TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NHL · resolved market

Panthers vs. Golden Knights

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Panthersof Panthers, Golden Knights
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$631,008
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$636,567

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $631,008 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 388 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NHL
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xed88…f3c4backed Panthers45c280,275$126,124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154,151.129340.9%38 W · 55 L-2.8wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-7.5%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x821d…0a01backed Golden Knights55c114,851$63,168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63,168.0321652.3%113 W · 103 L+12.8wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+11.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xaa07…2125backed Golden Knights55c92,265$50,746 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,745.631,07049.9%534 W · 536 L+22.6wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x16b2…a881backed Panthers45c77,889$35,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,838.8788151.2%451 W · 430 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf152…64aabacked Golden Knights55c24,242$13,333 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,333.116656.6%94 W · 72 L+2.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83b9…6124backed Golden Knights55c21,588$11,874 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,874.1230848.4%149 W · 159 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-5.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ade…f5b0backed Golden Knights55c20,774$11,426 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,425.78657%49 W · 37 L+8.5wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+23.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x8058…d023backed Golden Knights55c17,158$9,437 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,437.13855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.3wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+13.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04b9…cdaabacked Golden Knights54c15,000$8,100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,099.9710356.3%58 W · 45 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick52cpaid+12.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Golden Knights55c12,948$7,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,067.046737.3%25 W · 42 L-9.5wins-0.14per pick51cpaid-27.1%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdc5b…5b15backed Panthers43c12,623$5,428 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,194.923655.6%20 W · 16 L+2.4wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+11.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Golden Knights54c11,111$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,999.9421850.9%111 W · 107 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2129…4222backed Panthers50c11,051$5,502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,548.6140550.9%206 W · 199 L+8.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6ee…697bbacked Golden Knights55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5003759.5%22 W · 15 L+3.2wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+21.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6ce2…e868backed Golden Knights55c10,000$5,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,5006055%33 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick55cpaid+2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4991…5ecdbacked Golden Knights22c10,000$2,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,240.29742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x74d3…0332backed Panthers46c9,000$4,140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,86019451.5%100 W · 94 L+6.6wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a89…2f26backed Panthers45c8,995$4,048 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,947.2570547.7%336 W · 369 L-26.9wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-7.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1337…ad91backed Golden Knights57c8,737$4,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,98010%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf9aa…94f3backed Golden Knights57c8,380$4,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,776.710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf66e…f2bcbacked Panthers43c8,371$3,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,771.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+132.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x23bf…429abacked Panthers43c8,000$3,440 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,560580%4 W · 1 L+1.4wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+64.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd743…11eabacked Golden Knights57c8,000$4,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,56030%0 W · 3 L-1.7wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x43fd…99a7backed Golden Knights55c7,273$4,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,000.153647.2%17 W · 19 L-1.4wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e04…564dbacked Panthers45c6,651$2,993 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,658.251,89152.4%991 W · 900 L+36.3wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4607…7811backed Golden Knights1c6,100$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$611040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x900c…1d7abacked Golden Knights55c6,042$3,325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,325.3241246.4%191 W · 221 L-24.5wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-12.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x3c82…e0cbbacked Golden Knights19c5,804$1,109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,108.954936.7%18 W · 31 L-1.9wins-0.04per pick41cpaid-25%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x84f7…ade1backed Golden Knights55c5,611$3,086 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,086.051,02448.4%496 W · 528 L+1.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Panthers79c5,308$4,199 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,108.712,11242.9%907 W · 1,205 L-10.1wins0.00per pick43cpaid-9.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x057a…3bacbacked Golden Knights19c5,151$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$980.2827143.5%118 W · 153 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick43cpaid-7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Golden Knights55c5,000$2,750 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,75089547%421 W · 474 L-18.0wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Golden Knights33c5,000$1,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6501729.4%5 W · 12 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick27cpaid-4.