NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac17f6826b946e74e221b583a5f576589ab4f574d4eb27b7b3163ce066d9b075
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $5,226
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $5,240
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,226 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 19 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Over | 41c | 2,863$1,181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,181.36 | 588 | 41.8%246 W · 342 L | -20.6wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Under | 59c | 2,054$1,206 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$847.54 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Under | 59c | 1,538$900 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$638.26 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 42c | 679.43$285 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.36 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 41c | 140.85$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.75 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5680…9305backed Under | 59c | 127.12$75 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.12 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 55cpaid | -54.3%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Over | 43c | 123.16$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.67 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Over | 52c | 96.03$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c86…1ed3backed Over | 42c | 91.57$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.46 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 49cpaid | +13.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 80c | 86.81$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Under | 44c | 75$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 43c | 67$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.47 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Over | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb379…0ff3backed Under | 56c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.25 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Over | 48c | 30$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 58c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.6 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Over | 42c | 24$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.14 | 225 | 16.4%37 W · 188 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -21.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6db2…01a8backed Under | 59c | 23.73$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.73 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 56cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a72…33eebacked Under | 57c | 20$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.6 | 1,345 | 54.8%737 W · 608 L | +21.0wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5this page
- Panthers vs. Golden KnightsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.