TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will 1. FC Union Berlin win on 2026-04-05?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,108,948
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,113,261

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,108,948 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 444 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2e35…1fe1backed No55c537,026$293,757 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243,268.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+82.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xea2b…1fc6backed Yes45c152,000$68,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68,4006251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick52cpaid+15.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Yes45c119,527$54,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54,213.571,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd29…77aebacked Yes45c74,339$33,276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33,275.546358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Yes46c61,886$28,193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28,192.57443.2%32 W · 42 L-9.2wins-0.12per pick56cpaid-21.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd577…2bb7backed No54c60,356$32,592 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,763.72742.9%3 W · 4 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick62cpaid-25.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4408…1b6abacked No53c42,500$22,525 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,9753743.2%16 W · 21 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes46c41,377$18,848 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18,847.851,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6185…2965backed No57c36,038$20,680 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,357.91338.5%5 W · 8 L-2.7wins-0.21per pick59cpaid-33%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Yes38c29,729$11,403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,402.8875142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Yes45c26,667$12,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12,0006465.6%42 W · 22 L+8.0wins+0.13per pick53cpaid+22.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc95b…f819backed Yes47c24,176$11,362 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,362.351361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.13per pick48cpaid+27.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed No53c21,141$11,205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,936.253548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde06…f5bdbacked Yes47c20,174$9,482 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,481.740%0 W · 4 L-1.7wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xffd7…1725backed Yes0c19,920$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.9210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe0a2…40d5backed Yes47c19,241$9,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,0002343.5%10 W · 13 L-1.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-12.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xefc8…d749backed No53c19,015$10,078 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,937.031100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x183d…1270backed Yes48c18,640$8,878 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,878.1530%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5318…1118backed Yes44c16,609$7,390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,39010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadfa…324ebacked Yes46c13,000$5,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,9804540%18 W · 27 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick49cpaid-17.7%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x0a24…4a1fbacked No55c12,091$6,650 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,440.93955.6%5 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick52cpaid-2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Yes43c11,788$5,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,021.723,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1350…0841backed No55c11,400$6,270 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,129.991566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.9wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+36.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked Yes47c10,685$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,0004647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked No55c10,000$5,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,499.9716647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Yes42c9,237$3,838 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,837.9428241.5%117 W · 165 L-7.9wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-16.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x19e7…1227backed Yes45c9,201$4,140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,140.4520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa022…27cfbacked No54c8,920$4,817 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,103.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+85.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d82…3847backed No54c8,000$4,299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,701.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Yes47c7,887$3,707 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,70770%0 W · 7 L-3.4wins-0.49per pick49cpaid-100%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No61c7,392$4,505 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,887.332,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Yes28c7,143$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0003324.2%8 W · 25 L-3.3wins-0.10per pick34cpaid-34.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x6e70…f06fbacked Yes47c7,056$3,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,30060%0 W · 6 L-3.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x1b47…d814backed No55c6,882$3,767 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,114.516755.2%37 W · 30 L+4.1wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+12.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8310…8967backed Yes47c6,800$3,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,213.99862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.0wins+0.13per pick50cpaid+28.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x306e…3a7cbacked Yes44c6,300$2,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,771.88742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Yes45c5,483$2,468 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,468.1329855.4%165 W · 133 L+11.2wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+7.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e59…beeebacked Yes46c5,167$2,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,400.32425%1 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.33per pick58cpaid-59.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd0ed…459dbacked Yes18c5,140$924 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$924.1840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Yes45c5,110$2,316 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,315.5716652.4%87 W · 79 L+2.5wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa624…eb73backed No55c5,084$2,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,287.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee19…555ebacked No54c5,000$2,700 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,3005541.8%23 W · 32 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes45c4,920$2,214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,21434547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Yes47c4,857$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,26614157.4%81 W · 60 L+8.4wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+13.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Yes45c4,382$1,967 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,966.6748141.8%201 W · 280 L-5.3wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-12.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x40d5…79a5backed Yes17c4,359$750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$750425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-51.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c84…a8edbacked Yes47c4,255$2,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0004949%24 W · 25 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x30a4…8441backed Yes45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8002962.1%18 W · 11 L+3.8wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Yes45c4,000$1,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,799.996058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec54…e8c1backed Yes46c3,755$1,727 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,727.42333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.15per pick49cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d39…c732backed Yes46c3,691$1,698 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,697.