61cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 51c | 500$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255 | 650 | 48.3%314 W · 336 L | -0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b28…66f0backed Over | 49c | 455.1$223 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.1 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa313…e124backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 166 | 48.2%80 W · 86 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe3b9…9ce4backed Over | 49c | 408.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.16 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | -2.5wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cb8…76b4backed Over | 52c | 361.54$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.54 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbecd…9df4backed Under | 52c | 288.46$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 143 | 47.6%68 W · 75 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb740…2422backed Over | 49c | 244.07$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$124.48 | 162 | 43.8%71 W · 91 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f29…f03dbacked Over | 51c | 235.29$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115.29 | 137 | 52.6%72 W · 65 L | +10.9wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | +19.7%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1dbf…7776backed Over | 53c | 228.55$121 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.42 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Under | 50c | 222.58$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.29 | 69 | 34.8%24 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071e…0d11backed Over | 50c | 222.58$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.29 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +3.2wins | +0.32per pick | 38cpaid | +68.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x209e…8bb4backed Over | 50c | 222$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 64 | 53.1%34 W · 30 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa717…8919backed Under | 52c | 209$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 110 | 47.3%52 W · 58 L | -7.4wins | -0.07per pick | 54cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa8f3…e544backed Under | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 553 | 45%249 W · 304 L | -9.0wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe832…7abbbacked Over | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 42 | 57.1%24 W · 18 L | +2.5wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x12fe…38cfbacked Under | 52c | 200$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 315 | 40.6%128 W · 187 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 40cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd59a…ac62backed Over | 51c | 196.08$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.08 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 49cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84f7…ade1backed Over | 48c | 192$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$99.84 | 314 | 50%157 W · 157 L | +9.4wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7c0c…6825backed Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 105 | 37.1%39 W · 66 L | -12.5wins | -0.12per pick | 49cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x0495…c68fbacked Over | 51c | 150$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.5 | 138 | 45.7%63 W · 75 L | -3.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7555…ce17backed Under | 51c | 117.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 93 | 48.4%45 W · 48 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1b8…799cbacked Over | 48c | 100$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 22 | 63.6%14 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 51cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f3d…fadabacked Under | 51c | 80.39$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 65 | 47.7%31 W · 34 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | +23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x470e…07c0backed Under | 48c | 60$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 48cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x755a…9748backed Over | 52c | 50$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24 | 62 | 51.6%32 W · 30 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb81d…c6c0backed Under | 50c | 43$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -1.9wins | -0.14per pick | 50cpaid | -34.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1436…e23dbacked Under | 50c | 41$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.8wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +17.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5fb3…88c1backed Over | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 182 | 45.6%83 W · 99 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98cd…9417backed Under | 48c | 40$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.2 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Under | 51c | 39.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 159 | 52.2%83 W · 76 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda6e…e417backed Over | 50c | 27$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +25.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x480a…429fbacked Under | 49c | 25.51$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 53 | 50.9%27 W · 26 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9430…97cebacked Over | 50c | 25$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -39%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd5ad…5a42backed Under | 50c | 20$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 42 | 47.6%20 W · 22 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94d…2b20backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb570…25dbbacked Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f06…2614backed Over | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 48 | 60.4%29 W · 19 L | +2.8wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Falcons won
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Falcons won
- Cade Otton: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Falcons vs. BuccaneersFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-7.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.