Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xac3cd0e0e1c6d52cb6f610200c0b7e5237a0648445bb569bed5aa0865157ebea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $32,583
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,291
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $32,583 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 49 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0ec3…5802backed Yes | 18c | 889.92$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.32 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed Yes | 7c | 723.06$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.19 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2a23…425cbacked Yes | 2c | 648.77$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.7wins | -0.20per pick | 28cpaid | -73.8%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9be9…7017backed Yes | 20c | 531.04$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.39 | 656 | 27.4%180 W · 476 L | +7.1wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 484.07$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.91 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd734…bcd8backed Yes | 16c | 402.43$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.8 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -3.6wins | -0.14per pick | 30cpaid | -54.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed Yes | 11c | 399.99$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 6c | 373.11$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.98 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd630…28edbacked Yes | 14c | 297.97$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.72 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | +61.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f7…e0dabacked Yes | 15c | 204.41$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.67 | 1,861 | 23.8%443 W · 1,418 L | +47.9wins | +0.03per pick | 21cpaid | +13.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6dce…4490backed Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.2 | 1,285 | 19.5%250 W · 1,035 L | +44.3wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b9…cea8backed Yes | 19c | 199.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -26.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae22…8794backed Yes | 16c | 198.79$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.81 | 462 | 32.9%152 W · 310 L | +5.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac16…4f44backed Yes | 17c | 178.32$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.88 | 230 | 35.7%82 W · 148 L | +4.3wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…6679backed Yes | 7c | 175.22$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.9 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc9cb…015fbacked Yes | 7c | 169.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.36 | 200 | 27.5%55 W · 145 L | +10.7wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9394…e78cbacked Yes | 20c | 168.18$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.35 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 13c | 168.09$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.49 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 20c | 166.25$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.55 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde72…b5b1backed Yes | 19c | 159.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.4 | 211 | 31.8%67 W · 144 L | +11.5wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +23.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x77f0…2b1fbacked No | 79c | 131.96$104 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.05 | 3,028 | 49.8%1,509 W · 1,519 L | +16.8wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2e0…0e08backed Yes | 15c | 119.31$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.14per pick | 43cpaid | -47.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x43f2…09a5backed Yes | 17c | 118.42$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 81 | 24.7%20 W · 61 L | -4.4wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a49…54adbacked Yes | 17c | 114.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.27 | 20 | 25%5 W · 15 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -28.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…8a92backed Yes | 24c | 104.24$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.53 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4e15…0cc5backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 106 | 31.1%33 W · 73 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9955…6998backed Yes | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.0wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2d2c…dd89backed Yes | 22c | 100$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8849…765abacked Yes | 21c | 99.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3681…4e48backed No | 78c | 99.22$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 1,375 | 56%770 W · 605 L | +25.7wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab14…e786backed Yes | 13c | 85.63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 112 | 43.8%49 W · 63 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 21c | 81.9$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.43 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x390c…e02abacked Yes | 19c | 77.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 45 | 17.8%8 W · 37 L | -4.3wins | -0.10per pick | 27cpaid | -53.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ddd…06a1backed Yes | 20c | 67.15$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b64…72eabacked Yes | 24c | 65.17$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.62 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 26cpaid | -66.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4f04…6a54backed Yes | 23c | 63.26$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.79 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391c…ea3fbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 20c | 59.41$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 24c | 56.89$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6889…f2e3backed Yes | 24c | 56$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.54 | 51 | 45.1%23 W · 28 L | -3.3wins | -0.06per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd5e…271bbacked Yes | 23c | 50$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.30per pick | 45cpaid | -79.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc35f…f0e6backed Yes | 20c | 50$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -18.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d24…9f38backed Yes | 22c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.07per pick | 29cpaid | +36.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2d79…4261backed Yes | 22c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.43per pick | 43cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4a9…75f9backed No | 79c | 30.71$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.31 | 262 | 53.4%140 W · 122 L | -2.9wins | -0.01per pick | 55cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c82…9728backed No | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 6 | 100%6 W · 0 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed No | 80c | 18.21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.65 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcaca…a0b6backed No | 80c | 12.5$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.5 | 296 | 53.4%158 W · 138 L | -4.6wins | -0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -16.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29?Yes won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.