TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin vs. FC St. Pauli 1910 end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$44,102
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$48,032

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $44,102 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 105 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x4133…5e70backed No54c17,917$9,700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,699.9175142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaf78…7736backed Yes48c8,535$4,126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,408.92450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2117…5c26backed Yes30c2,800$840 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,9603345.5%15 W · 18 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-10.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No20c2,635$526 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.442,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe726…4c87backed Yes31c2,245$696 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,549.091717.6%3 W · 14 L-1.3wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-31.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes33c2,152$709 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,442.933,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5954…7d41backed No70c1,821$1,274 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,274.431450%7 W · 7 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+22.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c80…93b5backed Yes30c1,667$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,166.675538.2%21 W · 34 L-5.3wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-19.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbed9…bbd3backed No59c1,404$833 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$832.681566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed No47c1,373$643 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$642.6211356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x284d…59f7backed No69c1,238$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$854.22825%2 W · 6 L-2.2wins-0.27per pick52cpaid-64.7%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes49c1,198$584 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$614.2648141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d2a…9ee3backed No70c1,028$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$719.6540%2 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.15per pick55cpaid-24.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes30c948.91$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$664.27935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes76c632.84$481 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$151.411,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes73c444$324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.881735.3%6 W · 11 L-3.8wins-0.23per pick58cpaid-44.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xa509…ae46backed No40c441.59$176 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$176.0839857.5%229 W · 169 L+20.0wins+0.05per pick53cpaid-2.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xc85f…15f8backed Yes60c400$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1603873.7%28 W · 10 L+5.4wins+0.14per pick60cpaid+30%equal weight59+0.09 edge/pick
0x7106…1caabacked Yes55c363.73$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.734030%12 W · 28 L-3.2wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-35.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Yes58c333.97$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.1213139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes60c332.57$199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.3349647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3fc…5176backed No70c330$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2312948.3%14 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick45cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86be…4490backed Yes31c322.58$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.583941%16 W · 23 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick42cpaid+9.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd37a…2358backed No70c317.63$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.0462452.6%328 W · 296 L-9.9wins-0.02per pick54cpaid-4.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2779…239abacked Yes79c279.99$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581225%3 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick25cpaid-49.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes62c253$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.5948146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x82de…1337backed Yes34c233.03$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.7111148.6%54 W · 57 L-5.4wins-0.05per pick54cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Yes34c233.03$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.716952.2%36 W · 33 L+0.2wins0.00per pick52cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Yes34c210.26$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$138.777450%37 W · 37 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Yes34c209.57$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.1317749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed Yes30c203.89$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.7222047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2652…2a1dbacked Yes67c195.76$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.6578248.8%382 W · 400 L-28.1wins-0.04per pick52cpaid-12.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6c…e09cbacked Yes34c194.63$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$128.4511049.1%54 W · 56 L-4.4wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes60c190.98$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.9163645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Yes69c189.22$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.2248658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x972b…78babacked No69c164.68$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.6356951.8%295 W · 274 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5d73…9d35backed Yes72c160$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.23852.6%20 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+17.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab56…f98fbacked Yes32c156.25$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.251656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+19.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b90…30b6backed Yes65c153.01$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.015250%26 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+11.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3458…b5a7backed Yes73c136.99$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.99683.3%5 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick69cpaid+17.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xcf73…0215backed No70c127.5$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.2533047.3%156 W · 174 L+3.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf08b…7e76backed Yes73c123.2$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.26100%6 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+73.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x5471…a236backed No50c117$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.081233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.8wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-52.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xbaa2…1973backed Yes32c115.63$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.635032%16 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.06per pick38cpaid-30.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe867…0905backed No44c113.64$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504030%12 W · 28 L-4.7wins-0.12per pick42cpaid-33.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xda35…b894backed No30c112.71$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.153461.8%21 W · 13 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick52cpaid+14%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b80…8b39backed Yes49c102.04$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.041442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+4.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0547…fb35backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$695076%38 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick74cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9aaf…8298backed No69c100$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6921450%107 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ba…4028backed Yes30c100$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7038845.6%177 W · 211 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+1.