NHL · resolved market
Panthers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6293c312ff0d0845ebedf69cdf9e2b91d4ddbdea42041960500777fc6cc3b8f1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Underof Over, Under
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- NHLevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $18,843
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $19,045
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $18,843 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 37 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NHL is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in NHL | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa39a…1246backed Over | 56c | 8,969$5,023 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,022.54 | 83 | 48.2%40 W · 43 L | -4.7wins | -0.06per pick | 54cpaid | -10.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x16b2…a881backed Under | 44c | 6,127$2,696 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,431.06 | 881 | 51.2%451 W · 430 L | +10.4wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +1.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb43…3c74backed Under | 46c | 2,841$1,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,534.15 | 304 | 47.4%144 W · 160 L | -5.3wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf6a3…4ebebacked Over | 51c | 2,681$1,368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,367.86 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.3wins | -0.22per pick | 56cpaid | -43.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42b5…b5b6backed Under | 44c | 2,045$899 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,145.48 | 1,377 | 49.1%676 W · 701 L | +39.2wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f7a…db40backed Under | 47c | 2,000$944 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,056.18 | 119 | 46.2%55 W · 64 L | -4.3wins | -0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x900c…1d7abacked Over | 54c | 1,771$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$956.16 | 412 | 46.4%191 W · 221 L | -24.5wins | -0.06per pick | 52cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5137…1556backed Under | 48c | 1,160$557 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$603.2 | 874 | 47%411 W · 463 L | +3.5wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2129…4222backed Under | 51c | 998.24$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.15 | 405 | 50.9%206 W · 199 L | +8.5wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83b9…6124backed Over | 53c | 974$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$517.82 | 308 | 48.4%149 W · 159 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x23f9…0ba5backed Over | 58c | 312.56$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.58per pick | 58cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee61…debfbacked Over | 53c | 269.39$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.23 | 2,894 | 51.3%1,484 W · 1,410 L | +58.0wins | +0.02per pick | 49cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9dd9…08bdbacked Over | 46c | 265$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.03 | 1,054 | 42.5%448 W · 606 L | -25.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb589…33d4backed Under | 37c | 262.56$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$165.41 | 134 | 35.8%48 W · 86 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfda…4fe6backed Over | 13c | 245.19$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.87 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5139…a8dbbacked Over | 54c | 219$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.3 | 574 | 53.8%309 W · 265 L | +12.6wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5ad…ba78backed Over | 56c | 196.43$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c4…7385backed Under | 50c | 185$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.35 | 236 | 42.8%101 W · 135 L | -4.8wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4231…f63ebacked Over | 54c | 177.24$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.71 | 378 | 47.4%179 W · 199 L | -5.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x52b6…b02ebacked Under | 39c | 102.56$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.56 | 178 | 41%73 W · 105 L | -9.8wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked Over | 53c | 100$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 480 | 46.9%225 W · 255 L | -13.2wins | -0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9edc…b088backed Under | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.5 | 62 | 35.5%22 W · 40 L | +1.4wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x56f6…9f57backed Under | 51c | 92.55$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.97 | 338 | 48.8%165 W · 173 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x742f…d673backed Under | 66c | 88.43$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.78 | 421 | 44.4%187 W · 234 L | -28.0wins | -0.07per pick | 51cpaid | -17%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c8…0300backed Over | 51c | 64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.38 | 601 | 41.9%252 W · 349 L | -8.5wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed Under | 46c | 58$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.32 | 1,143 | 50.8%581 W · 562 L | +11.8wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x45d1…7017backed Over | 51c | 55$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.05 | 84 | 44%37 W · 47 L | -3.9wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8725…eb10backed Under | 44c | 54$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.24 | 629 | 44%277 W · 352 L | -14.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50bb…9aa6backed Under | 46c | 50$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.85 | 72 | 45.8%33 W · 39 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x375e…6c94backed Under | 49c | 50$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.7 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 48cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xab3b…a825backed Under | 48c | 44$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.88 | 60 | 50%30 W · 30 L | -5.1wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -16.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9e62…06f9backed Over | 54c | 37.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 72 | 48.6%35 W · 37 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x227d…ec13backed Over | 57c | 35.09$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd4f9…f619backed Over | 55c | 30$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.7wins | -0.38per pick | 53cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -4.9wins | -0.19per pick | 57cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xc71e…f450backed Over | 54c | 20$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61ff…a37fbacked Over | 54c | 18.56$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.14per pick | 54cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NHL and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Panthers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 5.5this page
- Panthers vs. Golden KnightsPanthers won
- Panthers vs. Golden Knights: O/U 6.5Under won
- Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5)Panthers won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.