Weather · resolved market
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x531fa5c7e49e1e0ecc62807a33c77488f8098deab21cc2dc37cc206d781af96c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $68,787
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $70,345
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $68,787 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 100 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9453…bc37backed No | 1c | 8,500$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.5 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f21…b376backed Yes | 8c | 2,229$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,052.37 | 17,355 | 19.9%3,460 W · 13,895 L | +396.7wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +15.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd80a…c714backed Yes | 6c | 1,234$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164 | 1,977 | 18.8%371 W · 1,606 L | +8.0wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x339e…c5fbbacked Yes | 52c | 888.82$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$428.41 | 123 | 48%59 W · 64 L | +13.0wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +24.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xcbbc…b5d0backed Yes | 14c | 833.51$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$718.35 | 4,496 | 19.6%882 W · 3,614 L | +49.5wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x85d5…bbf0backed No | 15c | 780.53$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.28 | 640 | 21.7%139 W · 501 L | -23.6wins | -0.04per pick | 25cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4add…6fe5backed Yes | 5c | 778.32$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$737.87 | 1,452 | 36.8%534 W · 918 L | +12.3wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2be6…e054backed No | 10c | 631.27$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.86 | 343 | 19.5%67 W · 276 L | +22.4wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +19%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe019…f862backed Yes | 6c | 597.91$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$559.38 | 280 | 21.8%61 W · 219 L | +11.1wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2099…3024backed Yes | 7c | 576.19$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$533.27 | 336 | 20.2%68 W · 268 L | +24.9wins | +0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb23b…503fbacked No | 50c | 500$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.5 | 22 | 27.3%6 W · 16 L | -4.1wins | -0.19per pick | 46cpaid | -51%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x652f…eb3dbacked Yes | 5c | 424.17$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$403.46 | 115 | 15.7%18 W · 97 L | +3.6wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1c0f…99d0backed No | 3c | 404.73$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 864 | 20.1%174 W · 690 L | +14.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa895…faacbacked No | 3c | 393.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.82 | 203 | 38.4%78 W · 125 L | +30.4wins | +0.15per pick | 23cpaid | +177%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe864…ce58backed No | 23c | 385.86$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.21 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -53.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 355.93$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$344.35 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8110…5842backed Yes | 5c | 346.28$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$328.78 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc34f…7d2ebacked No | 29c | 320.91$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.74 | 12,173 | 46.8%5,692 W · 6,481 L | -42.2wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4973…5527backed Yes | 6c | 295.27$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.2 | 300 | 46.7%140 W · 160 L | -8.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64c0…b4b9backed Yes | 5c | 257.18$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.76 | 241 | 9.5%23 W · 218 L | -5.5wins | -0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd06f…6719backed Yes | 5c | 256.16$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$242.37 | 920 | 28.7%264 W · 656 L | +29.5wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf13b…db8dbacked Yes | 23c | 249.56$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$192.77 | 86 | 39.5%34 W · 52 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xebe0…274cbacked Yes | 5c | 239.98$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.46 | 15 | 6.7%1 W · 14 L | -0.8wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +38.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 78c | 222.8$174 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.08 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfcda…bb51backed Yes | 80c | 190.23$152 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.6 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc96c…b868backed Yes | 11c | 190$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169.03 | 291 | 37.8%110 W · 181 L | +3.3wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1c1…1bebbacked No | 10c | 150.4$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 276 | 48.6%134 W · 142 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 9c | 141.23$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.96 | 7,481 | 37.5%2,808 W · 4,673 L | +97.4wins | +0.01per pick | 36cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe471…6604backed No | 10c | 138.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.15 | 128 | 56.3%72 W · 56 L | +2.8wins | +0.02per pick | 54cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd15…b352backed No | 34c | 133.39$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.65 | 1,857 | 18.7%347 W · 1,510 L | +77.0wins | +0.04per pick | 15cpaid | +25.