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x91f0…c57abacked No70c100$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.76457.8%37 W · 27 L-1.4wins-0.02per pick60cpaid-5.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7580…1bf2backed Yes31c97.19$30 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.193873.7%28 W · 10 L+6.2wins+0.16per pick57cpaid+33.6%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf39a…fe47backed No69c96.67$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.4727554.9%151 W · 124 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid-4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No16c90.94$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4924541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes30c82.23$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$57.769851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6592…b6d7backed Yes32c81.13$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.17666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.7wins+0.28per pick39cpaid+101.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2ee7…4c1abacked No13c80.1$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.413961.5%24 W · 15 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+27.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0c99…0c88backed Yes65c80.02$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.3720645.6%94 W · 112 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed Yes48c78.96$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$40.7676234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3fcb…f5ebbacked Yes32c78.13$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.136940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-0.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd851…4616backed Yes31c75.75$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.521118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-39.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd5f2…2512backed Yes30c68.43$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.92552%13 W · 12 L+0.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d6a…8addbacked No68c67.19$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.6942046.4%195 W · 225 L-10.1wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8405…2163backed Yes32c67.19$22 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.6918140.3%73 W · 108 L-0.4wins0.00per pick41cpaid+1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x981b…b8eabacked Yes31c64.52$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.528846.6%41 W · 47 L+4.0wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+2.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4dd6…e33abacked Yes71c61.97$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.97922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick37cpaid-64.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed Yes30c61.16$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.813036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x121f…4765backed Yes48c56.26$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.18633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0866…a1d5backed No40c54.5$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.83441.2%14 W · 20 L-4.7wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4512…5d41backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$356443.8%28 W · 36 L+7.1wins+0.11per pick33cpaid+44.2%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x51e5…da69backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.510258.8%60 W · 42 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick55cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a05…8573backed Yes30c50$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351947.4%9 W · 10 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+11.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xddd7…1596backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.525855.4%143 W · 115 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a24…3845backed No69c50$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.511563.5%73 W · 42 L+4.6wins+0.04per pick59cpaid+9.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x1e76…47fabacked No69c49.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.759564.2%61 W · 34 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick64cpaid-1.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed No68c49.62$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.746860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xffff…4413backed No47c47.46$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.3812141.3%50 W · 71 L-5.4wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cd1…041bbacked Yes71c43.54$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.54333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-53.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81b0…5159backed Yes30c41.67$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.172240.9%9 W · 13 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick36cpaid+32.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57a6…44edbacked No70c41.17$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.827755.8%43 W · 34 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+15.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xda1c…197dbacked No52c38.42$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.981040%4 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick50cpaid-23%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa399…b304backed Yes64c37.97$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.75757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick47cpaid-10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2944…031abacked Yes30c36.67$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.67540%2 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick27cpaid+40.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccb3…2eadbacked Yes68c36.31$25 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.561050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-11.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4be6…b010backed Yes46c34.78$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.782748.1%13 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick46cpaid+16.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb196…33d5backed No70c34.26$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.9810262.7%64 W · 38 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick60cpaid+3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd454…b47fbacked Yes30c34$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.81233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-18.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes55c31.67$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.1655058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2b53…7e9bbacked Yes32c31.25$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.68per pick32cpaid+212.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb6d2…d67bbacked No55c30.09$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.558347%39 W · 44 L-7.2wins-0.09per pick56cpaid-26%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xb651…4a7cbacked No69c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.71764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e9f…b23bbacked No70c30$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217361.6%45 W · 28 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick63cpaid-1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec3…34a7backed Yes70c29.2$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.765648.2%27 W · 29 L-2.5wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd0dc…ffadbacked No70c28.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.296056.7%34 W · 26 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid+1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f8f…ae52backed Yes60c28.33$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.334100%4 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+45.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0e41…b875backed Yes60c27.28$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.915246.2%24 W · 28 L-3.9wins-0.08per pick54cpaid-14%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x9158…ba55backed No70c25$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.512165.3%79 W · 42 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick63cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfce1…4f4cbacked Yes57c21.94$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9.524971.4%35 W · 14 L+7.3wins+0.15per pick57cpaid+43.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xf215…ab4dbacked Yes69c20.27$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x099f…c1e1backed Yes57c20.01$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8.6817456.9%99 W · 75 L+6.4wins+0.04per pick53cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.