MLB · resolved market
Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabbc6f5755f56a64106eb1d45bb0f63a638906c6844c0912e0810c050c7073e7
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Tampa Bay Raysof Tampa Bay Rays, Kansas City Royals
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- MLBevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $9,813
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $9,823
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $9,813 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 43 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in MLB is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in MLB | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5268…135dbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 5,747$3,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,298.08 | 11,519 | 52.9%6,092 W · 5,427 L | +213.9wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Kansas City Royals | 41c | 3,092$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,265.05 | 8,192 | 46.2%3,787 W · 4,405 L | +38.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Kansas City Royals | 43c | 1,321$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$572.03 | 12,328 | 46.4%5,726 W · 6,602 L | -66.0wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Kansas City Royals | 37c | 767$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.3 | 4,405 | 44.9%1,978 W · 2,427 L | +80.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84cf…2f63backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 241.73$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.46 | 4,553 | 49.2%2,238 W · 2,315 L | -9.6wins | 0.00per pick | 49cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbca0…9705backed Kansas City Royals | 57c | 223.03$127 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.31 | 8,594 | 52.6%4,521 W · 4,073 L | +508.9wins | +0.06per pick | 47cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfe78…0319backed Tampa Bay Rays | 57c | 219.75$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.98 | 10,979 | 51.6%5,660 W · 5,319 L | +139.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbdd…a5debacked Tampa Bay Rays | 73c | 152$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.24 | 1,874 | 52%975 W · 899 L | +51.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5b62…d87fbacked Kansas City Royals | 60c | 141.25$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.75 | 1,845 | 50.7%936 W · 909 L | -4.4wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 120.96$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.97 | 3,460 | 51.2%1,773 W · 1,687 L | +107.5wins | +0.03per pick | 48cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc365…2e53backed Kansas City Royals | 20c | 113.97$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.1 | 1,607 | 53.2%855 W · 752 L | +74.2wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xebe6…9278backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 110.53$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.42 | 2,104 | 51.9%1,092 W · 1,012 L | +11.9wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a4…3a31backed Kansas City Royals | 14c | 107.14$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,149 | 50.2%1,079 W · 1,070 L | +28.3wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7705…a442backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 102.05$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.25 | 201 | 38.8%78 W · 123 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa697…59d5backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 97.69$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 6,999 | 50.6%3,538 W · 3,461 L | +2.7wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda77…683fbacked Kansas City Royals | 25c | 92.69$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.58 | 5,812 | 43.7%2,541 W · 3,271 L | -188.1wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0d2d…7ff5backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 90.07$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.94 | 8,403 | 47.9%4,022 W · 4,381 L | +76.9wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5821…7c51backed Kansas City Royals | 64c | 80.64$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.22 | 2,995 | 50.8%1,521 W · 1,474 L | -36.0wins | -0.01per pick | 52cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x161a…4103backed Kansas City Royals | 66c | 79$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 4,087 | 57.6%2,354 W · 1,733 L | +66.3wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x03ba…bebabacked Kansas City Royals | 50c | 63.75$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.14 | 825 | 51.6%426 W · 399 L | +3.8wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x256b…97bbbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 62.5$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.5 | 391 | 49.1%192 W · 199 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd63…a39abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 61.79$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$37.79 | 137 | 27.7%38 W · 99 L | -8.4wins | -0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -20.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x36f4…0eb2backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 61.19$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.94 | 859 | 49.1%422 W · 437 L | -3.6wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f4e…1fb8backed Kansas City Royals | 62c | 55.26$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.26 | 3,792 | 45.8%1,738 W · 2,054 L | -5.5wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2ad5…62ffbacked Kansas City Royals | 29c | 52.85$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.45 | 1,147 | 31.6%362 W · 785 L | -97.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3d…95b1backed Tampa Bay Rays | 38c | 52.63$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.63 | 286 | 39.2%112 W · 174 L | +11.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x48b9…abe2backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 50$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 348 | 43.4%151 W · 197 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +8.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfae5…f940backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 49.99$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.49 | 816 | 51.8%423 W · 393 L | -15.3wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e0…05f2backed Kansas City Royals | 45c | 41.67$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.75 | 4,187 | 50.2%2,102 W · 2,085 L | +94.3wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb155…ca84backed Kansas City Royals | 26c | 40$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 352 | 48%169 W · 183 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x189e…5aaebacked Tampa Bay Rays | 74c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.4 | 75 | 68%51 W · 24 L | +10.6wins | +0.14per pick | 54cpaid | +25.7%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4e8c…79bdbacked Kansas City Royals | 61c | 32.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 132 | 55.3%73 W · 59 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d0c…c90abacked Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 31.52$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.29 | 2,413 | 49.9%1,205 W · 1,208 L | +22.4wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc42…b12cbacked Kansas City Royals | 63c | 31.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.68 | 54 | 42.6%23 W · 31 L | -4.0wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfc62…ba48backed Tampa Bay Rays | 40c | 28.75$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.25 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.14per pick | 44cpaid | +34.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6643…0109backed Tampa Bay Rays | 39c | 27.16$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.57 | 254 | 40.6%103 W · 151 L | -8.9wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5df5…c44cbacked Tampa Bay Rays | 60c | 26.1$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.33 | 1,269 | 47.4%602 W · 667 L | -31.0wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -13.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…8f86backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 19.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 59 | 61%36 W · 23 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 62cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3563…a0a2backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 19.39$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 2,223 | 55.4%1,231 W · 992 L | +73.9wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9dff…7fecbacked Kansas City Royals | 68c | 19.08$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.91 | 95 | 43.2%41 W · 54 L | -6.9wins | -0.07per pick | 50cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1df6…cba0backed Tampa Bay Rays | 78c | 17.32$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.81 | 1,445 | 50.3%727 W · 718 L | -27.6wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf766…9251backed Kansas City Royals | 61c | 17$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.37 | 1,481 | 63.5%940 W · 541 L | -10.3wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2160…4c78backed Kansas City Royals | 63c | 16.41$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.34 | 80 | 56.3%45 W · 35 L | +3.0wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in MLB and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-1.5)this page
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysTampa Bay Rays won
- Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays: O/U 7.5Over won
- Will there be a run scored in the first inning?: Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay RaysNo won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.