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 32c | 116.29$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.1 | 4,120 | 60.8%2,506 W · 1,614 L | +32.7wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4993…aa26backed Yes | 64c | 115.41$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.59 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9729…038abacked Yes | 44c | 115$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.66 | 90 | 37.8%34 W · 56 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c63…93d4backed Yes | 9c | 112.59$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.37 | 10,354 | 37.9%3,919 W · 6,435 L | +417.6wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed No | 29c | 104.01$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.13 | 7,148 | 9.3%666 W · 6,482 L | -1,105.8wins | -0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -75.9%equal weight | 33-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0xe64d…5e09backed No | 18c | 101.65$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.36 | 133 | 15%20 W · 113 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 16cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x40fd…9f9fbacked Yes | 48c | 100.08$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.08 | 111 | 45%50 W · 61 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 48cpaid | -11%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6868…5198backed No | 60c | 100$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1,401 | 27.3%383 W · 1,018 L | +69.5wins | +0.05per pick | 22cpaid | +18.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2512…9030backed Yes | 68c | 100$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.91 | 70 | 45.7%32 W · 38 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x18d7…64ccbacked Yes | 59c | 100$59 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.17 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6d77…a694backed No | 80c | 100$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1,160 | 57.3%665 W · 495 L | +20.1wins | +0.02per pick | 56cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ce3…4291backed No | 36c | 100$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.74 | 2,165 | 23.8%516 W · 1,649 L | +83.8wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 66c | 97.42$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.33 | 2,119 | 36.1%764 W · 1,355 L | -12.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -26.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc472…b96cbacked No | 49c | 94.93$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.67 | 59 | 28.8%17 W · 42 L | -12.2wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed No | 47c | 94.43$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.01 | 12,498 | 19.5%2,441 W · 10,057 L | -2,667.3wins | -0.21per pick | 41cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 26-0.21 edge/pick |
| 0xe013…764fbacked Yes | 28c | 93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.8 | 67 | 44.8%30 W · 37 L | +3.9wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c9f…8e7dbacked Yes | 47c | 84.94$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.11 | 216 | 31%67 W · 149 L | +8.7wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2754…1668backed No | 49c | 83.87$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.21 | 1,018 | 60.2%613 W · 405 L | +13.5wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8d…3257backed Yes | 26c | 77.99$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.71 | 200 | 25%50 W · 150 L | +6.6wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 25c | 77.01$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.64 | 1,840 | 37%681 W · 1,159 L | -8.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ea0…b107backed Yes | 16c | 76.02$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$64.02 | 80 | 20%16 W · 64 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb5fb…4b6ebacked Yes | 75c | 64.07$48 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.16 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93d1…2715backed Yes | 79c | 63.6$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 62cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b87…9414backed Yes | 24c | 60.49$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.97 | 2,001 | 38.4%768 W · 1,233 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e5…0b84backed Yes | 22c | 60$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 21cpaid | +50.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5158…ae1bbacked Yes | 44c | 56.52$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e22…1b31backed No | 48c | 53.5$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.89 | 76 | 75%57 W · 19 L | +11.8wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xde90…dadabacked No | 49c | 53.15$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.25 | 33 | 66.7%22 W · 11 L | +1.5wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +2.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9196…d934backed Yes | 62c | 52.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.88 | 644 | 60.6%390 W · 254 L | +92.2wins | +0.14per pick | 46cpaid | +36.4%equal weight | 65+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x0e86…8a92backed Yes | 64c | 51.2$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.48 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…8e12backed No | 69c | 50.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.16 | 474 | 42.4%201 W · 273 L | -9.3wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -26.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91d9…141dbacked No | 58c | 50.3$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.99 | 1,256 | 38.2%480 W · 776 L | +53.3wins | +0.04per pick | 34cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe752…2200backed Yes | 49c | 50$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.44 | 1,204 | 25.3%305 W · 899 L | +18.2wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2986…b3a9backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2,995 | 31.4%940 W · 2,055 L | +41.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x235e…36cabacked Yes | 48c | 49.99$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.25 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4efc…6391backed No | 36c | 49.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.99 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c69…4622backed No | 67c | 49.94$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.46 | 562 | 65.5%368 W · 194 L | +35.2wins | +0.06per pick | 59cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1a37…1059backed Yes | 50c | 49.82$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.82 | 63 | 39.7%25 W · 38 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -2.