NFL · resolved market
1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xca64659cc2a3f2c212c8cbc6382e85dace00747216b661e1a6b959be65704fc8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Falconsof Buccaneers, Falcons
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NFLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,286
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 31 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NFL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NFL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfb97…a686backed Buccaneers | 51c | 4,978$2,539 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,538.66 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x753b…3d0fbacked Falcons | 49c | 4,496$2,203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,293.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2f…3794backed Buccaneers | 44c | 2,218$969 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$969 | 81 | 28.4%23 W · 58 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a3…9489backed Falcons | 57c | 1,576$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$677.89 | 736 | 51.2%377 W · 359 L | +25.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked Falcons | 40c | 612.16$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$365.31 | 397 | 54.4%216 W · 181 L | +26.0wins | +0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1828…cca5backed Falcons | 49c | 511.4$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$260.81 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.9wins | +0.24per pick | 51cpaid | +50.3%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6911…947cbacked Buccaneers | 60c | 416.67$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 85 | 40%34 W · 51 L | -3.8wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2128…4c6dbacked Falcons | 41c | 367.8$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.6wins | +0.27per pick | 43cpaid | +66.8%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xdb7c…8eabbacked Buccaneers | 58c | 343.66$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 136 | 52.2%71 W · 65 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +9.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5834…f0cbbacked Buccaneers | 59c | 300$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 186 | 50.5%94 W · 92 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8511…4a6bbacked Falcons | 45c | 226.99$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125.85 | 67 | 52.2%35 W · 32 L | +3.3wins | +0.05per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x507e…beaebacked Falcons | 53c | 147.65$78 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.76 | 758 | 52.5%398 W · 360 L | +21.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9b29…8373backed Falcons | 44c | 132$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.82 | 128 | 42.2%54 W · 74 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9fbd…3d15backed Falcons | 43c | 106.57$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60.67 | 83 | 49.4%41 W · 42 L | +5.0wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +16.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd903…bf9dbacked Falcons | 47c | 93.32$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.21 | 154 | 46.8%72 W · 82 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f02…c594backed Buccaneers | 56c | 71.43$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7011…0710backed Buccaneers | 59c | 67.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +10%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed Buccaneers | 54c | 60$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 342 | 47.4%162 W · 180 L | -4.9wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f41…5cb3backed Falcons | 45c | 60$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +4.1wins | +0.29per pick | 49cpaid | +58.1%equal weight | 62+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Falcons | 43c | 40$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.8 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.7wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e66…921dbacked Falcons | 47c | 37$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.61 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcba…d962backed Buccaneers | 55c | 36.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 39 | 53.8%21 W · 18 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 53cpaid | +3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1f4…4763backed Buccaneers | 58c | 34.56$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0edb…8260backed Buccaneers | 59c | 33.83$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | -6.4wins | -0.14per pick | 49cpaid | -33.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46ed…cfa6backed Buccaneers | 59c | 33.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.52 | 122 | 50%61 W · 61 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Falcons | 45c | 31.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.35 | 160 | 45%72 W · 88 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -2.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6fe1…e560backed Buccaneers | 57c | 26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.82 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +2.2wins | +0.32per pick | 54cpaid | +61.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x224a…67b1backed Buccaneers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d89…87b0backed Buccaneers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0dcf…4028backed Buccaneers | 55c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 54cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x37e8…441fbacked Buccaneers | 53c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 55cpaid | -23.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NFL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 14 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)this page
- 1H Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Falcons won
- Cade Otton: Anytime TouchdownNo won
- Falcons vs. BuccaneersFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: 1H MoneylineFalcons won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: 1H O/U 21.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 43.5Over won
- Falcons vs. Buccaneers: O/U 44.5Over won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-2.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-3.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-4.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-5.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-6.5)Falcons won
- Spread: Buccaneers (-7.5)Falcons won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.