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed Panthers45c4,352$1,958 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,393.6387447%411 W · 463 L+3.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe948…ff23backed Panthers46c4,348$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,347.8329651.7%153 W · 143 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+3.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad6a…9dbdbacked Golden Knights55c4,182$2,300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,3005259.6%31 W · 21 L+5.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+23.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4231…f63ebacked Golden Knights55c4,035$2,224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,223.637847.4%179 W · 199 L-5.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-1.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a72…33eebacked Panthers73c3,602$2,628 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$973.991,34554.8%737 W · 608 L+21.0wins+0.02per pick53cpaid-1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf9ea…380dbacked Golden Knights55c3,591$1,975 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,9753636.1%13 W · 23 L-5.8wins-0.16per pick52cpaid-28.5%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x57a8…6933backed Golden Knights55c3,429$1,886 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,885.9538844.6%173 W · 215 L-17.1wins-0.04per pick49cpaid-8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcf92…4bfdbacked Golden Knights55c3,370$1,854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,853.56341.3%26 W · 37 L-4.3wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x50dd…c186backed Golden Knights55c3,222$1,772 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,772.172955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+20.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8f7a…db40backed Golden Knights55c3,200$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,76011946.2%55 W · 64 L-4.3wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xff3c…09ebbacked Golden Knights55c3,200$1,760 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,7601346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick52cpaid-10.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x22ed…002bbacked Golden Knights55c3,160$1,738 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,737.994546.7%21 W · 24 L-2.3wins-0.05per pick52cpaid-8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xb8c4…7385backed Panthers46c3,105$1,419 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,685.7623642.8%101 W · 135 L-4.8wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-4.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca3f…8078backed Golden Knights56c3,084$1,728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,728.562249.4%307 W · 315 L-4.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-0.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7780…f218backed Panthers45c3,000$1,350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,6501822.2%4 W · 14 L-4.6wins-0.26per pick48cpaid-53.3%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0xe9b1…2c46backed Golden Knights56c3,000$1,680 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,6801942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.9wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-23.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Golden Knights57c3,000$1,710 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,709.9630552.5%160 W · 145 L+6.2wins+0.02per pick50cpaid+3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6239…c24fbacked Golden Knights56c2,693$1,508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,508.0769550.1%348 W · 347 L-4.2wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Panthers45c2,410$1,084 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,325.362,89451.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L+58.0wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+4.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa315…cabbbacked Golden Knights55c2,230$1,227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,226.532251.9%167 W · 155 L+4.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Golden Knights25c2,199$542 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$541.761,30152.6%684 W · 617 L+23.7wins+0.02per pick51cpaid-6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb52d…95ffbacked Golden Knights57c2,102$1,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,2005141.2%21 W · 30 L-7.0wins-0.14per pick55cpaid-26.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xd589…27c2backed Panthers44c2,000$880 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,12042847.2%202 W · 226 L+5.8wins+0.01per pick46cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dd8…eb7bbacked Panthers45c2,000$900 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,1001855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.6wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+18.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d52…834ebacked Golden Knights55c1,940$1,067 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0672955.2%16 W · 13 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+18.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2219…a5e9backed Golden Knights7c1,924$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$131.18425%1 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick9cpaid+115.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe648…b79abacked Golden Knights55c1,882$1,035 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0355855.2%32 W · 26 L+3.0wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+9.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5adf…a5e7backed Panthers42c1,853$778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,074.6263249.5%313 W · 319 L+2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid+1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9731…9b35backed Panthers44c1,726$759 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.5493953.6%503 W · 436 L+29.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ec…6933backed Golden Knights55c1,500$825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$824.981752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x56f6…9f57backed Golden Knights32c1,360$432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$432.3833848.8%165 W · 173 L+5.5wins+0.02per pick47cpaid-3.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6f4…0566backed Panthers77c1,331$1,025 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.9995049.1%466 W · 484 L+12.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-10.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1161…ed62backed Golden Knights39c1,324$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.96443.8%28 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick51cpaid-22.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x0752…afadbacked Golden Knights57c1,150$656 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$655.5944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-0.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4132…a5a5backed Golden Knights15c1,100$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17011051.8%57 W · 53 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-11%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf327…34dbbacked Panthers46c1,087$500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$586.963125.8%8 W · 23 L-7.8wins-0.25per pick51cpaid-49.7%equal weight34-0.14 edge/pick