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4815…8ba4backed Yes22c3,182$700 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$700742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcfe…44b5backed Yes46c2,777$1,277 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,277.424351.2%22 W · 21 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-7.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…6505backed No56c2,502$1,389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,113.1622047.3%104 W · 116 L+4.7wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+2.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfe02…1204backed No56c2,321$1,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,021.431668.8%11 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.22per pick47cpaid+30.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb8c8…d8a4backed No55c2,184$1,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$984.112263.6%14 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.07per pick56cpaid+2.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes45c2,178$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c6c…4f80backed Yes48c2,083$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0002454.2%13 W · 11 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+15.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b49…0397backed No55c2,000$1,100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9005168.6%35 W · 16 L+3.8wins+0.07per pick61cpaid+11.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xeca9…f74dbacked No55c1,636$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$736.36771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+25%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked No80c1,538$1,230 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.5448658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes46c1,500$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6908143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Yes29c1,347$391 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.9511356.6%64 W · 49 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick54cpaid-11.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa85b…eb0ebacked Yes45c1,330$605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$605.085940.7%24 W · 35 L-4.9wins-0.08per pick49cpaid-13.4%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf142…57e7backed No55c1,200$656 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54423046.5%107 W · 123 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x72d7…1b97backed Yes29c1,188$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3508932.6%29 W · 60 L+4.0wins+0.05per pick28cpaid+2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9cb4…8285backed Yes45c1,158$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.6855058.7%323 W · 227 L+23.5wins+0.04per pick54cpaid+4.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x587b…2622backed Yes28c1,100$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.4919458.2%113 W · 81 L+9.8wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+28%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x7335…dd65backed Yes46c1,093$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.981266.7%8 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick62cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Yes46c1,092$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.9717749.7%88 W · 89 L-10.4wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-18.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x7fcc…e083backed Yes46c1,080$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.792835.7%10 W · 18 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick38cpaid+4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf7eb…615bbacked Yes47c1,064$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick42cpaid+1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f0b…027fbacked Yes43c1,024$440 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$440.43333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-42.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x89db…556bbacked Yes1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x42a6…cb72backed Yes43c1,000$430 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$430250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-31.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes21c1,000$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed No53c1,000$530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47016343.6%71 W · 92 L-3.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-7.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7cca…08a9backed Yes16c999.98$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1602152.4%11 W · 10 L+1.3wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+63.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8a92…6941backed Yes24c976.26$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.175455.6%30 W · 24 L+9.6wins+0.18per pick38cpaid+50.8%equal weight64+0.12 edge/pick
0xe196…0ab5backed Yes45c948.91$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$428.237935.4%28 W · 51 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b5a…87efbacked Yes44c940.91$414 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4141741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick47cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4650…f3f0backed Yes31c931$289 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.611233.3%4 W · 8 L-2.1wins-0.18per pick51cpaid-8.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x58f4…764ebacked Yes26c877.81$228 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.644643.5%20 W · 26 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick39cpaid+16.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed No54c852$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$391.92944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No71c830.31$588 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$242.7849143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec56…1259backed No54c810.13$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.66944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.08per pick36cpaid-0.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Yes46c792$364 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.3215747.1%74 W · 83 L+0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8519…f4e1backed Yes28c775$216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.51338.5%5 W · 8 L+0.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-4.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x033a…fc42backed Yes44c749.23$333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$332.992050%10 W · 10 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x882a…cde2backed No56c747.02$415 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$332.313036.7%11 W · 19 L-0.1wins0.00per pick37cpaid-1.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0b…c5ffbacked Yes27c740.74$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200850%4 W · 4 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0a21…50d3backed Yes46c736.96$339 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3393953.8%21 W · 18 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick52cpaid-8.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9d94…017dbacked No51c719.08$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.4714315.4%22 W · 121 L-8.0wins-0.06per pick21cpaid-31.7%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x835c…8e3bbacked No54c701.09$379 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.51844.4%8 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-17.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x121f…4765backed Yes26c700$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick35cpaid-17.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0828…5cfebacked No54c688.98$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$316.93771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.23per pick49cpaid+56.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x16b2…aa5abacked No72c663$479 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.6111762.4%73 W · 44 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick57cpaid+8.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x069b…e8afbacked Yes46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-25.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6ace…95a9backed Yes46c652.17$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$300560%3 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-17%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed No64c625.65$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.846860.3%41 W · 27 L+2.1wins+0.03per pick57cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.