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe01f…ff34backed Yes | 64c | 46.97$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.91 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 48cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf034…e6d8backed No | 39c | 46$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b7f…7076backed Yes | 31c | 42.64$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.44 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f0c…1fb7backed No | 72c | 41.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 38 | 50%19 W · 19 L | +4.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdc3f…f038backed No | 38c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.1 | 661 | 41.8%276 W · 385 L | -12.8wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfaa7…605bbacked No | 37c | 40$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf51b…ca1bbacked No | 31c | 39.98$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.39 | 1,274 | 34%433 W · 841 L | +46.9wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +4.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaa93…0bc7backed Yes | 29c | 36.7$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.06 | 3,859 | 23.4%903 W · 2,956 L | +128.4wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +10%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaf96…9009backed Yes | 64c | 36.49$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.15 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb4e5…6fabbacked Yes | 29c | 36$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.56 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x481c…2325backed No | 72c | 34.93$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 123 | 65%80 W · 43 L | +12.2wins | +0.10per pick | 55cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x4469…d709backed Yes | 67c | 34.46$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed Yes | 56c | 32.15$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.08 | 1,011 | 61.2%619 W · 392 L | +14.2wins | +0.01per pick | 60cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59fe…14fdbacked No | 68c | 30$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.4 | 572 | 32.9%188 W · 384 L | -104.6wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 31-0.18 edge/pick |
| 0xb5f4…3fdbbacked Yes | 59c | 30$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.18 | 273 | 35.9%98 W · 175 L | +3.0wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2aa9…a6c9backed No | 36c | 30$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.8 | 43 | 62.8%27 W · 16 L | +2.7wins | +0.06per pick | 56cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14ea…998bbacked No | 36c | 29.39$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.51 | 159 | 37.7%60 W · 99 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b0…137ebacked No | 69c | 28.97$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.99 | 136 | 63.2%86 W · 50 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 64cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc25d…67b3backed Yes | 61c | 28.73$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.29 | 111 | 61.3%68 W · 43 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 59cpaid | -3.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05f4…4298backed No | 53c | 28.25$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x91ea…6f98backed Yes | 50c | 27.13$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.59 | 24 | 33.3%8 W · 16 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1862…b0aebacked Yes | 65c | 26.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.2 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +25.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc867…8b00backed Yes | 47c | 22.1$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.72 | 37 | 43.2%16 W · 21 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 43cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd637…7617backed Yes | 68c | 21.72$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.05 | 135 | 33.3%45 W · 90 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7ce…7f30backed No | 67c | 19.98$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.38 | 160 | 65.6%105 W · 55 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 65cpaid | +1.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c3…e155backed No | 76c | 19.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 254 | 47.6%121 W · 133 L | -18.8wins | -0.07per pick | 55cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x47e6…c039backed No | 76c | 19.84$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.02 | 182 | 42.3%77 W · 105 L | -19.1wins | -0.10per pick | 53cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2a96…b81abacked No | 80c | 19.8$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.84 | 69 | 49.3%34 W · 35 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 54cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc18e…44e3backed Yes | 70c | 18.5$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.57 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -2.7wins | -0.10per pick | 51cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xff65…f1cdbacked No | 60c | 18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.87 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | -3.7wins | -0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf838…ab26backed Yes | 64c | 17.27$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.27 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.17per pick | 58cpaid | +45%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd9…d5aabacked Yes | 68c | 17.07$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -51%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 11 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 29?this page
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 13°C or below on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 14°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 15°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 16°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 19°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on March 29?No won
- Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C or higher on March 29?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.