0x5375…aeeabacked Golden Knights55c1,024$563 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$563.258841.8%246 W · 342 L-20.6wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed Golden Knights54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54054349.5%269 W · 274 L+2.4wins0.00per pick49cpaid+2.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x977a…f2cabacked Golden Knights1c1,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,1632.3%27 W · 1,136 L-10.7wins-0.01per pick3cpaid-87.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1520…378fbacked Golden Knights56c1,000$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5603441.2%14 W · 20 L-3.2wins-0.09per pick51cpaid-22.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbe5f…d795backed Golden Knights54c1,000$540 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54014945%67 W · 82 L-8.5wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xcb15…006cbacked Golden Knights57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57020%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.59per pick59cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x15bc…5023backed Golden Knights57c1,000$570 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$570650%3 W · 3 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-4.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6884…6ccfbacked Golden Knights11c1,000$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.146262.9%39 W · 23 L+7.2wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+26.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xb123…0a15backed Golden Knights55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5506443.8%28 W · 36 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick49cpaid-15%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5b86…0669backed Golden Knights55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501546.7%7 W · 8 L-1.3wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-20.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x88f9…325dbacked Golden Knights55c997.07$548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$548.394055%22 W · 18 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+13%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa9d1…4660backed Golden Knights10c973.1$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.5229412.9%38 W · 256 L+5.3wins+0.02per pick11cpaid+45.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Golden Knights54c971.94$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.851,23053.7%661 W · 569 L-9.1wins-0.01per pick54cpaid-2.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ed0…b051backed Golden Knights10c851.43$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.84443.2%19 W · 25 L-3.2wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-27.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x1c3a…9ec0backed Golden Knights17c842.17$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe997…1922backed Golden Knights14c834.43$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1136942%29 W · 40 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick39cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5139…a8dbbacked Golden Knights55c830.29$457 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$456.6657453.8%309 W · 265 L+12.6wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+5.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ff2…49febacked Panthers46c802.11$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.146063.3%38 W · 22 L+7.1wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+24.6%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7d71…3b2cbacked Panthers43c800$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4561060%6 W · 4 L+1.6wins+0.16per pick44cpaid+42.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf641…7b6fbacked Panthers65c775.1$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.652172.6%378 W · 143 L+36.7wins+0.07per pick66cpaid+9.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x0df8…3e3dbacked Golden Knights4c740.77$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.126937.7%26 W · 43 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick39cpaid-29.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Panthers45c727$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.0791653.9%494 W · 422 L+39.6wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+8.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Panthers45c726.99$325 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.071,14350.8%581 W · 562 L+11.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+2.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Golden Knights23c693.3$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.47838.5%30 W · 48 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-14.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa1d7…a70cbacked Panthers45c666.67$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.6730946.3%143 W · 166 L-7.2wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c9…89babacked Golden Knights56c615.2$347 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$346.98560%3 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+12.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf33f…085cbacked Golden Knights36c599.99$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21581846%376 W · 442 L+4.1wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xec14…7fafbacked Golden Knights13c577.96$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.8739343%169 W · 224 L+12.7wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb5e7…3c1abacked Golden Knights55c562.96$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.6375155.8%419 W · 332 L+12.1wins+0.02per pick54cpaid+2.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8302…806ebacked Golden Knights26c551.76$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick34cpaid+69.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8e92…cd3dbacked Golden Knights21c532.63$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$110.5221245.8%97 W · 115 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.