Champions League · resolved market
Will the match between Juventus and Manchester City end in a draw?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xabc64983b4dd02c605a254d342372ec16b4cb535975d9e325f3693b1328677ff
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Champions Leagueevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $7,624
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,729
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,624 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 29 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Champions League is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Champions League | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0269…cb2dbacked No | 72c | 1,829$1,317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$512.05 | 170 | 53.5%91 W · 79 L | +7.7wins | +0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f85…d745backed Yes | 28c | 1,429$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +24.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x20cc…ebc0backed No | 68c | 1,347$911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$436.11 | 54 | 63%34 W · 20 L | +3.3wins | +0.06per pick | 57cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd9fe…ad85backed Yes | 32c | 790.42$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250 | 83 | 45.8%38 W · 45 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d52…94c4backed No | 72c | 774.6$555 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$219.2 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.6%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9e5c…d8e6backed Yes | 22c | 529.77$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.48 | 398 | 42.2%168 W · 230 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac43…4925backed Yes | 33c | 500$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 117 | 35.9%42 W · 75 L | -6.3wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x578d…fbb3backed No | 75c | 500$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$125 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | -4.2wins | -0.18per pick | 55cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0661…a72ebacked No | 75c | 477.67$357 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.67 | 15 | 80%12 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 73cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99c2…ef35backed No | 68c | 331.88$224 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$107.4 | 74 | 60.8%45 W · 29 L | +6.5wins | +0.09per pick | 52cpaid | +37.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7432…794bbacked Yes | 32c | 300$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd8e…f023backed Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 77 | 37.7%29 W · 48 L | -8.6wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a9a…dcbebacked Yes | 28c | 214.29$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 24 | 20.8%5 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe622…d61fbacked Yes | 33c | 183.96$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8744…8f31backed Yes | 35c | 168.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +117.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16cb…2704backed Yes | 25c | 155.67$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.92 | 380 | 48.7%185 W · 195 L | +10.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe27b…858fbacked No | 74c | 148.45$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.65 | 168 | 36.3%61 W · 107 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe291…234dbacked Yes | 28c | 104.82$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c87…70d5backed Yes | 28c | 104$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.12 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | -10.9wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9a7b…7bc3backed Yes | 29c | 103.45$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.25per pick | 42cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x397f…c0edbacked Yes | 32c | 103.13$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.16per pick | 38cpaid | +44.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd69a…81eabacked Yes | 28c | 52.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.83 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xba49…a4a1backed Yes | 29c | 51.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b04…b373backed Yes | 28c | 47.25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.23 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +82.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6c…b6d7backed No | 69c | 44$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.64 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -2.4wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x33dc…375abacked Yes | 29c | 40$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.6 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +41%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…5e8fbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 176 | 58.5%103 W · 73 L | +10.3wins | +0.06per pick | 53cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7eee…b4b2backed No | 68c | 30$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 48 | 66.7%32 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 66cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06be…8a46backed No | 74c | 15$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.9 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Champions League and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the match between Juventus and Manchester City end in a draw?this page
- Will Juventus beat Manchester City?Yes won
- Will Manchester City beat Juventus?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.